Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Informative as usual.. thanks for the work.
I wonder if there is ANY way to estimate what the transfer to new vehicle rate is.. 50% sounds high, 10% sounds low, something like 20-25% seems most reasonable - but as you say we really have no way of knowing..
But at least we know the universe of most likely at least L4 promised to them is >~45K owners (maybe less with 2 cars per family unit)
That many cars, X some compounded valuation of monies paid, could be ~ 1$B. Seems like a pretty large amount, and one where I’d think the better path would be allow ALL those ppl to transfer FSD to a new vehicle for LIFE.
well, keep in mind the folks we're talking about only paid 3k for FSD mostly (a few may have paid 2k or 4k)... because you had to buy EAP (for 5-6k mostly) before you could add FSD on top.
And EAP has been a fully delivered product on those cars, for years.
So 45k owners times 3k liability is only 135 million bucks.
Even if DOUBLE that for interest (and real world would be lower) you're only just over 1/4 billion. Not nothing, but not that huge an amount to Tesla.
That said- current path seems to be keep offering FSD transfer until they filter as many as possible out either through the transfers or simply leaving service- so # should keep shrinking over time too.
Nothing here seems material to anything short term though....