After all the price cuts around the world it might not be a great day tomorrow for the stock.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
It will be just another typical day of TSLA. TSLA is down while the rest of the world is up.
In your shoes, I would be buying lots of 105 puts for protection. Thankfully, I’m not. That said, the MaxPain graph suggests that tomorrow we will stay around 110, perhaps dropping close to 105 just to scare/test that wall, then maybe break up to 115 to scare/test that wall. I’m prepared for a drop to 95, and everyone should be as well, (been predicted for a month or so), but I’m now doubtful that it will actually happen this week. Perhaps next week, who knows. Given the double bounce at the -0.786 Fibonacci level, I’m actually more “worried” about a sudden reversal and spike in two weeks to the current Jan 20th MaxPain ($150). Also highly unlikely, but still $5/day is nothing for TSLA. I don’t want to lose shares (-c110s). If we climb and are rejected at $125, then a drop to $95 is more likely. Expect more volatility until earnings. GLTA. Stay safe out there.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
So that was fear of the FED after a strong jobs report. Market will interpret any news as bad news right now. It is what it is.
myt-e-s-l-a
Member
Tesla cuts prices to boost demand for Shanghai output
REUTERS 2:40 AM ET 1/6/2023
SHANGHAI, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Tesla is cutting prices for its Model 3 and Model Y cars in some markets beyond China to stoke demand for output from its Shanghai plant, a person with direct knowledge of the plan said on Friday.
...
The U.S. automaker on Friday announced price cuts for the two models in Japan, South Korea, Australia and China
.....
* TESLA MOTORS JAPAN - TO CUT PRICES OF MODEL 3, MODEL Y BY AS MUCH AS 9.9%
...
The prices of some Tesla models in South Korea were cut on Friday.
The price cuts differed from model to model but ranged from about 6 million won to 10 million won ($4,725 to $7,875), the official said. ($1 = 1,269.7800 won)
...
On Friday, Tesla slashed prices for all versions of its Model 3 and Model Y cars in China by between 6% to 13.5%. The starting price for Model 3, for instance, was cut to 229,900 yuan ($33,427) from 265,900 yuan.
The latest cut in China, along with a price cut in October and incentives extended to Chinese buyers over the past three months, mean a 13% to 24% reduction in Tesla's prices from September in its second-largest market after the United States
The cuts came just days after Beijing ended a subsidy programme that helped build the world's largest EV market. Softening demand has forced Tesla and its rivals to absorb the brunt of that decision.
...
Tesla shares fell 5.9% in premarket trading after the price cuts to $104.
REUTERS 2:40 AM ET 1/6/2023
SHANGHAI, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Tesla is cutting prices for its Model 3 and Model Y cars in some markets beyond China to stoke demand for output from its Shanghai plant, a person with direct knowledge of the plan said on Friday.
...
The U.S. automaker on Friday announced price cuts for the two models in Japan, South Korea, Australia and China
.....
* TESLA MOTORS JAPAN - TO CUT PRICES OF MODEL 3, MODEL Y BY AS MUCH AS 9.9%
...
The prices of some Tesla models in South Korea were cut on Friday.
The price cuts differed from model to model but ranged from about 6 million won to 10 million won ($4,725 to $7,875), the official said. ($1 = 1,269.7800 won)
...
On Friday, Tesla slashed prices for all versions of its Model 3 and Model Y cars in China by between 6% to 13.5%. The starting price for Model 3, for instance, was cut to 229,900 yuan ($33,427) from 265,900 yuan.
The latest cut in China, along with a price cut in October and incentives extended to Chinese buyers over the past three months, mean a 13% to 24% reduction in Tesla's prices from September in its second-largest market after the United States
The cuts came just days after Beijing ended a subsidy programme that helped build the world's largest EV market. Softening demand has forced Tesla and its rivals to absorb the brunt of that decision.
...
Tesla shares fell 5.9% in premarket trading after the price cuts to $104.
TSLA is transitioning to production volume versus profits. As Elon said, unit in place of profit. TSLA strength is excess factory capacity so they can increase production and cut prices. In theory if it all works it should put the hurt on the competition but some shareholder pain in the near term. TSLAs in China are significantly less (43% per CNBC) than those in US. That's the 2nd price drop in China in a few months time.
I checked online inventory and there's a bunch of 'buy now' MYLRs in my area. Maybe the next shoe to drop is lower US pricing.
I checked online inventory and there's a bunch of 'buy now' MYLRs in my area. Maybe the next shoe to drop is lower US pricing.
Tesla was already pushing for max production globally so there is not much transitioning in strategy actually taking place here. It was inevitable that with increasing production there would come a time where prices had to drop. Unfortunately, due to macro conditions this is occurring earlier than most anticipated.
It will be interesting to see if Tesla can find other avenues outside of price drops to meaningfully stimulate demand. In the US we need to see the IRA boosting demand enough to keep margins up through any recession. In China, it will be important to watch where order backlog goes. Since Tesla cannot stuff dealer lots with cars it is important that they can show some sort of backlog to alleviate demand concerns.
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Model Y 7 seater custom orders in my area says Feb to April. Model 3's still say Jan and February.
If they are planning to lower the pricing in the USA they should have done it yesterday and the same time as the other cuts. I don't see many other bad news in the short term. I hope we beat on everything during ER Jan 25th and Zack and Elon provide an accurate, clear and safe guidance so we can beat analyst consensus from now on.
More Puts Assigned:
Jan 2024 250s and 280s
Jan 2025 330s.
I was confident the SP had found the bottom, but the price cuts are going to lower everyone's earnings estimates, which means lower PEs going forward. I don't know where the bottom is going to be....
Jan 2024 250s and 280s
Jan 2025 330s.
I was confident the SP had found the bottom, but the price cuts are going to lower everyone's earnings estimates, which means lower PEs going forward. I don't know where the bottom is going to be....
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SebastienBonny
Member
Didn’t someone from Tesla China already confirm that?
Did the stock increase of 7% premarket when Tesla hiked prices on their models because of inflation? Now that prices of commodities are going down and Tesla reduce prices back to the numbers they were we are going down 7% when Tesla adjust for demand?
I needed a +7% day. Seems we get the opposite.
Even if they issued a press release nobody is going to believe them and rightly so. I think we just have to wait for Q4 ER and the commentary from management. I really think FSD needs to become the trump card for 2023 and 2024. As long as Tesla grows their installed base it should help with future software subscription revenue.
The fed is doubling down on reducing inflation and we are seeing the impacts. But there seems to be a sense that we are at the bottom and hence the slow grind down.
I’m personally not buying anything here or selling any BPS/puts, will likely wait until Q4 ER to do anything with the dry powder I have and it’s ok if I miss the bottom.
SebastienBonny
Member
Makes no sense. Everything is considered negative until we get numbers.
Sold those for 2.60$ Wednesday , I am hesitating to close them, however what would I replace them with? Selling CCs next week ATM? Then we get a bounce to head up to $150 20/1 Max Pain target?
Pretty happy with the bounce at open and support around 100.
Was ready to close everything in CAs we were heading for another -14% day
Going to be skiing with the kids today. Gonna manage my margin call at the end. Usually business.
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