Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

But thats not what I'm talking about - people who say SP will be at this price on this date (or week etc). I have not seen anyone rigorously put it in a spreadsheet and publish their forecast vs actuals.

To me its like the soothsayers. If they are real, do you know how much CIA would pay for them .... several "3rd world" countries, at least

The closest I've found to someone who reads charts well and makes excellent calls on TSLA price action --outside our cabal of pirates and seers here-- is Cary from Wicked Stocks. I've been following him since early 2023 and he's been eerily on point with daily and weekly channel turns.

Just today is a great example. I played his TA with calls up and short-calls down. Was excellent!

The annotations on my chart are partially based on Cary's daily TSLA update + QTA/GEX/TMC data as well.

 

[Jim Holder]

Bought them back for $1.51. $1.08 profit in a few hours. You’re right, take the money and run. Thanks for the NFA!

Happy for you. Remember to sell them again (if you still want to) on next break of support.
Easy to forget to do so I found!

 

[Jim Holder]

Updated GEX profile for this week. $170 may become sticky.

 

[tivoboy]

Here’s where I always get confused. Buy them back now for 40% profit or no? On one hand great gains for the day. On the other hand I may not have a good opportunity to make that remaining 60% by next Friday anyway.

Maybe buy back half, book it, and re-write tomorrow? Tomorrow is a bit of a wild card.

Update: looks like I missed that little bug that says “there have been posts since your last view” or something like that. ;-0

 

[Yoona]

TSLA is doing great - #13 in S&P 500 and #2 in NASDAQ 100

 

[EVNow]

Cary from Wicked Stocks.

Yes, I watch him daily. But he doesn't really forecast or predict. He just says here are the support / resistance levels and their strength.

I've found his levels to be somewhat useful ... but some levels just roll over very easily. May be more hits than misses ...

ps : Again no documented spreadsheet comparing predictions to actuals.

 

[Jim Holder]

So trying again: Anyone know what the billions in TSLA buying this morning was all about (Maginot crew?) only for TSLA to give back half or more of its pop. Maybe it's normal consolidation, I don't know.

Was it perhaps shorts/puts moving their hedges from 4/19 to 4/26 because of the surprise move of ER date, and closing puts=buying shares=a pop, then opening the new shorts/put brought SP down again (helped along with macro fade), or is something else going on?

 

[EVNow]

So trying again: Anyone know what the billions in TSLA buying this morning was all about (Maginot crew?) only for TSLA to give back half or more of its pop. Maybe it's normal consolidation, I don't know.

Was it perhaps shorts/puts moving their hedges from 4/19 to 4/26 because of the surprise move of ER date, and closing puts=buying shares=a pop, then opening the new shorts/put brought SP down again (helped along with macro fade), or is something else going on?

Those who know can't speak and those who speak don't know

 

[tivoboy]

$VIX1D 0DTE was up 135%… cray cray.

Someone here had some 4/5 or 4/12 ~ $170 TSLA +p…did they rally and did you close them?

Just so everyone knows, nobody really LISTENS to Kashkari, so even though I’m short SPY, QQQ, NDX and long VIX, I don’t think this was the end of this little mini bull cycle.

 

[saniflash]

So trying again: Anyone know what the billions in TSLA buying this morning was all about (Maginot crew?) only for TSLA to give back half or more of its pop. Maybe it's normal consolidation, I don't know.

Was it perhaps shorts/puts moving their hedges from 4/19 to 4/26 because of the surprise move of ER date, and closing puts=buying shares=a pop, then opening the new shorts/put brought SP down again (helped along with macro fade), or is something else going on?

my guess is put holders closing their positions causing MMs to buy back their short positions, once the stock price started to rise shorts started to close their positions, adding upwards pressure

 

[Jim Holder]

$VIX1D 0DTE was up 135%… cray cray.

Someone here had some 4/5 or 4/12 ~ $170 TSLA +p…did they rally and did you close them?

Big candle on VIX with STOCH too. Something's cooking...

 

[tivoboy]

So trying again: Anyone know what the billions in TSLA buying this morning was all about (Maginot crew?) only for TSLA to give back half or more of its pop. Maybe it's normal consolidation, I don't know.

Was it perhaps shorts/puts moving their hedges from 4/19 to 4/26 because of the surprise move of ER date, and closing puts=buying shares=a pop, then opening the new shorts/put brought SP down again (helped along with macro fade), or is something else going on?

Tesla is not immune to what was PERCEIVED at least as a major mkt influence… Middle East, OIL, NO RATE CUTS hyperBOWL.. etc.

 

[Max Plaid]

But thats not what I'm talking about - people who say SP will be at this price on this date (or week etc). I have not seen anyone rigorously put it in a spreadsheet and publish their forecast vs actuals.

To me its like the soothsayers. If they are real, do you know how much CIA would pay for them .... several "3rd world" countries, at least

I suspect you'll find on average they're all correct 50% of the time but only 50% of them correct at any one moment in time...

 

[Max Plaid]

NFA I always take (decent) green when I see it. To me I can always re-STO from here or next break of support level if we continue going down. This way I still have the gains in my pocket in case of a reversal upside, and can get back in if it continues down. This approach did me very well.

Agreed, I have a general rule-of-thumb that if a position goes 50% profits within 24 hours I'll take it...

You never lose money from closing-out winning trades

 

[Jim Holder]

I suspect you'll find on average they're all correct 50% of the time but only 50% of them correct at any one moment in time...

IMO the problem is when we view them as predictions versus their take on probability.

When I view them as a decent take on probability, and I see it start to unfold(!), THEN following it turns out to be profitable.

I think this distinction is the key.

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775983754265387216

 

[dc_h]

Always interesting to read everyone's style on the thread, so many approaches.

Surprising strong up most of the day and then revert at the end. I don't think the time traveller called the regression back to 171. I sold some 4/5 180 CC's for .61, got a little nervous but held out to buy back at .19. As Yoona would say, 60% profit is good. I have 170 calls expiring tomorrow, I sold when we were around 165. I'll wait and roll, as needed tomorrow, leaving the 170 strike. I also sold some 180 and 185 April 19th CC's, which are close to ATM for me, but I think are safe. I'll roll out a few months, if needed.
For what it is worth, I've been leaving all CC profits in cash and if we hit 144 and start to bounce back, I'll buy shares or some longer dated 100 calls.

Personal note, I quit coffee a couple of years ago. It has had a major impact on avoiding impetuous decisions. I make plenty of mistakes, but avoiding bigger mistakes and taking my time backing out of the errors I do make has made this process we are all in, more profitable and a little more boring. Like distance running, you can't make up the miles in minutes, but you can make up minutes in miles.

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775914057389814076

 

[Cherry Wine]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775914057389814076

Translation, por favor?

 

[Jim Holder]

Translation, por favor?

This was during the push to $177 and before the retracement back down. He’s saying the move up was helping solidify that the low was in at $160. Going forward it’ll need to hold the $168 level and then take out $183 (and then $206) to truly confirm. Losing $168 opens the door to lower lows possibility.