Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

You literally said we were not going down to 200 when SP because SP broke out of 252 and this call was made after the poor ER call. I even replied how that call was more mind blowing than your under 200 call. I was on board and you said 240 was going to be the bounce after all said and done, and even in this reply you mean 240 in 2024.

So I mean you didn't get the exact numbers or maybe the time frame but the zig zag is close enough.

It's not appropriate to argue with @dl003 who is more than generous with his time to post in here and help us all. At the end of the day we make our own decisions and any complaints are to be directed at ourselves alone.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Are you expecting TSLA not to be at 240 by 12/29 when it's around there now?
Just curious about your thesis so I can learn.

Actually I don't care and not caring helped me compounding monthly premium.
Stocks go up and down. When we were at 280/290, I still had the 225 contract and look what I was able to do with it.
A lost position is only lost when you react emotionally. At 290 (almost) everybody thought we were going to a new ATH and look what happened then.
I was able to go from a 220 CC to 240 CC and get a good amount of premium in 6, 7 months.
Of course this won't last forever, but even at a SP of 260/270 I will be able to monthly roll this contract for a decent premium. Meantime I'm adding cash to be able to add more contracts and when things go wrong and I'm losing track of the SP with this contract, I can let it expire or roll it way further at a higher SP and leave it there until a pullback occurs.

I'm certainly not saying you can do this better by closing and reopening on lows/highs, but at the moment this proves to be my best strategy without spending a lot of time.

Of course I have other TSLA to benefit from a possible moon-event .

 

[mickificki]

It's not appropriate to argue with @dl003 who is more than generous with his time to post in here and help us all. At the end of the day we make our own decisions and any complaints are to be directed at ourselves alone.

I agree. DL does a lot of work that he doesn't have to share. I don't like this quibbling. This is like the drunk guy showing up at the craps table placing his bet and the dice hitting his arm and everyone crapping out after the roller's been on fire for an hour...

can we just stick to trades and ideas?

 

[Singuy]

Even if you sold 252 and bought 225, you would still have made money. I'm sorry if I would have made you money instead of a crap ton of money. My bad.
I meant what I said. @juanmedina asked what I thought the SP would be at the end of this year. I said 240. Is it not approaching the end of the year right now? You said I said the SP would stay under 200. I NEVER SAID THAT and the screenshot was to prove that.

Correct you never said SP would stay under 200 because you said it would bounce to 240. The time frame was suppose to play out longer and I'm not disagreeing with that call, I was pretty bearish too.

However all those calls were then revised because you made a mistake and thought it was a different wave? I don't know...you just dismiss when I bring up the 10y but I feel you might be able to be more accurate if you do some TA on the 10year because Tsla doesn't move in a vacuum.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

funny detail: Last week's turning 10 AAPL P 172.50 to 7 C 190 both for next week finally turned into a little profit. (doing 1.13) Think I'll take that one out now, for a nice little dinner again. (new habit: profits of trades, that are just for fun, are invested in nice dinners to make up for me sometimes outing frustrations behind the screen (in fact I do, but internally only, which the wife will notice anyway)

 

[Jim Holder]

@dl003 fortunately yesterday I rolled -C225 11/17 to next week -C235 11/24.

I'm currently holding:
15x -C230 11/17 @1.00 (currently 6.32)
30x -C235 11/24 @ 3.15 (currently 6.10)
15x -C240 11/24 @1.00 (currently 4.10)
10x - C250 11/24 @ 2.00 (currently 1.75)

Is it necessary to roll the 11/24 -C235 and -C240 to a higher strike or wait to confirm $236 rejection (so far looking like it)?
Plus we have a new 224-231 gap right below...

 

[dl003]

Correct you never said SP would stay under 200 because you said it would bounce to 240. The time frame was suppose to play out longer and I'm not disagreeing with that call, I was pretty bearish too.

However all those calls were then revised because you made a mistake and thought it was a different wave? I don't know...you just dismiss when I bring up the 10y but I feel you might be able to be more accurate if you do some TA on the 10year because Tsla doesn't move in a vacuum.

I did not revise the waves. I gave you 2 plans. When it started out following plan B, I switched my end game accordingly. So what if it reached the top in plan B and the bottom in plan A? Levels in both plans were carefully selected to the point even if one misses, you would still have made at least 10% in return.

I'm not gonna comment on US10Y anymore. You do whatever you want. Remember to put real money on your US10Y read and let us know how that goes.

Now, let's start with plan B. If P&D comes in tomorrow hot, beating expectation by 20k again, then we may expect 269 to be reached, resulting in something like this.
View attachment 978740

That dead cat is, however, still going to fail, and head backdown going into and continue after ER. However, it's not going to be a disaster, with 225 as the target.
View attachment 978741

Big picture, the 279 - 225 down move is going to be the 2nd leg of a sideway correction that started at 298, like so.
View attachment 978742
From there, TSLA will either going up to make new ATH in 2024, or it will do another dead cat, before breaking out to new ATHs.
View attachment 978744

However, I call this plan B because its probability is extremely low, both on the lower and the higher timeframes.

 

[UncaNed]

It's not appropriate to argue with @dl003 who is more than generous with his time to post in here and help us all. At the end of the day we make our own decisions and any complaints are to be directed at ourselves alone.

This exactly! However, I appreciate that the ensuing discussion will help me avoid making wrong assumptions going forwards, and following it with my limited knowledge has been a helpful excercise.

 

[dl003]

@dl003 fortunately yesterday I rolled -C225 11/17 to next week -C235 11/24.

I'm currently holding:
15x -C230 11/17 @1.00 (currently 6.32)
30x -C235 11/24 @ 3.15 (currently 6.10)
15x -C240 11/24 @1.00 (currently 4.10)
10x - C250 11/24 @ 2.00 (currently 1.75)

Is it necessary to roll the 11/24 -C235 and -C240 to a higher strike or wait to confirm $236 rejection (so far looking like it)?
Plus we have a new 224-231 gap right below...

I'd leave those alone. Market should pause for a breather as early as next week.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

-C247.5 11/17 for $1.02 (and ready to roll if necessary)

Collected another $2.45 (extra) premium to "upgrade" to -C $235, what could be too much of a SP for this Friday, based on the call-walls indicating a 230-ish close by then (which still would leave an island reversal (indicating a move to the upside!!))

 

[juanmedina]

I sold 11/17 $235's for $5. Things at work are not great.

Closed them at $3.25 and replaced them with $240's at $2.15.

Any guesses for next week? Maybe next week China number will be great and we will get closer to the Cybertruck event which should pump the stock.

 

[Jim Holder]

PFOF FTW

As an additional data point, $235, 236, 240 top as of now:

 

[john tanglewoo]

Considering the 10 year rate determines borrowing rates for Tesla and any decrease in rates price in demand with a very high correlation and a strong beta, I care.

Plus you told me to sell CC when sp was 252 as the local top a month ago because we are suppose to be under 200 (or bearish at least) until 2024 so I did. Of course 252 was not the top and we are not staying under 200 but hey its all guess work so whatever.

I did this exercise last week. TSLA doesn't strongly correlate with US10YR.

Hell, TSLA's correlation to S&P is only 0.5%, again not much.

 

[john tanglewoo]

Also,

Opened:
-C275 2/24 for $9.20 80x
-C275 2/24 for $9.25 20x

Reminder that last week I opened:
-C250 1/24 for $4.70 190x

This is how I am continuing to make up for the money spent on buying the 150-180 put spread for Jan 24. Obviously that put spread was insurance, but I am happy to try and collect some premium to make up for it.

Note I am anticipating probably having to manage these as the Febs are after earnings, but who knows. I may be able to get out early before EOY.

 

[Jim Holder]

235 sell orders filled...

 

[SAPharmD]

Was that $235.95 enough to count as the "high" for this run?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

And here we go! (down)
[edit] apparantly a false move to fool me ..., but I think we've really had the best for today [/Edit]

 

[Jim Holder]

@dl003 Looks like $236 rejection in play, how far down is the retracement before bounce (to time our moves), gap area around $224 and we should close our NTM short calls there?

 

[LAexpress]

@dl003 Looks like $236 rejection in play, how far down is the retracement before bounce (to time our moves), gap area around $224 and we should close our NTM short calls there?

View attachment 990664

This reaction feel’s possibly premature to me….

 

[Jim Holder]

This reaction feel’s possibly premature to me….

Could be! I'm a noob which is why I asked the house oracle ;- )