Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

Yes it's self-reported but it's always been self-reported so thus, it doesn't invalidate the data.

To think that a the majority of those inputting their data would for whatever reason suddenly change how they're reporting just to make the data look more or less bullish based on certain release seems to be grasping for straws, especially considering how long this data set has been collected/inputted.

It’s not so much about false reporting, or trying to alter the mathematical outcome - more than if one does the same set of drivers, over and over again, even as progress IS present in the FSD, the drivers interpretation of what would say 1-1.5 years ago cause a DE, has been adjusted down. You KNOW the car is going to come close to the curb, but for the most part it hasn’t hit it.. 1-1.5 years ago, you would have most likely Dis-engaged, but today you just let it go (ok, not a good example as V12 certainly has more curb impacts and curb rash that prior 11.xx versions).. but the driver making the decision to DE, and then of course noting it as such has been altered.

Wrong thread, I know.

 

[tivoboy]

@tivoboy, what on earth are you talking about here?



1. On March 29, Tesla tweeted that they produced their 6 millionth car.
2. We need to find out how many cars they produced before this quarter so we can calculate production in Q1 2024 between January 1st and March 29th. Luckily, that's not a problem because there is a public spreadsheet here that I created which shows Tesla's production history. It shows 5,572,978 production until the end of 2023.

We need to add 2,349 Roadster Original that were produced between 2008-2012. That brings the total to 5,575,327. When we subtract this number from 6,000,000, we get 424,673 production between January 1st and March 29th.

This number is pretty much as expected. What are you talking about?

Sorry, i read that x post (maybe it was the google doc sheet) as the total TO DATE, So with the projection of 409K, we’re just about 15.5K below the 6M number reported. Is that correct?

 

[stealthyc]

Count me in the corner of folks who think people are being overly optimistic about FSD. I would absolutely love to be proved wrong though. There are currently just way too many things that it still can't handle, or brazen mistakes it makes for me to feel too optimistic about it in any way other than perhaps a bit of uptake in subscription in the short term. 11->12 was indeed a massive improvement, but given that it is a different implementation paradigm it's hard to really gauge anything from that as it regards to consistent progress toward the march of nines. The next several updates will be telling, as we will see if we will be getting an increase in improvement rate as hopefully promised by the end-to-end architecture.

 

[dc_h]

Looks like 170.21 was the bottom for today?
Short sellers from the first hour are covering now?

Nice, I closed 200 CC's for Friday. I'm sure they are safe, but I'm getting out of the way. I still expect a drop and this may be the path to 144 this week, before rebounding on FSD news, Cyber ramping and earnings results that might beat with some help from Tesla Energy storage. I still have strikes at 225, 230, 250 & up, but only where I'm ok exiting.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Nice, I closed 200 CC's for Friday. I'm sure they are safe, but I'm getting out of the way. I still expect a drop and this may be the path to 144 this week, before rebounding on FSD news, Cyber ramping and earnings results that might beat with some help from Tesla Energy storage. I still have strikes at 225, 230, 250 & up, but only where I'm ok exiting.

We'll already know if Energy is going to materially help out Q1 earnings tomorrow since they'll report Energy deployment on the P/D numbers

 

[Jim Holder]

Throw a dart:

Tesla Q1-24 Deliveries
409,000 - @TroyTeslike
415,000 - @ Garyblack00
417,500 - @TSLAFanMtl
418,000 - @Couch_Investor
420,471 - @CuriousPejjy
422,609 - @Alojoh
426,000 - @DivesTech
431,795 - @ FutureAZA
431,125 - WS Consensus Median
465,000 - @ Future Uber Driver

 

[juanmedina]

I am positioning mostly to the down side. If P&D is bad how long will it go? $140?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774839477971620305

 

[Jim Holder]

Looking to guesstimate probability levels for top and bottom SP pump or drop per X number deliveries missed. Anyone done this in the past?

Is there a method?

For example:
409,000 = $148
415,000 = $152
418,000 = $155
420,000 = $160
430,000 = $168
440,000 = $180
450,000 = $185
465,000 = $195

Obviously not set in stone, just to have some reasonable framework, or is it all emotional and nothing counts during such times, think RPG exploding and blowing all TA and Fundamental lines up.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Went in for a cheap Put Spread.

 

[Jim Holder]

Data suggesting it may try for a pump into 2nd half of the day. Let's see.
Good chance to open new shorts if still have to (and feeling bearish still).

 

[tivoboy]

Looking to guesstimate probability levels for top and bottom SP pump or drop per X number deliveries missed. Anyone done this in the past?

Is there a method?

For example:
409,000 = $148
415,000 = $152
418,000 = $155
420,000 = $160
430,000 = $168
440,000 = $180
450,000 = $185
465,000 = $195

Obviously not set in stone, just to have some reasonable framework, or is it all emotional and nothing counts during such times, think RPG exploding and blowing all TA and Fundamental lines up.

IF/once it breaks $159, it won’t be an orderly draw down. NFA

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[Jim Holder]

IF/once it breaks $159, it won’t be an orderly draw down. NFA

Makes sense, $159 seem to be the Oppenheimer level to blow up.

So seems like there's more chaos than some neat mathematical correlation between how large the miss was (or wasn't) to how the stock reacts x dollars for X miss. Perhaps it's just all emotions/algos and everyone with conflicting agendas (i.e., shorts closing shorts to take profit -- inadvertently boosting price; shorts piling on -- causing more dumping; bulls jumping to BTD -- boosting price; bulls capitulating -- causing more dumping). So like a drunken rave at 3am.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Makes sense, $159 seem to be the Oppenheimer level to blow up.

So seems like there's more chaos than some neat mathematical correlation between how large the miss was (or wasn't) to how the stock reacts x dollars for X miss. Perhaps it's just all emotions/algos and everyone with conflicting agendas (i.e., shorts closing shorts to take profit -- inadvertently boosting price; shorts piling on -- causing more dumping; bulls jumping to BTD -- boosting price; bulls capitulating -- causing more dumping). So like a drunken rave at 3am.

Let get it to 145 1st then all the way back to 300 by end of the year. So everyone and their mom and their grandmother are happy. Win win......

 

[juanmedina]

Ok ppl, breaks over. Let’s get out there and make some money!.

volatility brings opportunity. There’s really nobody HERE who didn’t see this coming. Some were more prepared than others. If you’re holden’ and didn’t fold’em there’s gonna be nice -CC rev to be made in the short/near term.

My first move today will be to sell the $200 +p 2/23/24 bought when we were at $254. There’s probably more $$ there to be made but I’m raising more cash.

If you had dry powder, your ship has come in. There’s a sale for the foreseeable future and if you’re not JUST HODL, and willing to work for it this is the greatest trading money maker I’ve seen in many years if not decades.

Daddy’s got a bag full of cash and a full tank of gas. So let’s get out there and turn water into WINE! Ich habe Dampf drauf!

Any updates on your plan? Do you still believe there is the "greatest trading money maker" option here? Do you have any targets for start adding shares?

 

[BornToFly]

He's predicting a Green close today. I wouldn't be surprised. Makes me a little nervous for my Friday 180CCs...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774864676461105268

 

[thenewguy1979]

Data suggesting it may try for a pump into 2nd half of the day. Let's see.
Good chance to open new shorts if still have to (and feeling bearish still).

View attachment 1034274

You nailed the pump Jimmy....good time to get into short if anyone still Bearish

 

[Yoona]

Hello!.. well technically. I meant even a dog - which is color blind - could divine from @Yoona ‘s RED and GREEN chart.

6Δ daytrade is now +77%, ~1% ROIC 5 hrs... time to exit

green!

TSLA 4/5 bets (size >= $100k):

 

[thenewguy1979]

Anyone who believed in the Future Guy - cheap Call Spread Play

Maybe he can quit Uber after this

 

[Yoona]

"The "10 AM Trend Time" concept is crucial, particularly for day traders or active investors in the markets. The first 30 minutes are typically volatile with significant moves, but the period from 10 AM to 10:30 AM often determines the activity for the rest of the day. It decides whether the market will chop or trend. Around 10 AM, you will often observe rejections, bounces, flag breaks, continuations, and reversals; this can occur at 10:15 or 10:30, but I generally refer to it as the "10 AM Trend Time Concept." I have been teaching this concept for many years, providing traders with a special edge in trading and managing risk."

i am itching to backtest this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774814501965373904