Based on the slide deck, remarks on the call about growth, remarks on the call about nearing the limits of COGs reductions on existing models, the RWD and LR AWD 3 not qualifying for any IRA credit, and cuts to EV credits in a bunch of EU countries, I think even 2.2 is overly optimistic for deliveries- certainly production could be that high though.
Agree on the tax question.
But the call also told us:
No Dojo as a service in any meaningful timeframe, if ever (and maybe not even meaningful internal use)
No Bot for sale this year and only, maybe, uber-elon-optimistically, any at all in 2025 (and still trying to get it to do useful things)
No next-gen car production until late (Elon used end once or twice too) of 2025
No substantive discussion at all with OEMs licensing FSD (Elon mentioning they still don't believe it's real)
Also nothing on call about the dying solar business or the hasn't-expanded-in-quite-a-while insurance business.
All of which are not conducive to much of a narrative of growth for the next -2- years in a stock that's still got a very high PE.
Energy looked good, and Elon talked it up, but even if it doubled in 2024 it'd still represent like what 15% or less of total revenue? But that was probably the nearest to a bright spot over at least the next year, if not two.... well, that and of course, we got Elon telling us, as he has annually since what 2017, THIS is the year we see ACTUAL self driving
I'd originally thought I might look at max-time LEAP buying after the IV crash and call SP drop, but honestly so much of that call was "not much going on till 2026" I'm not sure if it makes much sense yet.