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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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If you can roll a cash secured put thats gone itm instead of taking a loss, why couldn't you just roll the spreads similar way?
It's what I've been doing lately..
(NOT-ADVICE!!)

I absolutely would roll to avoid the loss.

Worth noting - to stay delta neutral(ish) and be reasonably indifferent to direction, as well as make better use of margin, I'll be doing these on both sides (put credit spreads, and call credit spreads). They help each other out (one does outstanding if one is doing really badly for instance). I'm thinking about this as a semi-perma iron condor.

The benefit of this approach - the insurance put is protecting me from disaster. My (new - just learned this year) working definition of disaster is a short option that can't be rolled effectively. An effective roll is +1 or +2 weeks, net credit, AND strike improvement. That Feb/March move from 800s to 600s so quickly - that was a black swan for me, meaning specifically that I can't roll for a strike improvement any more (even if I add 4 weeks!).

With that working definition of a black swan the first observation is that they are a lot more common than I have previously believed.


Why was that a black swan? I have $76k reserved for each of those puts. I'm now 3 months into rolling those puts for small net credits. Small as in "rounds to 0". Even worse I don't have line of sight to when it'll end, doing what I've been doing. In fact - with my mental model and belief about where TSLA will trade the rest of the year, I could easily arrive at the end of the year and STILL be rolling those 760 puts for small net credits.

With the insurance puts in position any bad move against me that is going to make me worse off than an effective roll, will get stopped by the insurance put and I'll be done with it. That'll take something like that $200 move in 3 weeks kind of situation and back stop me effectively. Those are thankfully rare. It'll free up enough reserved cash that I can make up the income loss from the insurance by taking on more positions.


And yes - I'll be actively managing the position along the way.

The first management technique is to roll the winning leg closer to the share price while keeping the expiration the same. This is both an incremental profit generation technique as well as loss reduction technique, and will always be available when the share price is pushing one side ITM.

The second management technique, as you point out, is to roll the losing leg out a week and to a better strike (for a net credit). For margin purposes I might need to also roll the winning leg out a week to maintain the condor margin sizing.

And the last management technique - just take the loss. By taking the loss earlier it's not unreasonable to stop further losses at the 50% level (say $15 ITM instead of $25 ITM on a $25 spread). Stopping the losses before max loss is arrived at significantly reduces the amount of time it'll take to recoup the loss and get back to earning income.


Bigger idea. What is the purpose of insurance? (Whether home, life, auto, or options?) We buy insurance to mitigate disaster. I prefer a $1000 deductible on my car insurance over a $250 deductible. Why? I don't need the insurance company to cover $1k losses - I can handle those just fine. But if the car gets totaled and I'm left with a big car loan and no car -- that's a disaster.

Same idea with home insurance - I don't need the insurance company to cover me for each and every little thing. I want them when the house burns down.

The way I'm thinking about the insurance puts - I can handle the small losses ($10 or $15 ITM). It's not peanuts but that's also a level I've generated many times over the last year. Where I really want help is that black swan back in Feb, that I'm still dealing with today. If I'd had the insurance puts in place (and considering IV back then they may well have been $100 spreads), then that position would have taken the max loss (or maybe 1/2 if I'd have applied #3 fast enough) then I might have lost $10k minus the premium (I think it was $3k) and I'd have had that position available since then to be earning income. That is 2 or 3 months of opportunity cost so far.
 
I hope you are correct, I'm hoping to end the rolling of my 620 and 625 -p's. I'm still rolling the 680s and see no end in sight of rolling the 760.
I think price will reverse when macros chill out by Thursday, but it depends on Jerome Powell’s ability to exude calm…. And perhaps Tesla announcing FSD subscription ….. contrary to what people think about Elon, I think he cares about the share price more than people think… he totally wants to dethrone Bezos and become Highlander
 
BTO 12/17 $700 strike calls @ $60 - liking these since it balances back to April run up for Q1 earnings (from mid $600 to $730ish) - I plan to hold till about July 14th depending on price action - but am using the near term pressure for upside due to P&D numbers first week of July and expected record breaking earnings 3rd week in July.
 
Is anyone worried about this triple witching thing tomorrow? I have been watching the max pain chart and can't make sense of it. Earlier this week mega spike of 450 puts around 99k OI, today it's 66k OI which I assume was an adjustment after yesterday's fed announcement. Max pain still 560. Any thoughts?
 
Is anyone worried about this triple witching thing tomorrow? I have been watching the max pain chart and can't make sense of it. Earlier this week mega spike of 450 puts around 99k OI, today it's 66k OI which I assume was an adjustment after yesterday's fed announcement. Max pain still 560. Any thoughts?
i have cc630 rolled to 620, ok to be assigned
 
Is anyone worried about this triple witching thing tomorrow? I have been watching the max pain chart and can't make sense of it. Earlier this week mega spike of 450 puts around 99k OI, today it's 66k OI which I assume was an adjustment after yesterday's fed announcement. Max pain still 560. Any thoughts?
Triple witching means there are a lot of options that have been open for a year - lots of low puts will skew the number - really anything under $650 is golden but Max Pain is not readily evident with the amount of contracts open at 1.5M total contracts.
They definitely wont let it fall too much but where it ends up tomorrow is only known by the crystal ball and of course Lycanthrope...... :p
 
Had 5x bull put credit spreads -p625/+p550 expiring tomorrow.
Rolled these yesterday to 10x -p615/+p580 for +$5.50/spread, same expiration. Got slightly better strike, nice credit, and actually lowered my maintenance margin.
Lets see what today brings, might have to roll these out..
How did you do that? Had your time value decayed so much that you could do that? Was your spread ITM from the beginning?
 
I am not sure if someone here also experience this.

Before market open, my plan was to wait to sell the rest of 2/3 cc if price hit 612 and 617. But by watching the SP very closely, I became so nervous & impatient, and thus sold earlier than my original plan.

I think I should not watch the SP that closely, and should execute my plan using limit order.
 
How did you do that? Had your time value decayed so much that you could do that? Was your spread ITM from the beginning?
the spread was sold ages ago, then went itm and I've been rolling it for a while.. explored option chain in IB:s optiontrader, and realized I can tighten the spread, bring down -p strike and lower my margin if I double the contracts.
I don't think time value has much effect here, since expiration day is still the same.
 
the triple witching thing happening this week? Just confuses open interest? But not for weeklies right?
The thing about triple witching is that the options volume is just HUGE compared to routine weeklies. This expiration has been accumulating activity and open option positions for 2 years (the expiration would have opened up ~June 2019).

So one consequence as was mentioned up thread - the max pain number is largely irrelevant this week. A big batch of low strike puts will move that, even though there is no chance of them going ITM. And its usually a big batch of low strike puts with TSLA - in theory a big batch of high strike calls would create the same dynamic, yet there are never any situations like that :)


I find I focus more on the put and call walls that form anyway, between the open contracts and the open interest. Those tell us where action is happening, and break points that will be more expensive to breach. As bxr has also pointed out previously, max pain is like trying to pick the low spot on a long flat road. You can see this dynamic on the max pain site most of us use, if you scroll down into the table that has the loss at each strike. That is an aggregate number so it doesn't tell us about each individual market participant.

Nonetheless when you find the max pain strike you will also find that the neighboring strikes have very little difference in the pain associated with that strike. There is a pretty broad range of strikes that are close to the same aggregate "pain" level.


The last note I have about open interest, put and call walls, is that they are mostly meaningless until the week of expiration. Certainly for the weeklies. You can see that on the site quite simply - look at the OI and volume charts and focus on the Y axis. For weeklies that aren't in their expiration week - the Y axis is probably in 1000's with the high point somewhere under 5,000. The week of expiration though you'll see strikes trading 10's of 000s a day, with open interest in some strikes clearing 50k contracts. Any individual strike that carries open interest of 5k contracts into the final week will just be overwhelmed by that avalanche of activity.
 
Triple witching means there are a lot of options that have been open for a year - lots of low puts will skew the number - really anything under $650 is golden but Max Pain is not readily evident with the amount of contracts open at 1.5M total contracts.
They definitely wont let it fall too much but where it ends up tomorrow is only known by the crystal ball and of course Lycanthrope...... :p
Does this high OI in calls all the way to $1000 strike lead to dumping of delta hedged shares by MMs in the final hour?
By the same logic, one can say the high volume on put side leads to buying back shares undoing the delta hedging earlier on those puts by MMs
 
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Does this high OI in calls all the way to $1000 strike lead to dumping of delta hedged shares by MMs in the final hour?
By the same logic, one can say the high volume on put side leads to buying back shares undoing the delta hedging earlier on those puts by MMs
The short answer is no. The closer we are to expiration, the more meaningless OTM options become. I sell naked options and that's what I observe:
Selling FOTM naked calls reduces my margin requirement due to their - delta nature. However, each day goes by, my margin requirement gradually increases if I do nothing else, because the - delta gets smaller and smaller. When you're long, higher net delta = higher margin requirement and vice versa.
Buying FOTM calls reduces margin requirement on my less OTM short calls (sometimes I go overboard on short calls which pushes me to the short side a bit). However, each day goes by, I have to buy a little more calls because the more OTM calls lose their delta more quickly than the less OTM ones. When you are on the short side, either by shorting stocks or having short calls with higher negative delta than your long stock, you have a separate margin requirement that goes up when your (negative) delta goes down. This needs to be managed as well.
So I'd say anything above 650 (call) or below 570 (put) is pretty meaningless at open today and whether people liquidating them or not has zero impact on the MMs' book. As we progress throughout the day, options within the 570-650 circle will start falling off as well.
 
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Cannot babysit SP today, so I rolled my -p615/+p580 spreads out to July 2nd. Same strikes, got a nice credit of $8.1/contract. I'm really starting to like these bull put spreads, each spread only reserves 5k of maintenance margin. :)
Also rolled all my CC/BPS. Then, opened IC +p560/-p580/-c630/+c650 to pay for their BTC/fees/taxes. Delta 4 & 13.
 
Someone mentioned RSI high... new money coming in? but wouldn't we see that in volume? The price action has been nutty all week... many days I felt like TSLA was holding its own until the NDX 100 ruined the party. I'm hoping for a pop to 620 today in the next two hours.