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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Why not add a short put leg at 230 and do a condor? double dip. too risky?

Was thinking about doing a short put leg at 230 and a short call leg at 270, waiting for SP to hit 250 so it right in the middle. Expiration 12/15.

I have decided not to be the ping pong ball. I sell short Calls when the stock is up. I sell short Puts if the stock is down. I won't sell both a short Call and a short Put in one iron condor transaction. I get better results if I sell the pieces individually. I made $7.50 on the -240 Puts. I Sold -270 Calls for next Friday to offset some of the Theta decay on my +270 Calls for Jan 5.
 
I see some people getting really bullish. I don't know what to think and I am thinking that Tesla might provide lower guidance than expected for 2025.


Did you mean 2024?

And I feel like they were pretty clear to expect lower guidance for that already on the last call where they suggested below 50% for a bit? We went over the math a while back on where would large increases in production come from with no new factories and CT still ramping (and only targeting maybe 250k units anyway) and nobody seemed to have a great answer.... (not to mention what they'd likely need to do with pricing to move an extra 500-700k 3/Y even if they were able to produce that many extra in existing facilities)
 
Did you mean 2024?

And I feel like they were pretty clear to expect lower guidance for that already on the last call? We went over the math a while back on where would large increases in production come from with no new factories and CT still ramping (and only targeting maybe 250k units anyway) and nobody seemed to have a great answer.

Yes and we know how WS doesn't even care about what management says during the ER call and they will still dump the stock even though they were really clear.
 
Yes and we know how WS doesn't even care about what management says during the ER call and they will still dump the stock even though they were really clear.
It's all obvious, though, no? You (and WS) don't trade the news, you trade on what other traders would do on the news. And generally, they buy on the rumour and sell on the news. They're in it to make money, and HODL takes longer than options. Hence, we're here and not in the normal investor topic 😅
 
Not afraid of a rocket? Or are those against other positions/calculations?
Not reallty, sold against burner +c's and only a third of available contracts...

Edit: on the pop to 246.57, I nearly reset my sell order to $2.70, glad I didn't as it hit $2.69 then pulled-back, I would have been somewhat vexed! I leave the $3.1 there, but with 30x -p240, 60x -c240 & 100x -c260 still in play for this week, sideways works better for me, need some Theta to wash out, which starts to pick up into close today
 
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We can say we have had a triple top of +246.50 after an intermediate high of +252.50. so it is the green downward channel that still holding and SP now bound to leave the often traded grey zone, falling through the yellow non-support-zone. 234 possibly being the next stop if you ask me. (and when the crowd is shouting "to the moon", we mostly are about at the point of return)
Schermafbeelding 2023-12-06 om 19.17.49.png
 
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We can say we have had a triple top of +246.50 after an intermediate high of +252.50. so it is the green downward channel that still holding and SP now bound to leave the often traded grey zone, falling through the yellow non-support-zone. 234 possibly being the next stop if you ask me. (and when the crowd is shouting "to the moon", we mostly are about at the point of return)
View attachment 997015
Hard to say. We are getting closer to Q4 record P&D by the day. Model Y has broken another annual all-time sales record - this one formerly held by the Toyota Corolla for some 30 years in Denmark (I think that was the country). Eventually mainstream media will have no choice but to report actual good news. That being said, FOMO on the rumor used to start a month out with Tesla, and now it seems to be maybe a week out if at all. Also the downward resistance lines are getting closer as they come down, and eventually breaking them should be bullish.
 
We can say we have had a triple top of +246.50 after an intermediate high of +252.50. so it is the green downward channel that still holding and SP now bound to leave the often traded grey zone, falling through the yellow non-support-zone. 234 possibly being the next stop if you ask me. (and when the crowd is shouting "to the moon", we mostly are about at the point of return)
View attachment 997015
I gotta say, I don’t think this price action is positive.. so many failed tops it’s staring to look like the French or Swiss alps!

I know on the slightly longer term chart, we’re looking at higher LOWS, but on the shorter term view, it’s the same lows over and over again. some will say it’s basing, but it’s not really finding a floor. TWT.

I continue to think that your green line is going to be indicative, but what is the PURPLE line or is it just the wedge you’ve drawn?
 
I gotta say, I don’t think this price action is positive.. so many failed tops it’s staring to look like the French or Swiss alps!

I know on the slightly longer term chart, we’re looking at higher LOWS, but on the shorter term view, it’s the same lows over and over again. some will say it’s basing, but it’s not really finding a floor. TWT.

I continue to think that your green line is going to be indicative, but what is the PURPLE line or is it just the wedge you’ve drawn?
I believe the upper purple line is the TWO year downward resistance. Crossing above that should be huge.
 
Seem we're still in the consolidation twilight period. Still making net positive move even at a snail pace. Per Wicked Charts and other if SP closed at 242.18 isnt that indication of more upside?

I think Macro is holding it back.

@DI003 - Please let us know if we are still in unknown territory based on closing of 242.18 today? Or today set a clearer path?
 
I need to stick to a rule that I only open 1/3 of possible short call options per day so I do not get trapped when we finally 🚀
This is the rule I follow too and it’s served me well. Side benefit: it keeps headroom to STO as SP rises if desired.

Also except for special purpose LEAPS and other positions, I try to stick to 5-10 days out max on covered calls, keeping the line close enough to not get out of hand. I found going further out doesn’t help overall even though more premium may be alluring.
 
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This is the rule I follow too and it’s served me well. Side benefit: it keeps headroom to STO as SP rises if desired.

Also except for special purpose LEAPS and other positions, I try to stick to 5-10 days out max on covered calls, keeping the line close enough to not get out of hand. I found going further out doesn’t help overall even though more premium may be alluring.
I tried to follow the rule of maxing each potential lost to 1-5% of my total equities. But sometimes greed blind me and I go crazy and fall on my dog ass.

Dog don't have nine lives like Cat so it's been catching up to me. Need to have strong self discipline to play this game.