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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
yeah didn't happen, 165 is channel bottom to be tested I guess.
[edit](would definitely be "significantly lower) than prior 175, as required in Wyckoff terms [/edit]
Last edited:
ChiefRollo
Member
It does, just negative. I’m just curious of TB’s perspective on P/E for his favorite company since he focuses on it being at 10 for an automotive company in the case of Tesla.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
I'm sure glad I dropped in here for some uplifting sentiment 
The funny thing is we're still 70% higher than we were at the low in early 2023 and I would argue the rise from 100/share to 299/share was built upon the belief that Tesla was laying down the hammer with those massive worldwide price cuts back at the start of Q1 2023 and that those price cuts alone were going to be enough stimulant demand for all of 2023 going into 2024.I'm sure glad I dropped in here for some uplifting sentiment
Well fast forward to today and there were many more price cuts and we're still facing a quarter that's likely going to come in weak. We're still waiting for Energy to have it's massive ramp in revenue (though the rapid improvement in gross margin has been very nice) and we're still waiting for FSD to have its ChatGP moment.
All in all......it could be worse
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
This week saw somebody compare the first few years of Tesla PE against other new BEV companies.
1 Lucid was far worse (and only lives thanks to Saudi's) (alas there SP is too low to make a lot of money shorting))
2 Rivian only a little bit better than Lucid but seriously doomed (alas there SP is too low to make a lot of money shorting)
3 Chinese (if not bankrupt, which are a lot) seemed to do far better in the early years as I to remember correctly.
If found I drop a link here..
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Does a company stock price goes up once they get included in SP500? Wondering where SMCI is headed as that may pull the market along…..
mickificki
Member
what are some things you'll be doing to position yourself in options? and for side income? thank you....It's an interesting time for sure.
The Bull narrative that the auto business alone was worth enough to justify TSLA's valuation (in the 700-1000 billion valuation range) really crumbled over the past year. Tesla made a fundamental big mistake by thinking the 3/Y, models that had been out for a while at that point, were good/new enough to draw enough demand to continue ramping them in the face of rising inflation. They waited too long for the compact car. They took too long with the Cybertruck. And the end result is a one to two year gap with growth is facing major headwinds.
Energy has taken too long to ramp to shore up the valuation in face of the auto business decline in profitability. Then add in CEO-related self inflicted wounds from turning off investors and potential customers to being too stubborn to recognize that alternative methods are needed to meet production goals (traditional advertising). Just my own theory but I think the reason Zach left is that he fundamentally didn't agree with Elon on running Tesla today as a start up. Elon's focused on autonomy/AI/robotics/etc and is willing to sacrifice the auto business (in regards to it's profits/earnings) without a second thought or even putting in a ounce of effort. I don't think Zach agreed with that
But the reality is after 2024, that will all behind the stock. Cybertruck will be at decent ramp. Compact car will be 2nd half 2025. Energy will have ramped in a major way due to Shanghai Megapack factory being online. Interest rates will be down helping organic demand. Entirely possible that ASP stabilizes as rates come down to where COGS decline more and thus we get margin expansion once again. And FSD will have another 9-12 months of advancements which given it's rate of progress, translate to some truly impressive software at that point.
2024 is likely going to suck (or I guess I should say continue to suck) but I'm positioning myself through options to ride a major rally in 2025 and beyond. The main difference now is while I'm positioning for a major rally, I'm going to make side income in the meantime even though that'll likely mean I cap myself on gains if the stock goes significantly higher than it's ATH in 2025 or 1st half 2026....and after the past 2 and half years of this stock. I'm totally fine with that. Not even remotely thinking of selling my current position though at today's valuation or even a 300/share valuation.
dc_h
Active Member
Off track, but energy storage may get added to valuations after this quarter. It's been too small, but revenues should be there to be accounted for and factored into net present value. If Elon would run the earnings call like an earnings call, instead of a bitch session, maybe that would have happened by now. FSD, AI & Robotics are likely years from being valued into the stock price. I shared your thoughts 3 years ago but now more worried Elon will start another project for Tesla before delivering the Model 2, getting FSD to L5, Semi or Roadster. One bright spot is the truck may be scaling and should be past 100,000 run rate by Q4.
Delayed projects affect NPV, which reflects discounted future earnings: Semi - 3-5 years late, CyberTruck 2-3 years late, Model 2, 2+ years late, Roadster 5 years late, 4680 cells later than expected and delaying other products. No path perceived by the market back to 50% growth. If the market thought they had 30% growth through 2030, the stock would hit 250 tomorrow, and honestly that is possible.
*apologies, not an options post. I won't be hurt if deleted.
ChiefRollo
Member
Exiting 2021 with over 900k units sold, facing the Fed’s hiking cycle to start in early 2022, the prevailing narrative at that time was Tesla will not be able to grow sales in a high-interest environment (high monthly payments). Fast forward to the end of 2023, Tesla sold over 1.8M units. What did those narrative makers have to say? That’s right, anything else but that. Perhaps EM is simply tired of prioritizing these narrative (makers) who have consistently been proven to wish nothing but harm to his company. As Tesla is still making money and having enough to cover current and future investments, he may have chosen to ignore them as noise.The funny thing is we're still 70% higher than we were at the low in early 2023 and I would argue the rise from 100/share to 299/share was built upon the belief that Tesla was laying down the hammer with those massive worldwide price cuts back at the start of Q1 2023 and that those price cuts alone were going to be enough stimulant demand for all of 2023 going into 2024.
Well fast forward to today and there were many more price cuts and we're still facing a quarter that's likely going to come in weak. We're still waiting for Energy to have it's massive ramp in revenue (though the rapid improvement in gross margin has been very nice) and we're still waiting for FSD to have its ChatGP moment.
All in all......it could be worse
Sucks for us longs I know. What would be our preferred alternative? Should Tesla be run by an automotive incumbent (perhaps the former head of Ford) who’s friendly with Wall Street and willing to cater to them…effectively turning Tesla into a good automotive EV company, dropping all other initiatives? May be a good option to some of us; I know I wouldn’t be interested in the stock (just as I have never once thought of investing / trading and having fun in Toyota, Ford or GM…you know great automotive companies).
ChiefRollo
Member
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