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marvinat0rz
Member
That's not what happened when Facebook's lockup period expred. The stock jumped 10% on the same day, since the sell-off from insiders was much smaller than expected. Obviously this meant that the float didn't increase as much as everybody was expecting, but increase in float doesn't necessarily mean a decrease in price. Especially not if the increase in float was expected beforehand. Otherwise it'd be free money, which we all know doesn't happen very often in the stock market
Norse
Active Member
Seems like some people missed that, like the Russian tax free incentives. I have my calls ready, waiting for a PR.
That's not what happened when Facebook's lockup period expred. The stock jumped 10% on the same day, since the sell-off from insiders was much smaller than expected. Obviously this meant that the float didn't increase as much as everybody was expecting, but increase in float doesn't necessarily mean a decrease in price. Especially not if the increase in float was expected beforehand. Otherwise it'd be free money, which we all know doesn't happen very often in the stock market
It is not as simple as shorting on the day of lockup. That is why I clearly wrote end of April, first half of May since Twitter lockup is May 15. That would be easy money if you could just short the day before lockup.
The market is a very sophisticated vehicle and stocks move in anticipation of things. In Facebook's example it was already down 50% leading up to lockup and it went up 10% on lockup expiration, because of a massive sigh of relief that insiders didn't start dumping shares. If FB was up 50% instead of down, then you bet it would have tanked the stock since everybody would have been cashing out.
Every situation is different. SCTY was up like 500% pre-lockup and then tanked 40% in the two weeks leading up to lockup.
I still stand by everything I wrote: keeping all things constant, and increase in float = decrease in share price.
edit: econ 101 - higher supply = lower share price.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Yes, if you leave all other things the same, then increasing float will drop price. But Tesla announcing a secondary to finance gigafactory is not leaving things the same. You are increasing the float, but you are also adding capital and future investment into a profit line and increase in GM for vehicles. Put the two together and depending how big the secondary is the float increase will be outmatched by the increase in valuation from the factory building. But that's the balancing act. Will it go up or not. If Tesla were to increase total amount of stock 10% you go from 20B to 22B in market cap if the share price is the same. So the question does come down to valuation.
I agree- The 'normal' expose of dilution is negative for the per share price of course (as sleepy point out); But I see G-Factory capitalization as a clear exception (or potential exception depending on the arrangement). Clearly clears Tesla of last major hurdle (lots of other hurdles of course) for GenIII, and the market may well conclude it's a capital leverage rather than a stock dilution. Imagine if given the partnership arrangement the second is small, but leverages the investments of others AND still provides Tesla with whole sale cost of batteries. Under those conditions if the stock did go down, I know I would be a buyer for sure. Maybe I'm alone, but I'd bet against it with my $s
Just for fun, I looked at the current price of buying a deep OTM put on TWTR for June. The premiums are super high (as a percentage of stock price). They make Tesla's look cheap in comparison.
I keep waiting for a pull-back to extend my long position, but this stock is just rising relentlessly. Not that that's a problem, but it's not providing much opportunity.
Take a look at this thread http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...rm-Fundamentals-of-Tesla-Motors-(TSLA)/page91
InTheShadows
Active Member
Me too, however I still have a few 170 & 175 weeklies I didn't sell today. I almost sold all of them when we hit 180 but it tapered off instead of a sell off and the support seemed pretty strong so I held most of them. I'm planning on rolling them to feb calls tomorrow.
Tesla site down at the moment.
New pricing? New features? Other changes? Anyone know what's coming?
New pricing? New features? Other changes? Anyone know what's coming?
wishing_for_S
Member
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/23/us-samsung-sdi-idUSBREA0M03O20140123
Interesting...nothing is very clear about this article. What do you think, giga? I think so.
Interesting...nothing is very clear about this article. What do you think, giga? I think so.
I don't think it's the giga-factory. Elon has said a few times now that they were in the process of deciding which state the factory would go in... meaning the factory would be built in the US. Perhaps Tesla will buy some batteries from Samsung in the short term, if their giga-factory is not up by then.
I doubt they'd do any sort of big announcement that way.
Anyway, turns out it was announcing pricing and offering the design studio for China. We already knew pricing in China and the design studio is a nice step forward but nothing new that I know of. Unless someone combs through and finds something curious...
Chickenlittle
Banned
Look at model x. Reflects all wheel drive standard now. Single motor option removed. Of course not new information.
bareyb
Active Member
Son of a gun. My stock is now breaking even again. We got in at 178 about two seconds before the first fire. :redface: I thought this was going to take a lot longer. I hope it keeps going up.
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