Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Arul]

I guess that’s what happen when you want to sell shares by selling ATM CCs

The stock plummets 5% and you are stucked with those shares

I sold OTM CC still I got assigned 500 shares. i deecided no more options till some clarity arrives.

 

[Jim Holder]

$175 (iii) might be it hopefully:

 

[elasalle]

closed CCs at 200 for next week ... opend 192 CCs for this Fri against the same ...

 

[Max Plaid]

Tesla BEV market share in Germany doubled from Dec to January. Tesla sales best January ever.

But all EV stocks are down because, as I have learned from the "media," they don't work in the cold and nobody wants them....

Yup, EV stocks totally out of fashion as of late

 

[Jim Holder]

I’m not deploying any serious $$ till $16x, there is a lot of buyer interest from VWAP, history and currently now in the $160-165 range. I still think we’re going to get into $15x in the next six weeks now (when I previously posted that target it was for Q1’24, now we’re 1/3 through Q1). The $148 TA level is a target, but in my opinion not a destination. Once we get clearly into ~ $165 there will be a LOT of buyers of all stripes and sizes, and I think that will provide stability for time and facts to turn positive.

We HAD a wall built at $180 by market participants, but now that’s pretty much gone and I think the same gang is trying to build ANOTHER wall ~ $160.

I know that’s not what anyone wants to hear, but well there it is.

I was short the 12x 2/24 $205 covered calls @ ~ $5.5, but have bought them back for 95% win at this point, that’s enough for now.

Thanks. Do you see any relief first between now and 165?

 

[juanmedina]

I am gambling here. I sold $180p jan 2025 at $30.4 for a 16.5% return if they expire OTM and I bought a Jan 2026 $200 Leap. We shall see if there is a bounce here like Wicked Stocks is expecting. I still have lots of cash.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Now y'all watch closely, because this can already be the sharp V @dl003 (wherever he may be ) always talks about "when hitting the bottom". I would like to see his view based on EW models. Maybe @adiggs can make a comprehensive EW-analysis , having finished the book on that.
For me, low 140 or even 130's would be the end of it, but I have been wrong on that before, leaving me with ample shares up until ...uhhh ... levels we visit today......
But 173 can be it as well, so at that level I probably will close some of the -C195 that are further away. I have sketched my "favorite" trajectory (making an end to all of speciulation and opening a reasonable upward road) below, so finally hitting the red-dotted line below all-time-bottoms.
[2x edited} I WANT TO ADD THAT ON 23/01/25 WE WERE AT THE SAME IDIOTIC OVERSOLDNESS AS 22/12/28 (before $102 LOW@23/01/08) [/edit]

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I am gambling here. I sold $180p jan 2025 at $30.4 for a 16.5% return if they expire OTM and I bought a Jan 2026 $200 Leap. We shall see if there is a bounce here like Wicked Stocks is expecting. I still have lots of cash.

I’m probably going to do some of this strategy though I’m content to wait another 2-3 weeks to see if we dip further. Will also sell the Put for more like 150 or 160

 

[Max Plaid]

OK, gang, to stop the rot, I bought back all my -c185's & -c190's and sold -c175's @$6.7 for next week - plan is to roll all my -p190 & -p185's to the same strike for around break even - I have burner +c's in case of reversal

 

[SpeedyEddy]

$175 (iii) might be it hopefully:

I agree, could... (because of the screaming remark above (repeated below), that would indicate in Time as well as in oversoldness, today is just about "that day" in 2023

I WANT TO ADD THAT ON 23/01/25 WE WERE AT THE SAME IDIOTIC OVERSOLDNESS AS 22/12/28 (before $102 LOW@23/01/08)

 

[tivoboy]

Thanks. Do you see any relief first between now and 165?

Speed bumps mostly, there aren’t a lot of TA data points between the levels I have posted. So big round numbers or GEX thresholds of mostly PUT position could be a guide.

I more expect company announcements or tweets to try and affect buyer interest and ignite some possible FOMO. We could hear some V12 info. There WAS going to be some EM X presentation - that seems to have been forgotten or allowed to be forgotten - could return. I doubt that there are going to be any interesting REAL numbers in the short term, so we’re in a no mans land of increasing market calls for a drop, then pop, etc. I call it more pulling back hard till there is marked buyer interest of large volume buyers.

The 50 falling below the 200 was something I was predicting and waiting on since early Jan and as I noted last week, I expect it to crescendo downward which for TA programmatic traders might as well be Valhalla.

 

[OrthoSurg]

$175 (iii) might be it hopefully:

View attachment 1015561

Closed my CCs at 175.50

Going try to reopen them at the end of the day

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Other indicator of the possibility of today already being "it" is hitting the thin blue line under the more recent bottoms.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

BTW just closed all 195 calls (except for this Friday) with enough profit, you can imagine.

 

[intelligator]

15 minute candle was showing some promise. If we can get back to today's open, my plan is to close 3/1 and 3/15 DITM -p200 and -p205 BPS's ... at a loss for the position, shutdown with gains from another; no sense in trying to continue the bleed.

 

[adiggs]

I wonder how long my 02/23 220 -P will hold.
Could be assigned anytime now I guess?

Keep an eye on the time value. As that approaches zero, your likelihood of assignment increases a lot. It is linear that probability.

I've got some 210 puts that I'm rolling along. When they are that deep in the money my pattern tends to be rolling a full week prior to expiration AND to roll out a month - typically to that month's monthly expiration rather than one of the weekly expirations. The extra time creates a bit of credit, as well as a bigger time window for the rather large turnaround that will be needed for something that deeply ITM to get back to the money.

Of course that's if you'd rather not buy the stock at that price. Given those are CSP then an entirely reasonable approach is to take assignment when it happens and start selling cc. Just getta get assigned at 220 or above on those calls so that you end up "stuck" with earning the premiums of the extended position, and not losing money on the strike to strike change.

 

[adiggs]

Maybe @adiggs can make a comprehensive EW-analysis , having finished the book on that.

Sadly it doesn't work that way

I mean - it can, but having read the rather brief book (~100 pages) and a lot of the analysis and nomenclature finally making some sense, I get to read it again to see if I can transform the logical progression of what I read in the first place, into knowledge that I can act on.

But I like the way you're thinking - maybe this will get me going to read the book again, and get the charting started.

 

[phantasms]

Bought a ton of 220 calls [rare for me] this morning for 2/16 and played with puts a little too early but I'd be happy to take some shares at 172.5 because we've got to bounce eventually...right....right?

 

[Max Plaid]

OK, gang, to stop the rot, I bought back all my -c185's & -c190's and sold -c175's @$6.7 for next week - plan is to roll all my -p190 & -p185's to the same strike for around break even - I have burner +c's in case of reversal

And rolled my 50x 2/9 -p190 down to 2/16 net -$9, seems a reasonable deal for $15 lower strike...

The 50x 2/16 -p185's I left in place for the moment, plenty of extrinsic in those

Goal here is to get 50x to expire, then the remaining 50x can be CSP, freeing up the 100x +p200's to be sold

 

[Jim Holder]

Keep an eye on the time value. As that approaches zero, your likelihood of assignment increases a lot. It is linear that probability.

I've got some 210 puts that I'm rolling along. When they are that deep in the money my pattern tends to be rolling a full week prior to expiration AND to roll out a month - typically to that month's monthly expiration rather than one of the weekly expirations. The extra time creates a bit of credit, as well as a bigger time window for the rather large turnaround that will be needed for something that deeply ITM to get back to the money.

Of course that's if you'd rather not buy the stock at that price. Given those are CSP then an entirely reasonable approach is to take assignment when it happens and start selling cc. Just getta get assigned at 220 or above on those calls so that you end up "stuck" with earning the premiums of the extended position, and not losing money on the strike to strike change.

Is there a difference between time value and extrinsic? I have 10x -P300 6/20/25 that show $10.06 for time value and $1.91 for extrinsic. I’ve been monitoring extrinsic not to get close to $0.00 to avoid assignment. What’s the difference between that and time value?