Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

[off topic] tomorrow ARM options tradestart. Copy paste VFS, maybe a bit slower [on topic]

Doubt it, the stock didn't go much higher after IPO and already pulled back. VFS looked like a well orchestrated scam given the limited float

ARM on the other had is a well established company making a product that people actually want, Apple are one of their clients, I believe, so I don't expect fireworks

 

[dl003]

If Q3 P&D & ER is a dud, this is what my projection will be.

 

[Max Plaid]

If Q3 P&D & ER is a dud, this is what my projection will be. View attachment 974647

That would be quite the dump!

I'm rather hoping that Tesla already guiding for lower Q3 production is already priced-in, and other than the S&X price drop, hasn't been so many cuts this quarter (inventory vehicle maybe an exception)

Still, might buy some October 27 +p200's, they're less than $1, so very small price for potential big win, November +p200's are more appealing, but twice the price... will think about it, but likely go with one, or 50/50 perhaps

 

[tivoboy]

I've been thinking, let's face it, that never stops in this game...

There’s only one way to do this… Thesis, Game plan (derivation of Thesis), execution.. repeat

 

[juanmedina]

If Q3 P&D & ER is a dud, this is what my projection will be. View attachment 974647

Any thoughts about a recession and how will that affect the stock?

 

[Jim Holder]

Cary's levels for Monday:

Pushing through $280.93 today should set up follow-though buying and gap fill to $289.03 where we can top out for the week.
$289.03 would be a good zone to sells longs/calls and/or buy puts targeting the upper $250's channel bottom.

A close Monday above $289.03 (unlikely) can trigger target of $315.61 within a couple weeks. Same if closes so end of the week.

Intraday support is $272.49, breaking below we can anticipate $267.39 and bounce back towards trying $289.03 again in 3-5 days.

A Monday close below $267.39 can bring $257.06 in 1-2 days. Can go short overnight for that target. It can bottom out there and bounce aiming for $289.03 again.

Overall: $289.03 weekly high containment; $259.14 weekly low containment.

 

[dl003]

Any thoughts about a recession and how will that affect the stock?

Its already affected the stock. Higher rates, lower ASP, anticipated spike in unemployment etc... the story has been told in the chart and all I do is navigate the chart until the smoke is clear.

 

[tivoboy]

Any thoughts about a recession and how will that affect the stock?

Recession bad
Stocks go down
Very sad
Buy on the dip
then be glad

 

[khill]

If Q3 P&D & ER is a dud, this is what my projection will be. View attachment 974647

Looking at Troy’s estimates, and assuming his estimate turns out accurate, it seems P & D will be a dud unless analysts bring down estimates by 20-25K between now and end of September. Unless energy or recognition of FSD deferred revenue compensates in a big way, earnings might be dud as well.

Just to make sure I read the chart correctly, your projection is that the stock will start to go down from P&D (October 2nd) announcement to end of October and reach around 180?

 

[Max Plaid]

So, this week's first wildcards are Turkey pushing for a GigaFactory and now Saudis allegedly approaching Tesla too

Personally I'd like a steady, boring dance around 270 while I reposition things

Edit: and now some meeting with major banks and large companies with Chinese regulators, including Tesla

 

[EVMeister]

Saudis allegedly approaching Tesla too

Oh no, not again.

 

[dl003]

Looking at Troy’s estimates, and assuming his estimate turns out accurate, it seems P & D will be a dud unless analysts bring down estimates by 20-25K between now and end of September. Unless energy or recognition of FSD deferred revenue compensates in a big way, earnings might be dud as well.

Just to make sure I read the chart correctly, your projection is that the stock will start to go down from P&D (October 2nd) announcement to end of October and reach around 180?

The stock will start going down as soon as 290 is reached. At first it will look like a small pullback, only to get worse once P&D is released.

 

[OrthoSurg]

If Q3 P&D & ER is a dud, this is what my projection will be. View attachment 974647

Are you going to close your long positions based on certain ER numbers or as soon at TSLA gets rejected at 290?

 

[dl003]

Are you going to close your long positions based on certain ER numbers or as soon at TSLA gets rejected at 290?

I already closed most of my long positions at 278.

 

[khill]

The stock will start going down as soon as 290 is reached. At first it will look like a small pullback, only to get worse once P&D is released.

Already down $10 to 364 today. Does the chart/flows still say 290 is still in the cards over the next week or two?

 

[Jim Holder]

What a dump and a bit too early but I'm not complaining.
Closed my short calls @$263.80 in case it bounces here. Will STO again on highs, watching for now.

QTA levels for today (look at that bottom wick leading back up to range low, let's see if it holds):

 

[juanmedina]

Are you going to close your long positions based on certain ER numbers or as soon at TSLA gets rejected at 290?

I want to close my LEAPs if we go up the week of P&D and maybe sell a few shares.

I just sold all my covered calls for this week hopping for a bounce. The crowed trade of selling 290cc for this week was the right one .

 

[dl003]

Already down $10 to 364 today. Does the chart/flows still say 290 is still in the cards over the next week or two?

sure, but I'm not betting on the last mile.

 

[Max Plaid]

Odd price action given that multiple countries are falling over themselves to land a Tesla factory and their so-called competitors are on strike

I can only put it down to this China meeting causing uncertainly

Anyway, for my side, I BTO 100x 11/17 +p200's @$2.3 and then STO 100x 9/22 -p255's @$1.65 to recuperate some of the premium, small risk as there's 8x expiries to roll them down if needed, hopefully these expire and I do something similar next week, then the puts are for free after that

Of course the only issue with writing 100x $55 wide put spread is that it eats up $550k cash margin...

Edit: and I closed-out 20x -c270 & 20x -c280's this week for 65% profits, I'll take that... now need to recover to get rid of the 20x -p270

 

[Jim Holder]

Day #4 tracking QTA generated levels for TSLA vs. actual price action.
So far it's hugging Monday's range low line, curious to see if/when it floats above 2AVWAP and toward range high (may be after Wednesday FOMOC if at all).