Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

I thought Elon recognition of achievements, meeting guidance for 2023 and decent forward looking was fair to good. The tone is positive, no?

The tone is muted, conservative and hedging..IMHO.. which it should be at this point. With just a tad of snarkyness. I think we have CAUTIOUS Elon, maybe he wants the stock lower, so handing over another 7-9% from the company won’t be too much of a stretch, who in the world knows.

What I AM happy about is that I’m pretty sure that as a 2018 M3 LR RWD owner with FULL FSD, LVL4 autonomy, I’m going to be able to either get A) a full transfer at some point to new vehicle - which I’m fine with or B) ~ 7500 in credit towards a future purchase.

 

[thenewguy1979]

I thought Elon recognition of achievements, meeting guidance for 2023 and decent forward looking was fair to good. The tone is positive, no?

hitting sub 200 now.......

 

[Jim Holder]

Great comment re 4680 ramp!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Great comment re 4680 ramp!

I'm a big fan of Drew.....wish he actually would be moved into the COO role

 

[Knightshade]

4680 remarks good... next-gen vehicle dates....not so good...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Comment on next-gen vehicle production timeline kinda disappointing

 

[Max Plaid]

Comment on next-gen vehicle production timeline kinda disappointing

Matches what we heard yesterday from the Reuters, no?

Honestly I’m finding this call extremely bullish, but then I’m able to see further than the end of next week

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Comment on next-gen vehicle production timeline kinda disappointing

That could be two long flat years for the stock. Just HODL’ing isn’t much fun then. Luckily we in this thread can kill the time selling options (and hopefully make some money).

 

[tivoboy]

Matches what we heard yesterday from the Reuters, no?

Honestly I’m finding this call extremely bullish, but then I’m able to see further than the end of next week

Well, the “news” was “in” 2025, and now EM is saying LATE/END of 2025.. which in EM time could mean 2026… regardless, doesn’t really matter, nobody is going to bet the farm on a 25K next gen car being delivered in LATE 2025, or 2026 and not at MEXICO COGS prices…personally, I’m not factoring this for short/near term pricing. I doubt any analyst other than the most bullish is going to try and model margin and revenue contribution for ~ Q4’25 into any DCF

 

[vikings123]

That could be two long flat years for the stock. Just HODL’ing isn’t much fun then. Luckily we in this thread can kill the time selling options (and hopefully make some money).

Would be nice if Elon has actually tries to show some positivity. The stock is dead for 2024. In some ways it's good to get this period behind us and set low expectations. I hope we get another chance to load up on LEAPS but I also know that means our income from selling options could be impacted due to low premiums.

 

[Jim Holder]

SP holding up so far ($198.60), last Q it was down $25+ by now into Elon's comments...

 

[Max Plaid]

Well, the “news” was “in” 2025, and EM is saying LATE/END of 2025.. which is EM time could mean 2026… regardless, doesn’t really matter, nobody is going to bet the farm on a 25K next gen car being delivered in LATE 2025, or 2026 and not at MEXICO prices…personally, I’m not factoring this for short/near term pricing. I doubt any analyst other than the most bullish is going to try and model margin and revenue contribution for ~ Q4’25 into any DCF

He said “second half” - and I think he’s being far more cautious with his predictions than in the past

 

[uscbucsfan]

He said “second half” - and I think he’s being far more cautious with his predictions than in the past

He said the end as well and that was his most optimistic timeline "sleeping on the factory floor" timeline.

 

[Jim Holder]

Good banter...positive vibes for a change. I'm liking it.

 

[DaBooster]

Matches what we heard yesterday from the Reuters, no?

Honestly I’m finding this call extremely bullish, but then I’m able to see further than the end of next week

Bullish maybe. extremely not so much

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla finally gonna start reporting Energy deployment on the P/D report.

I'd love for this to be a sign that they're very confident in the ramp of deployment throughout 2024 but hard to get excited about anything nowadays when it comes to 2024 lol

 

[tivoboy]

and I think he’s being far more cautious with his predictions than in the past

The tone is muted, conservative and hedging..IMHO.. which it should be at this point. With just a tad of snarkyness. I think we have CAUTIOUS Elon, maybe he wants the stock lower, so handing over another 7-9% from the company won’t be too much of a stretch, who in the world knows.

What I AM happy about is that I’m pretty sure that as a 2018 M3 LR RWD owner with FULL FSD, LVL4 autonomy, I’m going to be able to either get A) a full transfer at some point to new vehicle - which I’m fine with or B) ~ 7500 in credit towards a future purchase.

Concur

 

[Max Plaid]

SP holding up so far ($198.60), last Q it was down $25+ by now into Elon's comments...

The right Elon turned up today

And they didn’t avoid the retail questions, even though they were quite direct and tricky

Honestly loving this call

 

[intelligator]

I've not sat on earning calls for other car or tech companies but will make it a point to satisfy my own curiosity. My expectation is that they aren't so rich in innovation on the product and cost management sides of the house. Everything they state as being hard, indeed is. It would be sensible for WS to begin valuing this company and like companies on their direction, not so much the quarter to quarter targets. Okay, done

Back to the topic of this thread ... I risked keeping 1/4 of my -p210/+p170 for Friday, so I'll have some work to do. Maybe a flip roll is in order? Those that I rolled out, I have some time but should also accept the SP will feel pressure.

 

[juanmedina]

I’ll start to add to long positions under $194 10-15% of overall position size target (I think max risk for 2024 is ~ $155), but will sell up to 70-80 -p CSP if premiums rise down to $175, targeting between $185-190 plus ~ 7-9$ in premium for next week or Feb/Mar. but, it’ll all really depend on earnings and call.

ADD: Interesting how low the volume today has been..I’ll have to see what prior DAY OF trading volumes were like.
roughly 4M closing cross though..

The call sounded good to me. So far down only down 5%. A March 1st $185p should be worth close to $7 tomorrow if we open where we are. Is that the expiration you have in mind?