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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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$1.7T market for Nvidia šŸ˜±
Just be careful , stay FOTM. Chip/card/rack providers are moving quickly. Also remember to take small positions and ladder in. This morning I took a small position 5DTE -c750/-c770, the sold side was .05 delta, SP went up $80 ! A "safe?" ... not sure anymore ... spread for smci 5DTE may be -c830/+c850 which is the end of the chain!

I didn't get to close my TSLA position but am having similar thoughts to stop the bleed, let it settle, try to keep the risk low with FOTM small incremental positions in other liquid stocks.
 
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Whatever you do don't try to short NVDA. Many horror story of those that tried and tried and all end up railroaded by Jenson. The power of the leather jacket ;)

We got a V but was not strong enough for a full recovery. Let see what tomorrow bring.


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$1.7T market for Nvidia šŸ˜±
I think the rational question for NVDA is if they can incrementally increase margins with increased production... do they have something like Apple has/had where they can scale production independent of or with limited direct capital expenditure? I struggle to see how the equation works.

But honestly, the same holds true for most of the market right now.
 
Piper Sander lowered its price target on TSLA from $295 to $225.
Yes, and they estimated 1.93m deliveries 2024, which is zero growth, WTF? They used to be very thorough with their analysis in the past, but seem to have dropped the ball recently, I wonder if they changed the analyst?
 
Yes, and they estimated 1.93m deliveries 2024, which is zero growth, WTF? They used to be very thorough with their analysis in the past, but seem to have dropped the ball recently, I wonder if they changed the analyst?

Maybe without Tesla providing guidance this is what we get?
(Also maybe they're not too wrong?)
 
I think the rational question for NVDA is if they can incrementally increase margins with increased production... do they have something like Apple has/had where they can scale production independent of or with limited direct capital expenditure? I struggle to see how the equation works.

But honestly, the same holds true for most of the market right now.
Nvidia is having that 2021 Tesla moment where analysts are all upgrading on a weekly bases trying to catch up with the price targets.

As for margins, now that AMD has entered the chat, their price gouging practices couldn't go on forever. One of the problem that may not be on anyone's radar is that their margins, despite charging 45k a piece, is not over 100%. I struggle to see why when AMD is making 60% gross margin charging 15k (which is 20% GM less than Nvidia). I get that their chips are monolithic which is more expensive, but that much more expensive? So take it for what you will but the market will be buying these GPUs at any price as Musk said the race for AI is more important than anything right now.

The future for growth is inference, not training, which would naturally have a lower margin(inference chips will go into consumer products, not data centers, like the FSD computer for example).
 
The point is getting some income as well.
The first option isnā€™t profitable at all right now as rolling a month seems about rolling for 0 premium.
Thatā€™s why the second option seems the better one.
I donā€™t mind selling calls a tad beneath cost base, cause you always have a possibility somewhere to roll up/out.
Agree that income is the point - at least it is for me and why I'm doing this.

However the first priority of income is to avoid permanent loss of capital. If you've got a position you're rolling, then you're rolling it because it is a loss. In this instance profit is turning the loss into a small enough loss to just take it and be rid of the position, or holding on and being patient enough to turn it into a gain.

There are times when far enough ITM that even a monthly roll won't really generate any income - you need something more like 3, 6, 12, even all the way out to the max date rolls.


I'm with you on selling calls that are under cost base - there will (pretty much) always be a roll when approaching or just slightly ITM where well chosen calls can be rolled up and out to get to the cost basis. I say pretty much always because we've seen some really extreme instances recently where that didn't really happen.
 
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Piper Sander lowered its price target on TSLA from $295 to $225.
Thanks for sharing. This has to be considered a significant price target decrease from an analyst who actually gets it.

The thing that worries me is how much time Elon is spending on border control and what not. May be itā€™s his natural reaction to the recent verdict.

Right or wrong these two things combined will put more pressure on the stock in the coming days. I would be looking to sell CCs on any strength.

Meanwhile the NVDIA train just keeps running. Pretty amazing what that stock is doing.