SebastienBonny
Member
This is a transition year I think.Don't think I've ever seen such a boring outlook for the next quarter in years, if ever. Right now it does not feel like we are breaking past 200 any time soon. Not sure if I'm capitulating but I'm tempted to go @Max Plaid and sell ATM weekly calls on most of my shares and just wheel aggressively if they do get called away.
I don't know if it's the stock performance or the Elon/Twitter drama but I'm feeling less compelled to hold every share with a death grip these days. The memories of the great rallies over the last 10 years are starting to get fuzzier and I just don't see us breaking out of this range anytime soon. What's the next real catalyst? A Fed pause maybe in May, but I'm not sure if that will even make a difference.
We have CT coming and Megapack ramping (my guess is 20 GWh by eoy), so I think we will be rather flat for quite some time.
My catalysts are CT ramping, Megapack full production and a compact model. We're looking at 24 or 25 to achieve this and to see it in the quarterly reports.
With current numbers and a 50 P/E we're at a SP of 200 maximum.
I think this is the time to sell CC's a bit more aggressive and harvest more shares as I don't see us trading a lot above 200 in the near term.
Like I said, compact model will open a whole new market, but we're talking about 2 years before that to happen.