So we're bearish again now?Sigh....June 2026 LEAPS finally open up trading but the stock is down so much from its relative high a month ago and volatility is dropped so much that the premium isn't not worth it to me to sell CC's.
The intent is clear to me, keep the stock below the 2+ year downtrend line with buffer to absorb any surprise positive news such as the CPI print incoming in anticipation of Q4 earnings in 2 weeks. The nonstop hit pieces and negative Tesla articles has noticeably increased in the past month.
Seems anything but a blowout earnings report will be treated negatively, and the stock will be punished. Even if TSLA meets expectations, I expect the stock to be sold off hard when they break the uptrend line from last Jan's low around earnings since it's now not that far from the current share price today. It'll be around 224-225/share by earnings date.
I just don't see Tesla having anything in terms of positive news to counter a pre-planned sell off except for Cybertruck production rate being higher than expected (doubtful) or Energy having a large jump in revenue recognition quarter to quarter while margins continue to improve (definitely possible). There's some talk that Tesla is trying to get V12 out before the earnings report but Wall St is simply going to ignore that. A FSD China release could definitely cause the surprise breakout but the rumors of that release being beginning of Jan have come and gone. Really just nothing to get excited about Tesla business-wise for the next 6 months at least.
The only silver lining is that a break of the uptrend low will probably turn a sell off into a major sell off down to possibly 150'ish area so would be good chance to close out my CC's, buy some more 2026 LEAPS and roll my current LEAPS. But I'd be taking on some risk in doing that and I prefer not to go down that road but it seems i should start to prep for that scenario playing out
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I don't and wasn't doubting, just asking for an explain, learning opportune
just they way you worded it implied you knew 235 wasn't strength.I don't and wasn't doubting, just asking for an explain, learning opportune
When did I flip to bullish lol?
I'm quite bullish on the state of things 6 months from now IF TSLA holds its uptrend line. But the question will be at what share price TSLA starts its breakout. TSLA has been trading weaker and weaker and the stock once again, was beaten down from the 2+ year downtrend line. We're like 2 and a half months from where the major downtrend line and the 1 year uptrend line meet but trading range between the uptrend and downtrend line is getting more and more narrow and we still haven't gotten the macro rug pull yet (I don't consider the macro sell off last week the rug pull).
So to me, the odds that TSLA breaks the wedge to the downside has increased materially in the past 2 weeks since the stock is only a 3% downside move from testing the uptrend line.
I'll likely wait to see what the CPI numbers are on Thursday but if those numbers just meet expectations, I expect macro's to not move at all or possibly sell off and TSLA will continue to show weakness into earnings. It's just my view but if TSLA breaks the wedge to the downside and support at the 1 year uptrend line is broken, it diminishes my expectations for a major TSLA rally for 2024 greatly. Resets the uptrend line and future support levels to be much lower than what they currently are projected for. We can't count on Tesla actually producing EPS numbers to force the stock higher for the next couple of quarters at least.
Seeing how I don't really see a major positive TSLA specific catalyst out there for the next 6 months (That Wall St will actually acknowledge and recognize), I'm currently putting a lot more emphasis on the CPI and economic prints. If the current Goldilocks scenario continues to play out without any major hiccups, I think it'll be enough to support TSLA from being hammered too hard and uptrend line being broken.
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Normally you’re right and best to wait for $242-255 to sell CCs again but for scalps (and small amounts of contracts) today $235+ was “strength”
What does getting assigned early really mean if you think about it?
Right now I'm on the hook for 100s @ 247.5 + $1.8 in time value
If I'm assigned early I'm still on the hook for 100s @ 247.5 but those time value I'll pocket
Getting assigned early is only a substantial risk if capital tax (low cost basis shares getting called away) is a factor.
I have 2/16 -c275 that I may split up, considered rolling some out, in, or just let stew the coming week. They have $3 left from a rolled credit 12/23 of $9.50. Although a $14.25 credit (roll) looks juicy, the burn off would be faster with less DOWNWARD SP travel on the 2/16 than the 1/2025 -c350 or -c400 ... that's what I was trying to figure out.Normally you’re right and best to wait for $242-255 to sell CCs again but for scalps (and small amounts of contracts) today $235+ was “strength”
Thanks for the explain.
EDIT: The initial credit covered a loss of about the same size a few weeks before, hence not wanting to let go of that last $3, unless the shares will be at risk short term. Also something that I can deal with if we do get back to 265 ish and closer to expiration.
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dc_h
Active Member
Not anymore.
I still sell naked calls everyday. The key is to do it super duper FOTM. FOTM is not enough.
What the hell is this price action today? Have been out playing music and it has been capped like crazy around $234, what gives with that? I did expect a bounce with the rest, but no...
Is this margin-anxiety we're seeing now that's going to continue into earnings?
I had a sell order for the -c270's I BTC's earlier, but got nowhere near, don't really want to stay out of those as it's quite a wedge of cash to be missing - and If this continues I'll be looking to buy some shares sooner rather than later - I'm not convinced we'll get a DCB, macro was super-strong yesterday and TSLA came very late to the party, lots of effort to keep it down right now IMO, which is being helped with the lower than usual volume
Now the capping med up to $235, some kind of progress, I guess...
Is this margin-anxiety we're seeing now that's going to continue into earnings?
I had a sell order for the -c270's I BTC's earlier, but got nowhere near, don't really want to stay out of those as it's quite a wedge of cash to be missing - and If this continues I'll be looking to buy some shares sooner rather than later - I'm not convinced we'll get a DCB, macro was super-strong yesterday and TSLA came very late to the party, lots of effort to keep it down right now IMO, which is being helped with the lower than usual volume
Now the capping med up to $235, some kind of progress, I guess...
Seems clear to me that intent is to keep TSLA in the wedge until earnings and as far as away from the 2 year downtrend line as possible.
Between all the hit piece articles, seems like Wall St is foaming in at mouth to get TSLA shares on the cheap if the 1 year uptrend line is broken from so-so earnings.
Well it certainly doesn't look like "organic price action", for sure... glad I rolled my September short puts down to 270 from 300, would not surprise me at all if it's still in the mid 200's by then
I am super bearish right now. I am worried about ER a lot and I am planning on getting very protective. Maybe my work situation is making bearish but I have been selling my long position in the recent months and I am now about half in cash. I could buy back in today and make a decent profit but I just can't. Like Star I will get bullish when the interest rates drop a good amount and when Tesla starts to raise prices. It seems that the Model 3 highland will get released in the USA in the upcoming weeks maybe that will create some up pressure.
Why not buy some far out LEAPS that are close to ITM so that you have upside protection if there is a earnings surprise catalyst.
If there is a earnings surprise catalyst or a CPI/Fed positive catalyst, the stock will likely move up faster than you can get trades in ( gap up in a big way overnight).
If the earnings are meh, you can then buy outright stock at a much lower price or more LEAPS at a much much lower price. As bearish as I am on the way TSLA is trading right now, I still think 2025 is a year where a lot of positive catalyst are aligning.
chiller
Member
So many bearish people here that I am starting to think that we'll go up after earnings.
Earnings will likely start being positive catalyst once we get an earnings that show margins have bottomed.
I think Tesla doesn't get enough credit for their COGS reduction. Given what's been going on with commodity prices especially for EV's, we're 1-2 quarters away from margins bottoming...and I don't put it out of the question that margins actually bottomed in Q4 (but those end of quarter discounts were quite a lot so who knows
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Cleared out all CCs for this week because keeping them open 3 more days for that last $1 has burned me in the past. Today feels like one of those boring days that lulls me to sleep and makes me roll in my calls to eke out a little extra premium, only to get run over shortly after by a big rally out of nowhere.
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