Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

That’s exactly what I was thinking I’m confused
I own about 2500 shares purchased in 2016 and 2017. Should’ve taken my profits when it was all-time high in 2021.
However, sometimes the stock makes no sense. They beat Wall Street projections for Q4 deliveries and the stock dropped and with with the news today dropped again. Might be time to just take my profits and move on into something else I don’t see any positive movement for 2024. Might roll it in AMZN

I don't think we are alone. It's going to get ugly. That's what my gut is telling me right now. That's when mistakes are made. Good chance my net worth is lower next time we are at $412, than last time we were at $412.

 

[juanmedina]

I don't think we are alone. It's going to get ugly. That's what my gut is telling me right now. That's when mistakes are made. Good chance my net worth is lower next time we are at $412.

How ugly is ugly? I have a few 2026 Leaps that are down 25% and I just got them and I am wonder take the lost now or wait because it seems that nothing is going to happen at least for 2024. ER was good in the sense that gross margins increased this quarter.

 

[The Accountant]

The call kinda went into the weeds a bit towards the end, more evading 2024 guidance dumped the stock

Obvious that 2024 will be around 2.2million, the exit rate from Q4 of 500k + 100k extra from Texas and Berlin, let’s say 25% growth

I also think the question about Tesla aligning to S&P tax rates was not answered well, I certainly didn’t understand it - I think the bottom line is no actual impact, it’s just accounting, but this wasn’t very clear

The tax items is a negative going forward for EPS. I was waiting for this day.
Difficult topic to explain but I will try.
Tesla would book a low tax rate in the past because they would take losses from prior years and offset them against the income of the current quarter.
So the tax rate instead of 20%-25% would only be 10% or so.
For example, if they has $2m in profits, they would deduct $1.5m losses from prior years and only record tax expense on 0.5m.
Now that they took the entire benefit in Q4, they have to book tax expense on the $2m not the $0.5m (there are no more tax losses - they used them all up).
Income tax expense could be double going forward - reducing EPS. This does not impact cash.
Hope this helps.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

How ugly is ugly?

$133 or lower. And then it keeps going down and down and it turns out Gordon johnson was right.

 

[EVNow]

Income tax expense could be double going forward - reducing EPS. This does not impact cash.
Hope this helps.

So, why do it now, all at once ?

 

[Jim Holder]

So, why do it now, all at once ?

To help boost Q4 numbers?

 

[2Pearls]

So at least there is some hope

If only hope were a strategy!

And it looks like technicals are out the window!

 

[thenewguy1979]

And here I am holding -212.5p since last week.
Will BTC them out tomorrow.

Luckily that was only parts of the strangle. The Puts side +182p should be alright going into next week.

Can’t win them all

 

[vikings123]

How ugly is ugly? I have a few 2026 Leaps that are down 25% and I just got them and I am wonder take the lost now or wait because it seems that nothing is going to happen at least for 2024. ER was good in the sense that gross margins increased this quarter.

IMO 194 will be a key level. If that breaks and doesn’t hold on the hourly or daily chart I think it might be prudent to reset. Not advice.

 

[The Accountant]

So, why do it now, all at once ?

You are required to record it all at once. There is one exception, if there is a possibility that a company will not generate enough profit in the future to absorb past losses. So Tesla held off on recording the benefit all at once because consistent tax gains where not likely until now. Why now, I am not sure.

 

[Singuy]

To help boost Q4 numbers?

Based on seasonality, Q4 numbers would be the better out of the Q4 vs Q1. So one would rather boost Q1 numbers if anything. However this tax deferments accounting thing doesn't do anything to boost anything. Everyone backs it out and pretends it didn't happen.

 

[Max Plaid]

Based on the slide deck, remarks on the call about growth, remarks on the call about nearing the limits of COGs reductions on existing models, the RWD and LR AWD 3 not qualifying for any IRA credit, and cuts to EV credits in a bunch of EU countries, I think even 2.2 is overly optimistic for deliveries- certainly production could be that high though.


Agree on the tax question.

But the call also told us:

No Dojo as a service in any meaningful timeframe, if ever (and maybe not even meaningful internal use)
No Bot for sale this year and only, maybe, uber-elon-optimistically, any at all in 2025 (and still trying to get it to do useful things)
No next-gen car production until late (Elon used end once or twice too) of 2025
No substantive discussion at all with OEMs licensing FSD (Elon mentioning they still don't believe it's real)

Also nothing on call about the dying solar business or the hasn't-expanded-in-quite-a-while insurance business.

All of which are not conducive to much of a narrative of growth for the next -2- years in a stock that's still got a very high PE.

Energy looked good, and Elon talked it up, but even if it doubled in 2024 it'd still represent like what 15% or less of total revenue? But that was probably the nearest to a bright spot over at least the next year, if not two.... well, that and of course, we got Elon telling us, as he has annually since what 2017, THIS is the year we see ACTUAL self driving

I'd originally thought I might look at max-time LEAP buying after the IV crash and call SP drop, but honestly so much of that call was "not much going on till 2026" I'm not sure if it makes much sense yet.

You summarise it well, although some of the points you think as negatives are relatively neutral or positive for me- no bot or next-gen until 2025 wasn't a surprise, rather good to get some confirmation that they might come sooner that I expected (I still maintain he said 2nd half 2025 for gen2, so we'll see)

Dojo was the most disappointing aspect for me, this was the next big thing a year back, now it's a moon-shot, a bit of a volte-face

The positives is that Elon appeared committed and relatively focused, at least at the beginning. CFO Vaihab wasn't very comforting though, too vague in all his answers. Drew and the other guy, don't know who that was, were great, but it did descend into a "bro" podcast feel towards the end, which wasn't great

For my side, obviously regret stepping out of the Sep -c270's yesterday, however that does give me a lot of lassitude for aggressive ATM calls. Still have 100x -p205's for this week, plan is to roll them to -p200 next and straddle with a few calls - I have 300x +c's & shares to write against for the moment, so going 60x -c200 I don't feel too risky for the moment

But let's see, plans are all well and good, but will depend on the SP ultimately...

 

[tivoboy]

Ok ppl, breaks over. Let’s get out there and make some money!.

volatility brings opportunity. There’s really nobody HERE who didn’t see this coming. Some were more prepared than others. If you’re holden’ and didn’t fold’em there’s gonna be nice -CC rev to be made in the short/near term.

My first move today will be to sell the $200 +p 2/23/24 bought when we were at $254. There’s probably more $$ there to be made but I’m raising more cash.

If you had dry powder, your ship has come in. There’s a sale for the foreseeable future and if you’re not JUST HODL, and willing to work for it this is the greatest trading money maker I’ve seen in many years if not decades.

Daddy’s got a bag full of cash and a full tank of gas. So let’s get out there and turn water into WINE! Ich habe Dampf drauf!

 

[Jim Holder]

Ok ppl, breaks over. Let’s get out there and make some money!.

volatility brings opportunity. There’s really nobody HERE who didn’t see this coming. Some were more prepared than others. If you’re holden’ and didn’t fold’em there’s gonna be nice -CC rev to be made in the short/near term.

My first move today will be to sell the $200 +p 2/23/24 bought when we were at $254. There’s probably more $$ there to be made but I’m raising more cash.

If you had dry powder, your ship has come in. There’s a sale for the foreseeable future and if you’re not JUST HODL, and willing to work for it this is the greatest trading money maker I’ve seen in many years if not decades.

Daddy’s got a bag full of cash and a full tank of gas. So let’s get out there and turn water into WINE! Ich habe Dampf drauf!

100%!! Opportunity knocks.

Fortunately I have a bunch of September 2025 and January 2025 -C275 and -C300’s I can let appreciate. The only thing I’m worried about is 16x -P290 9/2024 that’s going to be deeper red and little intrinsic left, not sure best way to deal with it. Rest are LEAP calls I’ll try to unwind on any DCB’s.

Still holding my commons . Waiting to see how today plays out.

What are some plays you’re lining up?

 

[Max Plaid]

Ok ppl, breaks over. Let’s get out there and make some money!.

volatility brings opportunity. There’s really nobody HERE who didn’t see this coming. Some were more prepared than others. If you’re holden’ and didn’t fold’em there’s gonna be nice -CC rev to be made in the short/near term.

My first move today will be to sell the $200 +p 2/23/24 bought when we were at $254. There’s probably more $$ there to be made but I’m raising more cash.

If you had dry powder, your ship has come in. There’s a sale for the foreseeable future and if you’re not JUST HODL, and willing to work for it this is the greatest trading money maker I’ve seen in many years if not decades.

Daddy’s got a bag full of cash and a full tank of gas. So let’s get out there and turn water into WINE! Ich habe Dampf drauf!

Looking like 190 - 195 will be the range, so I'm currently sticking with the plan to roll the -p205's to -p200, then weekly roll for premium and/or move down to get profits on the underlying March +p200's -> risk there is that rolling down the -p's, the stock pops and the +p's lose money fast, better perhaps to stick to the -c200 weekly roll for premiums, tough one!

strongly considering 60x -c190's to cover more downside -> escape plan there is the roll back to September, plus I have 300x contracts I can write right now in case I need to add volume

20x -p240 just going to roll weekly for the moment, plan B is to roll them to September and reduce to 6x, 7x contracts...

And on that subject, everyone check your short LEAP puts if you have any, make sure the extrinsic isn't washed out

 

[Jim Holder]

And on that subject, everyone check your short LEAP puts if you have any, make sure the extrinsic isn't washed out

I have 16x -P290 September 2024, showing -$13.34 for extrinsic and another 10x -P300 January 2025 showing -$11.27 extrinsic
Didn’t know negative extrinsic was possible.

What would you do with these in such a case?

Weird to see the chain showing negative extrinsic too:

 

[thenewguy1979]

Seem we broken through 194 and trying for 190. If that goes then 176.

Wicked Stock mentioned potential bounce after 176.

Thing are getting a bit quick on the downside…

 

[Max Plaid]

I have 16x -P290 September 2024, showing -$13.34 for extrinsic and another 10x -P300 January 2025 showing -$11.27 extrinsic
Didn’t know negative extrinsic was possible.

What would you do with these in such a case?


View attachment 1012049

Weird to see the chain showing negative extrinsic too:

View attachment 1012050

Maybe that's a pre-market thingy where the SP is updated, but not yet the option price?

 

[Jim Holder]

Probability analysis for 1/26:

 

[Jim Holder]

Maybe that's a pre-market thingy where the SP is updated, but not yet the option price?

Yeh, I spoke with the broker and they said the system is on the fritz due to market being closed after such a large drop in SP and should resolve itself at market open and show more accurate data.

Let's say extrinsic resolves to $0.00 at market open, how would you manage the position given the others I have on? I have about $100k liquid from that transaction and others at my disposal if necessary.

Thank you in advance.