Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[sundaymorning]

*sigh*, I should have held my Jan15 300s. Instead I lost 50% and, for the first time since Jan 2011, I don't have a TSLA position.

I'm sorry to hear this ckessel, it can be very frustrating to watch your stock have its "tesla moment" and not have money in the game. A long time ago the same thing happened to me after I sold off all my positions in TSLA, although during that time the stock didn't move up as violently, the event taught me to always save core positions where I would not sell no matter what, even if tesla moved up $35 in one day. The growth story for this company is just too good and the stock movement too unpredictable, the feeling I got after selling all positions in tesla was similar to losing something very close to me, as though I was incomplete and naked without it. Many investors on this forum probably have made similar mistakes and had similar feelings one way or the other because of this stock, but the important lesson here is try to pick out a reentry point and think long term, good luck to you and everyone here.

 

[c041v]

*sigh*, I should have held my Jan15 300s. Instead I lost 50% and, for the first time since Jan 2011, I don't have a TSLA position.

I feel for you, I saw your post over the last few weeks. I have not touched anything since I swapped over for J15/J16's in March and was down nearly 70% at one point, but I'm nearly whole again on my J16's and the J15's have made up some serious ground today.

Anyone have thoughts on how much further we might run? There's still some events on the horizon, but I really, really, really want to learn from my mistakes and take money off the table when we're nearing a top. I'm also in a bit of a conundrum wias my J15's are starting decay, and I don't think that holding on until the J17's come out is really a a good option. I will take this over to the Options thread...

 

[TD1]

Deutsche Bank upgraded Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) from Hold to Buy with a price target of $310.00 (from $222.00).

 

[chickensevil]

Not complaining, but I think we might see ATH today; in which case I will miss out on a multi-bagger. But I can't monitor my position today, so I need to sell quickly.

As far as security goes, I really hope that they take care of this and be very proactive about it. I have a feeling that a hacker could potentially take over a car while it is driving if someone really, really, really wanted to do so and committed vast resources to get a program like this up and running. It would be a PR disaster for TSLA if just one car got hacked/hijacked on the expressway and that hacker caused a crash or worse death. It would be a death blow.

As I recall you have had some very bad calls on the stock as of late, so I would take a win as it is You can't play the what-if game... Obviously if we all knew exactly where the stock was going to peak and valley we would all be uber rich.

I saw a pretty compelling DARPA funded project on this subject, and it is certainly something that will happen sooner or later on cars in general. From what I was gathering it is very expensive to research (you know, cause you would have to buy a 90k vehicle in Tesla's case... and likely more than one of them)... so cost is what seems to be keeping the number of hacks down. I am afraid as this evolves we will see motivated individuals that will hack the devices regardless.

 

[sleepyhead]

As I recall you have had some very bad calls on the stock as of late, so I would take a win as it is You can't play the what-if game... Obviously if we all knew exactly where the stock was going to peak and valley we would all be uber rich.

I saw a pretty compelling DARPA funded project on this subject, and it is certainly something that will happen sooner or later on cars in general. From what I was gathering it is very expensive to research (you know, cause you would have to buy a 90k vehicle in Tesla's case... and likely more than one of them)... so cost is what seems to be keeping the number of hacks down. I am afraid as this evolves we will see motivated individuals that will hack the devices regardless.

Short term weeklies trading is like a jumpshot in basketball. You may hit a hot streak or you may go cold for stretches, or simply win some lose some...

 

[FluxCap]

For my fellow call option holders: as Citizen-T once wisely told me, don't forget to take some profits off the table on a day like today. Given the precarious geopolitical environment, we could easily be dragged back down hard in short order if things in Iraq / Ukraine / Israel take a turn for the worse in the very near future.

Great day for TSLA, and I'm not selling a single share of stock, but just a friendly reminder that today is one of those days it makes sense to smile and enjoy the fruits of your labors.

 

[wallaby]

I'm curious for the technical analysts out there: since we had a fairly big gap (~$8) from prev. close to opening today, do you expect that we'll come back down to $248 or at least $250 before resuming upward?

I've made a pretty penny on my options today but I'm wondering if I should sell soon (next few days) and wait for the gap to fill... (or I could do the conservative thing and not pay too much attention to short term movements and focus on long-term growth, but well... this is the short-term movements thread

 

[sundaymorning]

. I am afraid as this evolves we will see motivated individuals that will hack the devices regardless.

During the time when Chinese fans held an event that hacked into a tesla for the grand prize of $10,000, hackers were successful in taking control of the Tesla's software such as switching on/off windshield wipers, lights or panaramic sunroof; however, owners should not have much to worry about as more serious threats from hackers were unable to take control of the car's speed, brakes or drivetrain hardware. From what I read about the event, the hacking was very minimal and Tesla's software and drivetrain are not connected, does anyone remember reading about this? At any rate, I'm glad to see tesla taking a proactive approach to this event.

 

[Cobos]

They did not get control of the wipers, only the stuff available through the smartphone app. Essentially they logged in through the same interface as the smartphone app without being the correct user for the app.
So if this happened while driving turning off remote access through the screen should completely shut them out. That is at least my take on what I read.

Cobos

 

[Muskol]

For my fellow call option holders: as Citizen-T once wisely told me, don't forget to take some profits off the table on a day like today. Given the precarious geopolitical environment, we could easily be dragged back down hard in short order if things in Iraq / Ukraine / Israel take a turn for the worse in the very near future.

Great day for TSLA, and I'm not selling a single share of stock, but just a friendly reminder that today is one of those days it makes sense to smile and enjoy the fruits of your labors.

Great advice. I have orders to sell half my 2015 options at around what they'll be worth when testing the 265 level. I have a feeling we'll test that level during the usual after lunch run 12:30-2:00.

 

[mibaro2]

For my fellow call option holders: as Citizen-T once wisely told me, don't forget to take some profits off the table on a day like today. Given the precarious geopolitical environment, we could easily be dragged back down hard in short order if things in Iraq / Ukraine / Israel take a turn for the worse in the very near future.

Great day for TSLA, and I'm not selling a single share of stock, but just a friendly reminder that today is one of those days it makes sense to smile and enjoy the fruits of your labors.

Thanks for the reminder. BTW....would you sell any of your Jan 16 leaps ? (with the thought of buying back in during a pullback)

 

[blakegallagher]

today I sold half my options and cleared out all of my margin I'll be very happy if it continues to go up or pulls back

 

[austinEV]

I am all for being conservative and cautious (and taking profits), but this isn't the time yet. We are essentially at the ATH, set last Feb. So, either you think this will be resistance and it will trade sideways or trend down for a while, or you think it will break through resistance and set new ATH's. I feel relatively confident we are seeing a lot of positive things lining up to push the stock up. The market is digesting the very positive disclosures in the last ER, a mini-squeeze, and upgrades. Plus the market seems to be recovering from its latest little freakout. I think a lot of people were looking for a Tesla-style aggressive run up, so I think there is a fair amount of bandwagon traders that will jump in at these levels. I wouldn't worry until 290 or so.

 

[justdoit]

I am all for being conservative and cautious (and taking profits), but this isn't the time yet. We are essentially at the ATH, set last Feb. So, either you think this will be resistance and it will trade sideways or trend down for a while, or you think it will break through resistance and set new ATH's. I feel relatively confident we are seeing a lot of positive things lining up to push the stock up. The market is digesting the very positive disclosures in the last ER, a mini-squeeze, and upgrades. Plus the market seems to be recovering from its latest little freakout. I think a lot of people were looking for a Tesla-style aggressive run up, so I think there is a fair amount of bandwagon traders that will jump in at these levels. I wouldn't worry until 290 or so.

I agree. I'm not getting too conservative yet. Waiting for us to challenge and eventually break through previous ATH. Once we do that, then I might get a little conservative around $270 and 280.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Sold 19% of my stock today. I'm thinking the profits will go into a Model S deposit, and I'll keep the remainder until an opportunity emerges.

I'm thinking that to sell now isn't *wrong* although it may be less than perfect.

 

[Citizen-T]

Taking some profits is not the same as getting conservative, just to state the obvious.

 

[uselesslogin]

I am all for being conservative and cautious (and taking profits), but this isn't the time yet. We are essentially at the ATH, set last Feb. So, either you think this will be resistance and it will trade sideways or trend down for a while, or you think it will break through resistance and set new ATH's. I feel relatively confident we are seeing a lot of positive things lining up to push the stock up. The market is digesting the very positive disclosures in the last ER, a mini-squeeze, and upgrades. Plus the market seems to be recovering from its latest little freakout. I think a lot of people were looking for a Tesla-style aggressive run up, so I think there is a fair amount of bandwagon traders that will jump in at these levels. I wouldn't worry until 290 or so.

I'm with you and don't have plans to reduce until $280-290 myself. I did reduce at $235, however, so I already have dropped a lot of the riskier options I picked up around $190.

 

[FluxCap]

I am all for being conservative and cautious (and taking profits), but this isn't the time yet. We are essentially at the ATH, set last Feb. So, either you think this will be resistance and it will trade sideways or trend down for a while, or you think it will break through resistance and set new ATH's. I feel relatively confident we are seeing a lot of positive things lining up to push the stock up. The market is digesting the very positive disclosures in the last ER, a mini-squeeze, and upgrades. Plus the market seems to be recovering from its latest little freakout. I think a lot of people were looking for a Tesla-style aggressive run up, so I think there is a fair amount of bandwagon traders that will jump in at these levels. I wouldn't worry until 290 or so.

Fair enough, and I hope you snag some gains I will miss with my weeklies and monthlies. I'm not selling my long term position, just short and medium term stuff, given my hypothesis that macro will pull us down sometime this week. I could of course (and probably will be) wrong.

I still think $290 by November is very, very likely and am positioned well for that.

- - - Updated - - -

Taking some profits is not the same as getting conservative, just to state the obvious.

^ What this guy said.

 

[TSLAopt]

Sold 19% of my stock today. I'm thinking the profits will go into a Model S deposit, and I'll keep the remainder until an opportunity emerges.

I'm thinking that to sell now isn't *wrong* although it may be less than perfect.

everyone saying that they're taking some profits now makes me think we have a lot more room to run in the near term...just my gut contrarian instinct that I've come to know over the past few years with TSLA...it's when we have a nice run up and everyone on here seems to be excited saying that they're buying even higher near term strike calls is when we seem to get to a top. We shall see though...

 

[blakegallagher]

Taking some profits is not the same as getting conservative, just to state the obvious.

to illustrate I just took profits but most sane people would still think I am insanely aggressive when it comes to Tesla