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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
look at the volume in the closing minute , jump to $278 and back.... fishy?
BY FAR THE LARGEST VOLUME of the day... mmm
BY FAR THE LARGEST VOLUME of the day... mmm
At 3:59pm STO 12x -C300 10/20 @ $8.45
I have the shares so I don't care if they get taken then (if so I'll sell ATM puts to get them back and use the premium toward bridging any loss if it ran more). Using it to practice burning theta to the end of the term, unless a too-good-to-pass up opportunity to BTC presents in between.
I also don't believe we'll breech $300 without a decent retracement between (or one even next week on market weakness) or after it attempts a new high where I’ll have a chance to BTC for gains or roll if not.
Choppy week may continue next week with Wednesday FOMOC, although impressive TSLA held over $271 all day while rest of market and some Beta stocks took a larger bath.
Perhaps one more go for $285-$290 and then elevator down to $260-$255 so we can BTC our short calls
I have the shares so I don't care if they get taken then (if so I'll sell ATM puts to get them back and use the premium toward bridging any loss if it ran more). Using it to practice burning theta to the end of the term, unless a too-good-to-pass up opportunity to BTC presents in between.
I also don't believe we'll breech $300 without a decent retracement between (or one even next week on market weakness) or after it attempts a new high where I’ll have a chance to BTC for gains or roll if not.
Choppy week may continue next week with Wednesday FOMOC, although impressive TSLA held over $271 all day while rest of market and some Beta stocks took a larger bath.
Perhaps one more go for $285-$290 and then elevator down to $260-$255 so we can BTC our short calls
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Sold 10x 9/22 -c292.5 and opened 20x 9/22 +p245/-p255 ... basing this on GEX for next week.
Intent is to buy back or close positions early.
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I didn't see any jump to $278 in the closing minute. Maybe bad data from your quote provider?
Hmm that is strange. Seeing it on think or swim, but that kind of spike should require huge volume which didn't happen... maybe a glitch.
10M volume at closing cross is decently high, but consistent with today's triple witching
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
9/29 +c285 at MMD for $4.76, feeling great until the PM drop.
9/22 +p250/-p260s at MMD for $1.30, similar feeling.
Credit rolled various CCs to -c280s (various dates to 10/6).
Generally a great trading day for me. I hit the MMD at 10AM almost perfectly, trading everything within a few minutes of the bottom, across multiple accounts, getting near the best prices possible. Unfortunately, I should have paired those BPS with BCS a few hours later. Seriously considered it at $276, but decided that IV would be higher on Monday. Now, I’m afraid that might have been a mistake because of yesterday’s bearish trades highlighted in yellow below:
Edit: Maybe I’m being too pessimistic. Looking at the monthly SP chart, we’re seeing higher lows, and mostly higher highs, all week. Perhaps the uptrend channel is still in place until October. I will continue to believe it, until proven otherwise.
Yes, you read that right: 24,000x 10/20 -c225s; 24,000x 11/17 -c270s; 6000x 9/22 -c282.50s, plus two large directional straddles: 2400x 10/20 -c280s/+p280s and 1850x 9/29 -c290s/+p265s. Almost all trades are bearish, except some 0DTE trades. I’m not sure about the DITM put spread at 15:09, could be just closing. Anyway, it looks like the whales have decided (or are causing) the SP goes down from here. Does anyone understand the highlighted Net Deltas? I don’t routinely watch these values, but I thought they were normally positive for calls and negative for puts. Does this further signal that more calls are being sold? Furthermore, I’m seeing more and more options being SOLD, instead of bought, so each week’s “MaxPain” might not be as representative of the real MaxPain as we have been used to in the past.
My plan is to get out of my BPS and long calls early Monday AM, hopefully on a high IV peak, and then wait out the remainder just holding all my various short CCs. I still think testing the $320 channel top is possible by 10/20, but I’m not as confident now. Just like @dl003 suggested, consensus targets are not necessarily a good thing. As always, GLTA.
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Net deltas should be +delta(calls bought+puts sold) - delta(calls sold+puts bought)
I was actually looking to be out of weeklies for the P&D, or at worst open a modest ATM straddle the day before to capture the IV crush
Psychology is weird - yesterday's close in the red felt bad, but the reality is that we were nearly +$30 up from the previous Friday, sometimes we need to zoom out a bit
Also I expected a pin on 270, and was very surprised to see 275 coming into play towards the close
It was during the closing cross, which was 10m shares traded. Sounds a lot until you look at AAPL which was 100m volume for the day, 30m in the cross and GOOGL, 38m for the day, 10m in the cross!
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Thing is.. aapl and Goog lower in that volume. So certainly big boys cooking something into the weekend..
I've been thinking, let's face it, that never stops in this game...
I have 60x Jan 2025 +c200's @$58, bought around SP $173 in May that some of you may recall I immediately sold July -c200's against, expecting the stock to go sideways, and boom, there you go, DITM within a couple of weeks. In fact it was far worse than that as I also sold -c200's against the +c140's I had bought, so yeah, was a big task to try unwind that mess
I did quite well to recover, ended up with 54x Sep 2024 -c200's, which are now blocking most of those +c200's... I could offload the lot and take +$25 per contract profit, but that's not very interesting. What are my choices, and in fact what have I already been doing to heal the position:
- leave as they are = downside hedge, wait until expiry and then roll the short side for some premium
- buy back gradually with weekly profits
- yeah, close the lot and start fresh
- close the short side at -c200 and form a straddle -300
Aha, the S-word, I already like it!
So playing around in OptionStrat I see that a Sep 2024 -300 strangle pays more than the current -c200's, a slightly more conservative short strangle -p280.-c300, breaks-even
The benefit of this is that the risk is halved and all my current intrinsic loss is flipped to potential extrinsic gains... I struggle to see $TSLA below $300 in 12 months from now, if it's above $300, which would be most likely, I'll have gained the premiums, plus $100 strike higher on the call side. If the SP dumps, well it's shares for a net $180, plus I get to keep the underlying LEAPS
So yeah, might set this up on Monday - of course this would tie-up a lot of capital in reserved cash, so I'd have to ease-off the weeklies, which isn't perhaps a bad idea anyway, well sell a handful of shitcalls for beer money
I have 60x Jan 2025 +c200's @$58, bought around SP $173 in May that some of you may recall I immediately sold July -c200's against, expecting the stock to go sideways, and boom, there you go, DITM within a couple of weeks. In fact it was far worse than that as I also sold -c200's against the +c140's I had bought, so yeah, was a big task to try unwind that mess
I did quite well to recover, ended up with 54x Sep 2024 -c200's, which are now blocking most of those +c200's... I could offload the lot and take +$25 per contract profit, but that's not very interesting. What are my choices, and in fact what have I already been doing to heal the position:
- leave as they are = downside hedge, wait until expiry and then roll the short side for some premium
- buy back gradually with weekly profits
- yeah, close the lot and start fresh
- close the short side at -c200 and form a straddle -300
Aha, the S-word, I already like it!
So playing around in OptionStrat I see that a Sep 2024 -300 strangle pays more than the current -c200's, a slightly more conservative short strangle -p280.-c300, breaks-even
The benefit of this is that the risk is halved and all my current intrinsic loss is flipped to potential extrinsic gains... I struggle to see $TSLA below $300 in 12 months from now, if it's above $300, which would be most likely, I'll have gained the premiums, plus $100 strike higher on the call side. If the SP dumps, well it's shares for a net $180, plus I get to keep the underlying LEAPS
So yeah, might set this up on Monday - of course this would tie-up a lot of capital in reserved cash, so I'd have to ease-off the weeklies, which isn't perhaps a bad idea anyway, well sell a handful of shitcalls for beer money
More thoughts on the above... I was worried about writing this as it would tie-up my cash for a year, but of course I can buy some puts to limit the required margin - I never think of this as I don't have a margin account
Now bringing that to bear, I'm thinking of a different approach... no idea what this position would be called, I'm unable to model it with OptionStrat:
BTO Jan 2026 +p250 @$56
STO Jan 2024 -c300 @$23
STO Jan 2024 -p300 @$43
The short straddle pays for the long puts and as the short premiums are more than the delta between the long and short puts, the position cannot lose in case of a market dump and can only lose to the upside, but then the underlying LEAPS gain value too, the straddle can be rolled
Writing the long puts as LEAPS means the long keeps it's value relatively well when the stock rises, and can be written against until 2026 - so not much profit in the first straddle expiry, but after that the long puts are for free
Now bringing that to bear, I'm thinking of a different approach... no idea what this position would be called, I'm unable to model it with OptionStrat:
BTO Jan 2026 +p250 @$56
STO Jan 2024 -c300 @$23
STO Jan 2024 -p300 @$43
The short straddle pays for the long puts and as the short premiums are more than the delta between the long and short puts, the position cannot lose in case of a market dump and can only lose to the upside, but then the underlying LEAPS gain value too, the straddle can be rolled
Writing the long puts as LEAPS means the long keeps it's value relatively well when the stock rises, and can be written against until 2026 - so not much profit in the first straddle expiry, but after that the long puts are for free
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
[off topic] tomorrow ARM options tradestart. Copy paste VFS, maybe a bit slower [on topic]
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