Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[DarkKnight83]

alrighty, daytrade shutdown time and i am off to the movies games

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What does Buy Write Covered Call mean?

Did you buy TSLA shares and sold CCs on it?

 

[Yoona]

What does Buy Write Covered Call mean?

Did you buy TSLA shares and sold CCs on it?

Anatomy of a Covered Call - Fidelity

Investors should calculate the static and if-called rates of return before using a covered call.

www.fidelity.com

 

[thenewguy1979]

To my untrained eye this looks like the options market is setting up for and earnings + forecast miss and subsequent dump.

The dilemma is how to play it in case they are wrong about the dump.

Maybe stay away from earning week and play when it's safe on known direction?

 

[Jim Holder]

Maybe stay away from earning week and play when it's safe on known direction?

 

[Discoducky]

I wrote 10x $250 CCs this morning 1/26 for $1.24.

Time will tell!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Maybe stay away from earning week and play when it's safe on known direction?

There's also a decent chance that they orchestrate a dump of the stock after earnings even if earnings are really good. Those types of moves have happened in the past and usually, are a great time to flip from bearish to bullish. Obviously, the key being earnings are actually really good.

 

[Jim Holder]

There's also a decent chance that they orchestrate a dump of the stock after earnings even if earnings are really good. Those types of moves have happened in the past and usually, are a great time to flip from bearish to bullish. Obviously, the key being earnings are actually really good.

I wonder if the dump we had to $212 today so close to ER (5 days…) will suffice.

@dl003 has your recent EW count showing we might be done with down (Wave C) @ $232 and may start a skyrocketing new leg up been invalidated with the added dump from $232 to $212 or only strengthens it?

 

[Yoona]

TSLA Rolling - does it work? Part 2

i spent 3 weeks figuring out a new logic, finally i got it, and just in time for EM's st*pid tweet

my most complex algorithm ever, google sheets literally grinds to a halt when i run the backtesting

if my 7DTE short put is breached, (for ex 2022-12-23 i have a 10% OTM bet -p135.20 but it closed at 123.15):

• if i roll with no strike improvement (assuming no early assignment), i can close it in 4 weeks when High=136.68; this means rolling to the same strike 4 times
• if i roll with 5-strike improvement every week, it will go OTM in 3 weeks (week 1 -p130.20, week 2 -p125.20, week 3 -p120.20 expires with Close=122.40); this means rolling 3 times and going down total 15
• if i roll with 10-strike improvement every week, it will go OTM in 2 weeks (week 1 -p125.20, week 2 -p115.20 High =118.80); this means rolling 2 times and going down total 20

takeaway: be patient, since 2021 100% of all ITM puts went OTM if there was a 5- or 10- strike improvement every week

of course, the cost of rolling is up to you; if this was an IC with 40 width, chances are the strike improvements ALSO come with net credits

if one is doing 10% OTM, any breached put will take at most 5 rolls before it goes OTM (5-strike improvement every week)

if one is doing 12% OTM, any breached put will take at most 3 rolls before it goes OTM (5-strike improvement every week); max 6 rolls using the same strike and then it's OTM

my IC is the best, at most ONE roll with strike improvement fixes the problem (since 2021)

NOT ADVICE, past performance doesn't mean it will happen again

next up: CALLS

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enlarged snapshot for the senior citizens:
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TSLA Rolling - does it work? Part 3

Compared to puts, calls take longer to OTM if rolled

if my 7DTE short call is breached, (for ex 2023-06-09 i have a 10% OTM bet -c235.36 but it closed at 244.39):

• if i roll with no strike improvement (assuming no early assignment), i can close it in 10 weeks; this means rolling to the same strike 10 times
• if i roll with 5-strike improvement every week, it will go OTM in 3 weeks (week 1 -c240.36, week 2 -c245.36, week 3 -c250.36); this means rolling 3 times and going up total 15
• if i roll with 10-strike improvement every week, it will go OTM in 1 week (week 1 -p245.36); this means rolling 1 time and going up total 10

if one is selling 10% or 12% OTM calls, any breached call will take at most 6 rolls before it goes OTM (5-strike improvement every week, total $30 improvement) ie move -c200 into -c205 into -c210 into -c215 into -c220 into -c225 into -c230

if one is selling 15% OTM calls, any breached call will take at most 2 rolls before it goes OTM (10-strike improvement every week, total $20 improvement) ie move -c200 into -c210 into -c220

if one is selling 8% OTM calls, there is a 15.82% chance that it will go ITM.

summary:

• rolled puts go OTM faster than rolled calls, especially if there is a 5- or 10- strike improvement every week
• assuming no early assignment, there is no "max loss" when rolling puts - 100% will eventually go OTM (since 2021)
• assuming no early assignment, "max loss" is possible when rolling calls
• "max loss" means you can roll up to today or for a long time, and it will still be ITM (might as well take the loss)
• translation: i should be more afraid of rolling calls than puts

 

[mickificki]

https://x.com/tslachan/status/1747445746146955658?s=46&t=r5EjEf7GJHzI0KPrO4mkww

More price cuts.

 

[Max Plaid]

$224.9-$228.92 is sellable resistance. A close above $228.92 turns TSLA bullish to $241.82 in 3-5 days and retest of $256.06 in the following 2-3 weeks.

Staying below $224.82 keeps $194.07 in reach in 2-3 weeks and $178.35 by end of February.

If we lose $212.8 tomorrow then can expect $202.80 where we can round back up for a bounce before heading back down.

Worth a watch (8 minutes):

With all due respect yesterday you posted:

"If we break $217, $206.69 would be next and $178 will be in play by the end of February. There is also a $194-196 level there that we might bounce from. if we finish above $225 tomorrow we are going up and I would invalidate the sale signal. Good luck everyone"​

And I do believe 217 was well and truly broken, but didn't go to 206...

I've been following these since you started posting them and tbh although the resistance-levels tend to be relatively accurate, the price-predictions are mostly not

I think it's good, like all other TA, to take on-board what's said, but I'd be careful relying on it

Waking up to fairly deep-red Futures this morning...

 

[Max Plaid]

Maybe stay away from earning week and play when it's safe on known direction?

$TSLA and "known direction", uhm

 

[Max Plaid]

I wrote 10x $250 CCs this morning 1/26 for $1.24.

Time will tell!

Sorry, this is Tesla Street Bets thread, degenerates only, no sensible, "safe" positions please -> yolo the farm every day!

Not an advice...

 

[jeewee3000]

With all due respect yesterday you posted:

"If we break $217, $206.69 would be next and $178 will be in play by the end of February. There is also a $194-196 level there that we might bounce from. if we finish above $225 tomorrow we are going up and I would invalidate the sale signal. Good luck everyone"​

And I do believe 217 was well and truly broken, but didn't go to 206...

I've been following these since you started posting them and tbh although the resistance-levels tend to be relatively accurate, the price-predictions are mostly not

I think it's good, like all other TA, to take on-board what's said, but I'd be careful relying on it

Waking up to fairly deep-red Futures this morning...

I noticed the same thing regarding this data. I use Jim's data more as a read on "what price points have a higher chance of acting as support or resistance", for intraday plays, and often the stock indeed reverses (intraday) at these levels. Once broken through these levels however, the follow through is rarely in line with the prediction.

But I don't look a gift horse in the mouth, so I appreciate Jim's efforts providing this data and I use it with the huge grain of salt I use on any data.

 

[Max Plaid]

I noticed the same thing regarding this data. I use Jim's data more as a read on "what price points have a higher chance of acting as support or resistance", for intraday plays, and often the stock indeed reverses (intraday) at these levels. Once broken through these levels however, the follow through is rarely in line with the prediction.

But I don't look a gift horse in the mouth, so I appreciate Jim's efforts providing this data and I use it with the huge grain of salt I use on any data.

100%, super grateful that Jim summarises this for us, and also for DL and now Yoona's inputs

In terms of TA, I still find Cory from The Stocks Channel the most meaningful for me as he's mostly looking at trends rather than specific points, although he also points out the main resistance and support areas

 

[Jim Holder]

With all due respect yesterday you posted:

"If we break $217, $206.69 would be next and $178 will be in play by the end of February. There is also a $194-196 level there that we might bounce from. if we finish above $225 tomorrow we are going up and I would invalidate the sale signal. Good luck everyone"​

And I do believe 217 was well and truly broken, but didn't go to 206...

I've been following these since you started posting them and tbh although the resistance-levels tend to be relatively accurate, the price-predictions are mostly not

I think it's good, like all other TA, to take on-board what's said, but I'd be careful relying on it

Waking up to fairly deep-red Futures this morning...

You’re right. The effective word is “can” see $xx.xx price not “will.” No one knows for sure obviously. But if you track his channel top and bottom predictions for the last several months he nailed it each time, such as selling into $265 this round. I use the info as a general guide along with other clues to help plan and manage trades and I find it helpful.

 

[Jim Holder]

I use Jim's data more as a read on "what price points have a higher chance of acting as support or resistance."

Exactly. Well said. That’s the intention I have when I share.

I appreciate Jim's efforts providing this data and I use it with the huge grain of salt I use on any data.

 

[Jim Holder]

Great tweet that expresses sentiment so well (the reply below Gary’s tweet):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747562798383538309

 

[juanmedina]

With all due respect yesterday you posted:

"If we break $217, $206.69 would be next and $178 will be in play by the end of February. There is also a $194-196 level there that we might bounce from. if we finish above $225 tomorrow we are going up and I would invalidate the sale signal. Good luck everyone"​

And I do believe 217 was well and truly broken, but didn't go to 206...

I've been following these since you started posting them and tbh although the resistance-levels tend to be relatively accurate, the price-predictions are mostly not

I think it's good, like all other TA, to take on-board what's said, but I'd be careful relying on it

Waking up to fairly deep-red Futures this morning...

To be fair that was my post and I think I even said in another post "let see if Wicked Stocks is right". TA is not everything and even high probability trades fail like it did last week. Everything goes out of the water until Elon or Tesla throws curb balls like all these price cuts. They are still tools that can help us make more educated trades.

Man I really wish I had bought puts at $257 like you suggested. Tesla seems week and I am usually wrong but I don't see how ER can turn the tide. If we get ER fomo I am going to buy some put spreads and puts.

Yesterday I sold $202.5 puts for $1.25-1 and closed them at $0.45 I also bought a jan 26 $220 Leap and sold it for a $6 profit.

Macro might not help us as well:

 

[Max Plaid]

To be fair that was my post and I think I even said in another post "let see if Wicked Stocks is right". TA is not everything and even high probability trades fail like it did last week. Everything goes out of the water until Elon or Tesla throws curb balls like all these price cuts. They are still tools that can help us make more educated trades.

Man I really wish I had bought puts at $257 like you suggested. Tesla seems week and I am usually wrong but I don't see how ER can turn the tide. If we get ER fomo I am going to buy some put spreads and puts.

Yesterday I sold $202.5 puts for $1.25-1 and closed them at $0.45 I also bought a jan 26 $220 Leap and sold it for a $6 profit.

Macro might not help us as well:

Yeah, I wish I'd bought (more) puts like I suggested too! At least I still have the ones from October, and I've sold against non-stop since then, are increasing in value now, if it goes sub-200 then I start to make profit on those, but then when to sell them, that's a tough one... take the initial premium back - that's already big win overall, or wait until it dumps lower... but what if t doesn't...

Buying is easy, selling is hard - or more correctly for us here, opening is easy, closing is hard

BTW: the video you posted is "unavailable"

 

[Yoona]

210 is in play