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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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I have a meticulous device that is right about half the time

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As mentioned, BTC 100x TSLA 4/5 -c170 (net +$9.2) -> STO 100x TSLA 4/5 -c165 +$4.2

I'm so, so tempted to straddle with 100x puts, but I see zero rationale for the SP not to have crashed hard today, really hard, but it's hard when you have 100x July +p150's, so easy to write calendars against those now, but my eye is on a bigger prize...

Edited for typo
 
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Not so true, one in particular stated he was right on 2 calls and that should be respected. Or was that the traveler guy who predicted TSLA going up.

But...I am surprised TSLA has held up fairly well, considering this P&D was a disaster. I did sell most of my puts for a very nice profit and bought some TSLA during the big dip to 162 premarket, so, this has been a good day.

Now, as you state, let’s wait for how WS adjusts ER numbers and EPS, and then, the stock might slide into the 150’s, or lower... great buying opportunities ahead.

Yeh, he called for 465k+ cars delivered and a $180-$220 range face-ripper today. Look we can all be wrong and it's okay too. We as traders need to just be careful following blindly and always use other confluences to support any thesis before pressing buy or sell.
 
Not so true, one in particular stated he was right on 2 calls and that should be respected. Or was that the traveler guy who predicted TSLA going up.

But...I am surprised TSLA has held up fairly well, considering this P&D was a disaster. I did sell most of my puts for a very nice profit and bought some TSLA during the big dip to 162 premarket, so, this has been a good day.

Now, as you state, let’s wait for how WS adjusts ER numbers and EPS, and then, the stock might slide into the 150’s, or lower... great buying opportunities ahead.
If...and it's a big IF....TSLA actually holds and does not put in a lower bottom, I think it's fairly safe to say that at FSD is being given some value today. At least the accelerated FSD progress.

I'd have to imagine if V12 hadn't come out in the past couple of months and shown the progress that it had, the stock would easily be in the 140's right now. Probably even lower.
 
Can you elaborate what you mean?

Also, does it make sense to deploy some gains capital for +C200 6/18/2026 LEAP @$45 which is at its lowest price ever currently. Can always cut if we fall through the trapdoor and break $160.
Typo "not to have crashed"...

I wouldn't personally buy more +c200's right now because I think we're going to drop from here and I'd be waiting for a lower price

Same reason I won't sell puts yet, the dump I expected today may arrive tomorrow, or the day after, etc... I feel much safer being aggressive with cc's from here
 
Recent FSD progress is the only thing that makes this price action make any sense imho.

Also, the last two P&D reports are perfect examples of how one can even know the future and still get it wrong in the stock market. TSLA dropped on a beat on Q4's P&D, and has had a pretty modest reaction to an absolute dumpster fire in Q1.
 
I'm disappointed my 155CC didn't role on Friday. I caught it yesterday and didn't resell it, figuring perhaps the bad numbers were baked in. I hate selling a lot of CC's while we are falling, after getting burned when we closed in on 100 and had to roll calls out two years. I hope 144 is as bad as it gets with new products in the pipeline, but need to remain agnostic about short term TSLA when selling calls. I had hoped energy would be closer to 5GW to have a bigger earnings impact. Cyber sales at 1000 a week is not enough to help guidance for Q2 and FSD is not likely to move to 20% adoption soon, even if it really is crushing the 9's. Model Y refresh, Model 2 compact and some positive press for EV's in general and Tesla in particular is needed to turn the stock around.
For now, I'm rolling longer dated CC's down and closer dates and hope I don't have to roll them out again.
 
...

Looking at optionstrat based on market close and pricing, the contract value will be exactly or close to that in the AM. I will act at market open , close out today's position and choose another .04 delta spread for the day (and the closing order for 75% to start) while anxiously awaiting TSLA P&D dust storm. GLTA!

Taking a break from watching TSLA dip ... still holding the long jan '25 puts and the bear put spread for the 12th ala @Blue horseshoe.

Fun with other tickers... I did close the call side of the SMCI trade this morning for .30 (85%), did better than the anticipated .50 (75%), then sold the put side 4/5 +750/-850 which was .04 delta when ordered , up $10 strike for 1.40. Learnings from yesterday's miss, I now have a sell order in for .35 and if it doesn't hit, will close before end of day to not be in an overnight position.
 
Recent FSD progress is the only thing that makes this price action make any sense imho.

Also, the last two P&D reports are perfect examples of how one can even know the future and still get it wrong in the stock market. TSLA dropped on a beat on Q4's P&D, and has had a pretty modest reaction to an absolute dumpster fire in Q1.

Must be. I added more puts and now they are bleeding. I am going to let them ride one more day and see what happens and if the stock doesn't move I will close them. TSLAQ must be feeling upset right now 😂 .
 
I’m thinking weak deliveries was too telegraphed to go down too much today. It was pretty expected so people have to close short calls and take profits on puts and reposition. I don’t think the other shoe has dropped yet after just 4 hours, though. The stock doesn’t go down all in one day.

Holding short calls 170-180 every week this month. Plus +p165-160 for Friday, 4/19, and 4/26.