Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[thenewguy1979]

Using a similar strategy. I have a certain allotment of c170-200 2026 LEAPS that I will keep and roll forward probably annually for the new few years while I slowly accumulate at similar strike prices and lower prices since I'm cash flow positive on significant basis because I will continue to work at the company I'm at for the foreseeable future (great work live balance). The cash needed to roll the LEAPS a year at a time is small % of my FCF from my job on a annual basis.

The LEAPS I own act as proxy shares if the TSLA has it's Chatgp moment over the couple of years where the stock goes a a Nvidia type run.

Most of the share accumulation I'll be doing over the next couple of years is to lower the price I need TSLA to be at to do my "farewell into cozy retirement" and thus I can then start to sell CC's at the lower strike prices to get even more income.

I actually wouldn't mind if TSLA just stayed range bound of like 150-300 for the next 3-4 years. Would allow me to accumulate enough shares to where I could apply a options strategy to replace my income and my wife's pretty safely, with the obvious risk always being the stock goes a 2-3X run in single years time where my CC's will be exercised. If that scenario ends up happening, I'll happily part with the shares and start to enjoy my free time

If we do get a big dump it should be this week. If no dump then as some suspected this is the base where we round upward..

Nothing seems to suggest we stop here so far. Indication of Macro and News show more potential pains, unless some rabbits can be pulled out at ER.

If Im going go long it going be from 125-145 ranges for put spread buying. Not selling anything but just some cheapo bets.

 

[tivoboy]

Can anyone suggest a source where I could access intraday (e.g. 5 minutes interval) stock and options prices for the past year or so?

Free is best, but a reasonable low cost source would interest me as well.

Thanks in advance!

A free TOS account will give some of that. I think it's called thinkback or backtrack. But I think it only gives hi/lo/close data. So, it's not exactly what you want. But looking back at various points in time relative to stock price or other metrics/Indicies/equities is good insight.

 

[EVNow]

simple question - Which of these features does Waymo L4 have?

To start RT network, can we not assume FSD must be at par or if not slightly better than waymo/cruise? School zones etc in a geofenced solution could be heuristic based (on top of the current NN)

The specs is full of lot of things, but as far as implementation we just have waymo and Cruise as the current gold standard. cheers!!

You may not have spent much time tracking this - but many of us have ! I even made a thread for this 5 years back.

I’ve not updated this in a while - but I will soon.

Wiki - Tracking FSD Feature Complete

Background : In the Ark podcast Musk said they are planning to be feature complete by the end of the this year (2019). Feature complete is a specific software term that means set of features that are planned for a particular project / release have been coded & tested to be working to meet the...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[elasalle]

You may not have spent much time tracking this - but many of us have ! I even made a thread for this 5 years back.

I’ve not updated this in a while - but I will soon.

Wiki - Tracking FSD Feature Complete

Background : In the Ark podcast Musk said they are planning to be feature complete by the end of the this year (2019). Feature complete is a specific software term that means set of features that are planned for a particular project / release have been coded & tested to be working to meet the...

teslamotorsclub.com

Great looking forward for the update
Wasn’t interested in FSD until v12 came along- bought it just to support Tesla and investment thesis

Just eye balling list of features, other than a few like reverse, moving to min risk condition- I think FSD will have more features checked than waymo. Cheers!!

 

[EVNow]

Can anyone suggest a source where I could access intraday (e.g. 5 minutes interval) stock and options prices for the past year or so?

Free is best, but a reasonable low cost source would interest me as well.

Thanks in advance!

You can’t get options data easily. A couple of years back I was looking… couldn’t find any for intraday prices. Just end of day - paid service I unsubscribed after a while since I was not sure about accuracy.

 

[EVNow]

you can get an IBKR account. they have option price chart for each individual option.

Do they work for expired options ? Fidelity has charts too but only for unexpired.

 

[EVNow]

Great looking forward for the update
Wasn’t interested in FSD until v12 came along- bought it just to support Tesla and investment thesis

Just eye balling list of features, other than a few like reverse, moving to min risk condition- I think FSD will have more features checked than waymo. Cheers!!

Waymo does everything in NHTSA and Waymo+ list.

Waymo+ list is stuff Waymo tests for apart from the NHTSA guidance, which ofcourse they test.

 

[adiggs]

i know this has been discussed to death and i wish i paid more attention, but can someone PLEASE give a cheat sheet on LEAPS? i want to try it out for a trial PMCC: i am thinking SMCI ATM CC $44(!) credit

LEAPs cheat sheet.

As I understand things we are larding up the term LEAP with a bunch of extra meaning. We use LEAP to mean a long dated long / purchased call. Long being more than 12 months.

But really a LEAP is just a 12+ month DTE option. You can buy or sell, puts or calls, put them together into spreads, and any/everything you can do with options. Because the only thing that makes a LEAP, a LEAP, is that expiration day is 12+ months out.

 

[InTheMiddle]

Question to those who share option order data here...can you please describe your criteria and thought processes on what orders you look for? @Yoona 's screenshots appear to filter and show only orders > $1M, but one of @Jim Holder 's screenshots showed adjacent, smaller options contract flow that I did not anticipate anyone looking at. Are each of you looking for / filtering on specific criteria because they are more industry-standard criteria, or just your individual filtering based on one individual line item being a big number? BTO 1200x TSLA240426C100 would obviously appear and trigger many alerts, but would breaking it up into a half-dozen BTO 200x TSLA240426C100 throughout Monday (or even Monday-Wednesday) mean each could individually typically slide under-the-radar? Or would those be aggregated in standard views, and instead buying various strikes at various expiration dates would be suggested to avoid drawing attention?

 

[mrmage]

The wildcard that I have lost some cycles to, is whether the investor community is about to experience a ChatGPT moment regarding FSD technology development. In this situation AI type multiples and hype are suddenly the driving story about the company, and as we've seen with NVIDIA, its hard to find a price that is too high. In Tesla's case it could be even better than most anybody else has experienced as Tesla's technology will be an actual instantiation of what's possible, instead of a bunch more potential that is largely unrealized.

While I do think about that ChatGPT moment, and lacking information from the earnings call and later this 8/8 event, I view this as a Nothingburger, at least for 2024. My rationale is that - yes - FSD is amazing. I use it daily, I have used it daily for years (I'm taking the over on me having driven 10k miles on autopilot), and I think that the technology is even better than most anybody realizes.

However a ChatGPT moment needs a lot of people to personally experience the technology, not read about somebody else's experience. There are maybe 100k people in the US with direct personal experience? It's not 1M. Are there meaningful numbers of people anywhere else in the world?

I took an investing buddy out today in Hugo (our Model X) and got him into the driver's seat and a dozen miles of FSD driving. That very first corner where FSD takes the car around the corner - that's an experience I remember for myself. Do you remember that moment for yourself? THAT is a ChatGPT moment and he had that today. So now we've got 100,001 people that have had the opportunity for that.

So yes - it COULD happen. My own decision is that I don't yet know enough, I expect the company to talk about this a lot at the earnings call, and I have a heavy bias towards "it doesn't matter" for 2024 and probably 2025 (to the short/medium term share price and company valuation).

That means I give ~zero revenue to robotaxi for this year and next, and consider 2026 for anything more than Waymo / Cruise scale deployment and revenue to be aggressive.


Outside of teh ChatGPT type of moment, the sorts of things that I am looking for that tells me we're approaching technology that can support robotaxi.... are enough of us using FSD, and we've been using it long enough, that we're no longer marveling over how amazing it is?

Can we see the changes in behavior from update to update? I most defnitely can.

I'll consider robotaxi technology to be getting close when we've got release after release that is improving the technology, but we the daily users can't tell what those differences and improvements are. That's the march of 9s hard at work, digging deeper and deeper into corner cases and solving them. In this view of things we CAN'T see that this year. If the very next release I get exhibits this behavior (seems to work the same as the current release; it better be better!), and I see another release each month for the rest of the year with similarly outstanding and unchanging behavior, and that is our shared experience in this forum, then the very soonest this criteria can be met is next year.

Is 6-9 months of constant improvement that most people never see or experience themselves enough for society to be ready for driverless cars roaming the streets? I don't think so, but that's an opinion. I suppose that could be enough for a ChatGPT type of moment though (holy heck - its really happening, and really real!!! kind of thing).


Bottom line for me - I'll continue monitoring. I do recommend to any and all investors that they need to own and drive a Tesla, because the owner experience is (MHO) an important part of the investing rationale. And until I hear something from the company that convinces me otherwise, my portfolio won't reflect a robotaxi driven ChatGPT moment as a possibility for 2024. If anything I expect this to be a buy-the-rumor (omg - how good could fsd be!?!!), sell-the-news (they're just saying what they keep saying every year; NEXT year is the one!) thing, where the company starts talking and possibilities get resolved, and its clearly another Nothingburger, just like it has been for years.

(I just realized this is probably more appropriate in the FSD Discussion thread.. Sigh)

The difference is that NVDA has traded on it's fundamentals, with a forward PE (31 now) that's very reasonable for it's growth, irrespective of the chatgpt moment.

I've been blown away by fsd 12.4 too. But when 500k miles between disengagements is needed for production, 10 to 50 miles is a prototype.

As Elon said, prototypes are easy. Products are hard.

 

[Yoona]

TY, @adiggs

i have a weekend brainer teaser for you geniuses out there, hope anyone can help!

i am trying to understand naked CC

i have naked 4/26 SMCI CC 920 credit 4.6, stock is currently 710

credit is now 3.1 so obviously this is printing money and i don't need to spend capital reserving the stock since i am 210 OTM

but i changed my mind, i want to roll it down to 4/26 785 to get 13.50 more credit (total credit 18.10, still naked)

as long as stock stays below 785, very good

if stock climbs up to 784.75, i have to start covering... can i not just buy stock at that point so that position is no longer naked?

i don't want to buy stock now at 710 because there is risk of falling further

rinse and repeat: sell naked OTM CC and just buy stock when it is creeping up to strike

OTOH, i can just buy stock now at 710 and still do the 785 roll (and get my 18.10), but i'm scared of stock falling further

helpmeeeeeeeeeeee!

 

[vikings123]

TY, @adiggs

i have a weekend brainer teaser for you geniuses out there, hope anyone can help!

i am trying to understand naked CC

i have naked 4/26 SMCI CC 920 credit 4.6, stock is currently 710

credit is now 3.1 so obviously this is printing money and i don't need to spend capital reserving the stock since i am 210 OTM

but i changed my mind, i want to roll it down to 4/26 785 to get 13.50 more credit (total credit 18.10, still naked)

as long as stock stays below 785, very good

if stock climbs up to 784.75, i have to start covering... can i not just buy stock at that point so that position is no longer naked?

i don't want to buy stock now at 710 because there is risk of falling further

rinse and repeat: sell naked OTM CC and just buy stock when it is creeping up to strike

OTOH, i can just buy stock now at 710 and still do the 785 roll (and get my 18.10), but i'm scared of stock falling further

helpmeeeeeeeeeeee!

The love affair with SMCI continues .

Seriously though why bother going naked on a volatile stock like SMCI which trades with 4-5 dollar spread. Your strategy works except if there is some news after market hours.

A stock split or some pre announcement of earnings or something else could catch the shorts off guard. I would not go naked especially the 785 strike that’s for sure, at least look to limit downside by buying a 875 call or something like that. This is one case where using a spread actually makes perfect sense.

 

[aerocristobal]

TY, @adiggs

i have a weekend brainer teaser for you geniuses out there, hope anyone can help!

i am trying to understand naked CC

i have naked 4/26 SMCI CC 920 credit 4.6, stock is currently 710

credit is now 3.1 so obviously this is printing money and i don't need to spend capital reserving the stock since i am 210 OTM

but i changed my mind, i want to roll it down to 4/26 785 to get 13.50 more credit (total credit 18.10, still naked)

as long as stock stays below 785, very good

if stock climbs up to 784.75, i have to start covering... can i not just buy stock at that point so that position is no longer naked?

i don't want to buy stock now at 710 because there is risk of falling further

rinse and repeat: sell naked OTM CC and just buy stock when it is creeping up to strike

OTOH, i can just buy stock now at 710 and still do the 785 roll (and get my 18.10), but i'm scared of stock falling further

helpmeeeeeeeeeeee!

I don't have experience with naked calls, but based on my experience with having some covered calls exercised, the broker pulls whatever number of shares are required to meet the obligation of the call from the account. After the fact, I adjust the lots to match the cost basis I want to use for the transaction. As long as you have shares when it is exercised, I don't think it matters when you bought them, and if you don't have shares because they are naked when exercised, then the margin and/or cash are used to purchase and deliver the shares. I'm not sure how that after-hours transaction happens or is priced since options clear on the weekend. I would be curious to learn from others who have gone through that.

 

[Yoona]

The love affair with SMCI continues .

Seriously though why bother going naked on a volatile stock like SMCI which trades with 4-5 dollar spread. Your strategy works except if there is some news after market hours.

A stock split or some pre announcement of earnings or something else could catch the shorts off guard. I would not go naked especially the 785 strike that’s for sure, at least look to limit downside by buying a 875 call or something like that. This is one case where using a spread actually makes perfect sense.

ty

u r right, it can fall but it can also shoot up 30%+, i forgot about that!!!!

ordering it asap

 

[InTheMiddle]

TY, @adiggs

i have a weekend brainer teaser for you geniuses out there, hope anyone can help!

i am trying to understand naked CC

i have naked 4/26 SMCI CC 920 credit 4.6, stock is currently 710

credit is now 3.1 so obviously this is printing money and i don't need to spend capital reserving the stock since i am 210 OTM

but i changed my mind, i want to roll it down to 4/26 785 to get 13.50 more credit (total credit 18.10, still naked)

as long as stock stays below 785, very good

if stock climbs up to 784.75, i have to start covering... can i not just buy stock at that point so that position is no longer naked?

i don't want to buy stock now at 710 because there is risk of falling further

rinse and repeat: sell naked OTM CC and just buy stock when it is creeping up to strike

OTOH, i can just buy stock now at 710 and still do the 785 roll (and get my 18.10), but i'm scared of stock falling further

helpmeeeeeeeeeeee!

I’m sure you’ve already considered this, but the only true danger with that plan would be the risk of a gap-up overnight such that your pre-programmed buy order (set to be triggered if SMCI hits, say, $784.75) doesn’t trigger on Day X (not even if AH) but the next day SMCI has already gapped up above there (even in PM). So long as you’re well prepared to handle that capital loss scenario, it seems like a reasonable approach. I’ll leave it to each reader to determine how they assess that risk.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

TY, @adiggs

i have a weekend brainer teaser for you geniuses out there, hope anyone can help!

i am trying to understand naked CC

i have naked 4/26 SMCI CC 920 credit 4.6, stock is currently 710

credit is now 3.1 so obviously this is printing money and i don't need to spend capital reserving the stock since i am 210 OTM

but i changed my mind, i want to roll it down to 4/26 785 to get 13.50 more credit (total credit 18.10, still naked)

as long as stock stays below 785, very good

if stock climbs up to 784.75, i have to start covering... can i not just buy stock at that point so that position is no longer naked?

i don't want to buy stock now at 710 because there is risk of falling further

rinse and repeat: sell naked OTM CC and just buy stock when it is creeping up to strike

OTOH, i can just buy stock now at 710 and still do the 785 roll (and get my 18.10), but i'm scared of stock falling further

helpmeeeeeeeeeeee!

This was my thought process when I was selling 30 day expiration and 20% otm cc on tsla in 2021. If it did shoot up I could just buy the stock. But my error was I ended up selling more and more calls and when they were suddenly ditm I couldn't buy the shares in time. I thought of buying the shares and rolling the calls but I feared if the stock suddenly reversed I would have massively used a lot of margin to baghold underwater shares. Something to think about.

In case it shot up you could buy an otm call and then roll up and out your cc. Would require less cash, but I haven't worked through the numbers, just brainstorming

 

[Jim Holder]

FWIW, dunno if really valid (not enough touch points):

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781852295900369064

 

[Jim Holder]

• Tesla $TSLA last night lowered the starting price for all trims of the Model Y, S, and X by $2,000
• Elon Musk also postponed his trip to India saying "very heavy Tesla obligations require that the visit to India be delayed, but I do very much look forward to visiting later this year"
• Tesla is retiring its current referral program and will be implementing a new version in a couple of months
• Elon also said it "may be possible" for Tesla to launch FSD in China "very soon"

(Credit: Evan)


——

I think I’m finally going to sell half my longs on Monday if we can’t reclaim $152 area.

 

[lrm3red]

• Tesla $TSLA last night lowered the starting price for all trims of the Model Y, S, and X by $2,000
• Elon Musk also postponed his trip to India saying "very heavy Tesla obligations require that the visit to India be delayed, but I do very much look forward to visiting later this year"
• Tesla is retiring its current referral program and will be implementing a new version in a couple of months
• Elon also said it "may be possible" for Tesla to launch FSD in China "very soon"

(Credit: Evan)


——

I think I’m finally going to sell half my longs on Monday if we can’t reclaim $152 area.

Why not just do a synthetic short? Get an ATM -call and a +put at the same Strike? That should help cover losses, with volatility so high the put premium is pricey but so is the credit you are getting for the CC.