Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[glhs272]

Seems like the FUD machine is running at full throttle again today. Surprised at the strength of TSLA at today's close.

 

[bareyb]

I've only seen it mentioned here. I honestly think most people out there are hip to the fact that Tesla is being targeted and have simply decided not to play along. Kind of restores my faith in the human race a little…

 

[Robert.Boston]

Hello Experts,

I need an advice, right now I am holding couple of in the money calls strike @180 Exp March'14 is it better to sell those as soon as the market opens? What do you think about the price swing today?

I'm not sure you got an answer, or that you're still looking for one...

You've got a tricky call to make; I could make the case either way:

Hold: Even though Tesla has given plenty of reasons to believe the Q4 ER will be brilliant, the street hasn't fully priced in the full extent of good news (Supercharger buildout, China expansion, gross margin, sales & order volumes of Model S and Model X, etc.). Hold your calls at least through the earnings call to benefit from the pop in price.

Sell: The street has priced in most of the good news from the Q4 ER, and we're sitting near ATH. After the earnings call, IV of the stock will drop sharply and will likely remain low through the expiry of your March options. And, of course, there's the accelerating erosion of the time value of those calls. So, sell now to take advantage of the high IV.

FWIW, I recently sold-to-close some of my call options, so I guess I believe my "sell" story more than my "hold" story. But you'll have to make that call for yourself.

 

[callnaveen]

Thanks a lot Robert, I sold my March calls and bought june calls of PT @220 and Sep calls of PT @225, I thought thats a safe bet and after buying those i got some extra money in hand from the sell.

Thanks again for your time.

 

[Acmykguy]

Seems like the FUD machine is running at full throttle again today. Surprised at the strength of TSLA at today's close.

There was no strength at the end of the day. In fact weakness. If you look at the chart the price tumbled in the last 20-30 mins

 

[Lump]

I saw this stock chart over at StockTiger Stalking Stocks - Richard Crockett - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

 

[callnaveen]

Hi Lump,

I am a newbie to this, I am having hard time in understanding this chart, can you please explain it in simple words. It is indicating a good sign or bad sign or what exactly it is telling us about the future pattern?

I really appreciate your time.

 

[Lump]

Callnaveen,

Others can analyze charts better then I so I can't help with future predictions especially when we have potentially major fundamental news this week.

For me, the breakout above the ATH is signigicant & needs to hold.
The 200 day moving average bounce if it ever tests it again will be huge buying opportunity, I have been using the 20 day moving average for most of my buying & in last years move & this years run up its worked really well.

If you are new to charting keep it simple.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I'm not a big chartist, but notice that the RSI (which is a general measure of whether a stock is "oversold") was above the upper threshold back in the last run-up in October, but is (barely) in bounds now. That's generally positive, i.e. we shouldn't expect a big sell-off (under the technicals approach).

 

[AlMc]

I'm not a big chartist, but notice that the RSI (which is a general measure of whether a stock is "oversold") was above the upper threshold back in the last run-up in October, but is (barely) in bounds now. That's generally positive, i.e. we shouldn't expect a big sell-off (under the technicals approach).

I am also not a technical chart guy, but if you are using 70/30 we are closing in on overbought but if using 80/20 we are in good shape...correct?

 

[Causalien]

I am also not a technical chart guy, but if you are using 70/30 we are closing in on overbought but if using 80/20 we are in good shape...correct?

Usually RSI wilder type uses 70/30 and Stoch type RSI is 80/20. It also depends on the time period used for windowing. Butmost stick with the default 20 days (4 weeks)

I usually fine tunes rsi time period against historic prices.

 

[AlMc]

Usually RSI wilder type uses 70/30 and Stoch type RSI is 80/20. It also depends on the time period used for windowing. Butmost stick with the default 20 days (4 weeks)

I usually fine tunes rsi time period against historic prices.

Since you obviously understand technical charts/RSIs, how do you read this chart/short term price?

 

[TSLAopt]

This was posted on Macrumors not too long ago. Browsing through the comments, it appears that a good percentage of the Apple early adopter and enthusiast crowd understand what Tesla is about and why it's products are selling well. A large portion of the commenters though still do not understand the company or it's plans.

Tesla has been showing up in lots of Apple related news recently, usually in the context of employees moving from Apple to Tesla. The free media exposure (and sometimes the flame wars it generates) are driving demand for the stock. My wild guess is that this will put increasing pressure on the shorts.

This is a good point I haven't thought of. There are so many new retail AAPL investors (some probably very wealthy people) that will be buying some TSLA stock in their portfolios as AAPL-TSLA news/rumors come out. This extra buying will help squeeze this short bubble in TSLA stock.

 

[InTheShadows]

Usually RSI wilder type uses 70/30 and Stoch type RSI is 80/20. It also depends on the time period used for windowing. Butmost stick with the default 20 days (4 weeks)

I usually fine tunes rsi time period against historic prices.

So you think a 20 day rsi is a bit better than a 14? Or are you referring to the stoch?

What do you think about using the wilder with 2 day and 10 and 90 bounds? I read an article that said that might give better signals. I have it overplayed with the standard 14 say to see how they are comparing to each other.

How do you fine tune against the historic prices?

 

[Ocelot]

Got an email from tesla stating they expect model x deliveries to start in canada q2 of 2015 . Test drive in fall!

 

[Causalien]

AIMc: which chart? Post it.

Theshadows: RSI is a reversal indicator. Play with the time period untilthe 70/30 or the 80/20 level consistently indicates good enough # of points when reversal happens. What constitutes reversal depends on each person cause each person plays different time frames. ex, I do monthlies while most of the people on this forum do weeklies.

 

[Fast Laner]

Short - Term Price Movement Frankfurt 10:00 MEZ
Tesla Motors Inc. | Aktie | A1CX3T | US88160R1014 | Brse Frankfurt

 

[Mario Kadastik]

148 eur is 202.xx usd Well I wouldn't mind TSLA to push over 200 tomorrow considering that today the market is closed...

 

[Fast Laner]

approaching 150 euro in Frankfurt

 

[Causalien]

I don't like this rise due to apple rumour.