Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

If you can ignore the massive put flow, then this may be the OML/bounce everyone's been waiting for (NFA):

 

[thenewguy1979]

Wow the fun started early. In for a cheapo -690P for NVDA and a -136P for TSLA.

Be very wary of the afternoon Macro dump. From the look of QQQ it aint over yet.

 

[Yoona]

Gamma and Vanna for this week seems to favor upside, no? But I think events like earnings can override

yeap, greeks are there to assist when underlying approaches - they can't predict direction unless really tall or in large clusters

earnings are like black swans, we slice through the greek walls like hot knife on butter

 

[intelligator]

another option if there is room is to just sell all the +p and be done with the stress

STO SMCI 5/3 CC 695 $7100 per contract, net $6600 if assigned

i don't care if stock drops coz of 5/24 700 gamma

You'd mentioned that in a previous post, makes sense. However, if I sell the +p i'll be left naked or uncovered -p ... I don't own the underlying. My account options trading level doesn't allow this trade. Rolling this last put spread will be the only way to minimize the loss of closing altogether. What I am scared of is that SP can move either direction quickly. Nonetheless, thanks for sharing this other "fix".

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wow the fun started early. In for a cheapo -690P for NVDA and a -136P for TSLA.

Be very wary of the afternoon Macro dump. From the look of QQQ it aint over yet.

That's the main thing keeping me from thinking this was the bottom this morning. Would have much preferred both a TSLA and macro dump in the morning followed by a rebound.

I still think we got another 4-5% drop in the macro's to come

 

[Jim Holder]

yeap, greeks are there to assist when underlying approaches - they can't predict direction unless really tall or in large clusters

earnings are like black swans, we slice through the greek walls like hot knife on butter

@Yoona What's your read on what market is expecting for ER? Seems tons of puts still flowing in BUT absGEX is leaning upside:

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Does not look strong , volume bigger on drops, so I got out of stock again, with some profit, between $1.20 and 1.55 a piece.
Earningscall will be more important than ever, and Elon should be defending the funding of the Compensation plan, so he possibly will not say what analysts are waiting for, as he always does the opposite of giving clear guidance.

 

[Max Plaid]

Rolled 5x NVDA 5/24 -c900 down to -c800

Macro appears to be fading after a strong start, so take the money while I can...

 

[thenewguy1979]

at least we got the morning nvda pump to near 800 for exit.....

 

[Yoona]

@Yoona What's your read on what market is expecting for ER? Seems tons of puts still flowing in BUT absGEX is leaning upside:

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gamma says 150
chain says 150, with 1σ 128-155
but neither know EM's speech, which is subjective
so earnings is difficult to predict

edit:
market reaction to earnings is probably priced in, hence the gamma; but market reaction is not priced in

 

[BornToFly]

After a 42% sell off in TSLA in 2024, I'm thinking we are more likely to go UP after ER than down. I may close all my CCs for a nice profit later today or tomorrow.

Edit: Although when I close CCs early in the hope of selling again on a pop, I usually lose money....

 

[OptionsGrinder]

gamma says 150
chain says 150, with 1σ 128-155
but neither know EM's speech, which is subjective
so earnings is difficult to predict

But at some level, isn’t it more important what the market wants to do, based on its positioning, versus what Elon will say.. especially since his words are usually twisted or capitalized on to further the interests of the big players in the market? Of course I have no confidence that the stock can get back to 150 anytime soon, so my psychology is definitely being impacted by the negative sentiments right now

 

[john tanglewoo]

After a 42% sell off in TSLA in 2024, I'm thinking we are more likely to go UP after ER than down. I may close all my CCs for a nice profit later today or tomorrow.

Edit: Although when I close CCs early in the hope of selling again on a pop, I usually lose money....

What would make you say this?

 

[tivoboy]

After a 42% sell off in TSLA in 2024, I'm thinking we are more likely to go UP after ER than down. I may close all my CCs for a nice profit later today or tomorrow.

Edit: Although when I close CCs early in the hope of selling again on a pop, I usually lose money....

there is nothing wrong with booking money profits on CC’s.. but I would b hesitant to say that we’ve seen the bottom. YMMV NFA

 

[BornToFly]

What would make you say this?

Just my personal opinion that TSLA is oversold. We know Energy is going to grow a lot this year. CT is ramping. FSD has been driving me around like a Level 5 vehicle all week. And I believe that Tesla vehicle P&D will be growing a lot in 2025 (no chance next Gen vehicle is cancelled).

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

After some consideration I pulled the trigger on 10 spreads +p135/-p125 05/03, paying $2.78. The date allows for some digesting of the earnings call and the same spread for 04/26 is only a few dime cheaper.

Even after the 42% drop I still see more downside, but if it bounces you can thank me.

My potential loss is limited, especially because a loss in premium on the long leg is softened by a loss in premium on the short leg.

 

[Yoona]

But at some level, isn’t it more important what the market wants to do, based on its positioning, versus what Elon will say.. especially since his words are usually twisted or capitalized on to further the interests of the big players in the market? Of course I have no confidence that the stock can get back to 150 anytime soon, so my psychology is definitely being impacted by the negative sentiments right now

i suspect if market doesn't like his speech, you can throw gamma/OI/1σ out the window

just like smci's black swan, no-guidance meant all metrics went to hell and quick 20% afternoon drop; gamma and OI and 1σ and channels and fibs and trend lines and everything technical became useless

 

[Jim Holder]

i suspect if market doesn't like his speech, you can throw gamma/OI/1σ out the window

just like smci's black swan, no-guidance meant all metrics went to hell and quick 20% afternoon drop; gamma and OI and 1σ and channels and fibs and trend lines and everything technical became useless

We HOPE he (or his lieutenants) knows that and can keep things from going off the rails (though we hoped so the last few calls too).

 

[dl003]

But at some level, isn’t it more important what the market wants to do, based on its positioning, versus what Elon will say.. especially since his words are usually twisted or capitalized on to further the interests of the big players in the market? Of course I have no confidence that the stock can get back to 150 anytime soon, so my psychology is definitely being impacted by the negative sentiments right now

Normally I'd agree but this is the chart that tells me it's ready to go either way. If Elon's saying that we're still building the assembly line and we will make whatever ready for prime time first, between the model 2 or robotaxi, then we can bounce. But if he gives any indication that the model 2 is dead, that thought gives me chill.

 

[BornToFly]

We HOPE he (or his lieutenants) knows that and can keep things from going off the rails (though we hoped so the last few calls too).

He has to know that a dropping SP puts his compensation package at risk. A lot of people who gained from his work since 2018 have taken profits. A lot of bag holders are voting now....