Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Cattledog]

While it may not constitute "short-term" investing, Elon Musk stated that Model X is sold out for 2015. According to Elon, Tesla plans on selling 15K to 20K Model X next year. When Tesla announces Drive Assist and AWD on S, 2015 Model S production should sell out in short order. The entire 2015 production (both S and X) could be sold out before Summer 2015.

Easy. If they have, say 25,000 Model X reservations on the books 1/1/2015 (>20K now, averaging50/day now, will be more (double) if there is a reveal this year), Say 10,000 Model S reservations on the books (will be more if AWD Model S comes out before year end), then they'd only need 30,000 reservations in the first half of 2015 to be sold out for the rest of the year. I think Model S+X reservations will average 1,500/week for the first half of 2015, so you got it around mid-May.

 

[Joel]

Easy. If they have, say 25,000 Model X reservations on the books 1/1/2015 (>20K now, averaging50/day now, will be more (double) if there is a reveal this year), Say 10,000 Model S reservations on the books (will be more if AWD Model S comes out before year end), then they'd only need 30,000 reservations in the first half of 2015 to be sold out for the rest of the year. I think Model S+X reservations will average 1,500/week for the first half of 2015, so you got it around mid-May.

Cattledog - you've been in the Tesla community too long. You should know better. I speak in Tesla Time: Summer, Fall, Winter, "early next year," "late this year." :smile:

By "mid-May" do you mean "early next year?" :smile:

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Has anyone looked into what battery manufacturers Tesla might be working with to expand production beyond 100,000? I think I recall Elon mentioning that Panasonic was increasing production to allow for enough cells for somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 vehicles in 2015. It seems likely Tesla is currently seeing demand for at least 50,000 Model S, and Tesla will have a backlog of 25,000 reservations for the Model X by the end of December 2014. With all the deliveries and the Supercharger expansion in Asia, Europe, and the USA, 60,000 vehicles in 2015 seems very conservative figure.

 

[Cattledog]

Yes. They'll have about 35,000 reservations on the books by 1/1/2015 and I think they'll average 1,500 reservations/week in the first half of next year. So by mid-May they'll already have had 65,000 reservations to fill in 2015 and that will be their approximate production in 2015.

If 1,500/week keeps up for the remainder of 2015, they'll have a backlog of around 45,000 cars. My hope is they'll exit 2015 with a run rate around 2,000 cars/week. Even if they stay at a reservation rate of 1,500/week in 2016, essentially producing 500 more cars per week than they are reserving, it would take more than a year and a half to have essentially no wait time between reservation and production start. That takes you to mid-2017, and by that time they'll have reservations on 50,000+ Model 3s. Looks like they better order some take-out at the factory.

I happen to think they'll be reserving at over 2,000 cars/week exiting 2015, which means they'll need to ramp production more to keep wait times reasonable (at some point an unreasonable wait time will dampen reservations).

I guess I'm on Tesla Savings Time.

 

[Joel]

Yes. They'll have about 35,000 reservations on the books by 1/1/2015 and I think they'll average 1,500 reservations/week in the first half of next year. So by mid-May they'll already have had 65,000 reservations to fill in 2015 and that will be their approximate production in 2015.

If 1,500/week keeps up for the remainder of 2015, they'll have a backlog of around 45,000 cars. My hope is they'll exit 2015 with a run rate around 2,000 cars/week. Even if they stay at a reservation rate of 1,500/week in 2016, essentially producing 500 more cars per week than they are reserving, it would take more than a year and a half to have essentially no wait time between reservation and production start. That takes you to mid-2017, and by that time they'll have reservations on 50,000+ Model 3s. Looks like they better order some take-out at the factory.

I happen to think they'll be reserving at over 2,000 cars/week exiting 2015, which means they'll need to ramp production more to keep wait times reasonable (at some point an unreasonable wait time will dampen reservations).

I guess I'm on Tesla Savings Time.

Well said.

 

[maoing]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/tesla-ceo-sees-fully-autonomous-

Elon Musk interviewed with WSJ. A lot of interesting stuff......
But I don't have access to the full edition. Who can help do that?

 

[chickensevil]

Has anyone looked into what battery manufacturers Tesla might be working with to expand production beyond 100,000? I think I recall Elon mentioning that Panasonic was increasing production to allow for enough cells for somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 vehicles in 2015. It seems likely Tesla is currently seeing demand for at least 50,000 Model S, and Tesla will have a backlog of 25,000 reservations for the Model X by the end of December 2014. With all the deliveries and the Supercharger expansion in Asia, Europe, and the USA, 60,000 vehicles in 2015 seems very conservative figure.

Most likely just Panasonic. They said in the last ER that Panasonic is ramping up their production to support at least 150k and if they really pushed they could get 200k from them but most likely it will be around 150k and all from Panasonic. This lines up to around 15GW of batteries which happens to be exactly what they expect from Panasonic even after the factory goes live.

Most likely with the cell format change the MS and MX will continue to source from Panasonic and the M3 will come from the gigafactory itself.

This works out timing/ramping wise to something like this:

2014: 35k
2015: 60-75k
2016: 125-150k
2017: 175k-200k (150k MS and MX with only getting about 25k to 50k of the M3 first year)
2018: 275-300k
2019: 350-400k
2020: 500k

Based on Elons comments today, they could potentially hit 500k before 2020 so take these numbers as somewhat conservative compared to him.

- - - Updated - - -

http://online.wsj.com/articles/tesla-ceo-sees-fully-autonomous-

Elon Musk interviewed with WSJ. A lot of interesting stuff......
But I don't have access to the full edition. Who can help do that?

Yeah if you google search the article title you should be able to get it through a google link. But try this one:

Tesla CEO Sees Fully Autonomous Car Ready in Five or Six Years - WSJ

(Sorry on my phone right now but copied out the text for this one just in case)

Tesla Motors Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said the technology to make a fully autonomous car will be ready in five or six years, and the result will be vehicles far less likely to harm occupants and others on the road.
"They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person [at the wheel] in a six-year time frame," Mr. Musk said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. Once the technology is available, it likely would take several more years, however, to work out the regulatory impediments, he said.
Palo Alto, Calif.-based Tesla is working on its own autonomous driving technology for its electric vehicles in addition to talking with auto suppliers. He said he expects more suppliers of autonomous vehicle parts to emerge in coming years.
"Tesla is going to do quite a bit of development itself," he said. He didn't mention any development partners by name.
Mr. Musk said "machine vision," or the ability for a computer to quickly recognize objects, is the biggest technological impediment to fully implementing the technology.
Determining what an entire object might be when only a piece of it is visible by camera or radar is a key issue for the technology to determine the correct course of action for a vehicle. "It's kind of scary: what's going to become of us humans," he joked.
In addition to his forecast about autonomous vehicles, he said his company expects to start generating strong "free cash flow beginning in the third quarter of 2015" and could pay for the construction of its planned battery factory without additional borrowing. Tesla raised $2.3 billion earlier this year through a convertible bond offering.
Tesla plans to build advanced batteries at a so-called gigafactory that could cost up to $5 billion, along with partner Panasonic Corp., in an industrial park 15 miles east of Reno, Nev.
Much of the free cash flow should come next year as Tesla ramps up production of its Model X sport utility vehicle, which is expected to begin deliveries early next year. Mr. Musk has told Fox Business that he expected to sell 15,000 next year or 20,000 if "things go especially well."
Mr. Musk also said demand for the company's current, $71,000 and up Model S isn't a problem. "We have a waiting list, but not intentionally."
He also said the company needed to build more service centers before it ramps up sales further.
Tesla isn't working on vehicles beyond the Model X and a planned lower-cost sedan called the Model 3, but he said that "significant" product news is in the works.
When asked how the broader auto industry is progressing on developing a market for electric vehicles, he said "we're behind."
"The big car companies have been a lot slower than I thought," he said.

 

[maoing]

Thanks chickensevil. Here is the highlights besides autonomous driving.


In addition to his forecast about autonomous vehicles, he said his company expects to start generating strong "free cash flow beginning in the third quarter of 2015" and could pay for the construction of its planned battery factory without additional borrowing. Tesla raised $2.3 billion earlier this year through a convertible bond offering.

Tesla plans to build advanced batteries at a so-called gigafactory that could cost up to $5 billion, along with partner Panasonic Corp., in an industrial park 15 miles east of Reno, Nev.

Much of the free cash flow should come next year as Tesla ramps up production of its Model X sport utility vehicle, which is expected to begin deliveries early next year. Mr. Musk has told Fox Business that he expected to sell 15,000 next year or 20,000 if "things go especially well."

Mr. Musk also said demand for the company's current, $71,000 and up Model S isn't a problem. "We have a waiting list, but not intentionally."

He also said the company needed to build more service centers before it ramps up sales further.

Tesla isn't working on vehicles beyond the Model X and a planned lower-cost sedan called the Model 3, but he said that "significant" product news is in the works.

When asked how the broader auto industry is progressing on developing a market for electric vehicles, he said "we're behind."
"The big car companies have been a lot slower than I thought," he said.

 

[chickensevil]

Just to add some quick personal commentary to the article.

It is really cool that even though the other companies are rivals and potential sales losses he still views the whole thing like one family. "We're behind" says a pot to me about how he views this. Not that this is news to anyone here but just continues to amaze me every time I hear him talk about it like Tesla needs to do more not just "the other guys"

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Good morning, everyone!
what a beatiful morning with all these news! Thanks to StreetInsider. The interview with Elon was fantastic. Thanks DaveT for providing the video! great.
I must say, I like Liz Claman. She has kind of a dominant character - and I think Elon really enjoyed it, too.:biggrin:
Liz: "...this is, by the way, my favorite Tesla color...this sparkly [ah? ok], navy-deep blue..." Hey, Liz, it's my favorite color as well.:biggrin:

Ok, after all these good news Elon has announcend, we should be expecting some upgrades soon, gentlemen!

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Pacific Crest Securities - PT $316

...and here we go !
Pacific Crest Securities' "outperform" w/ PT $316. Ok, Brad Erickson just confirmed (obviously after Elon's interview) his previous view. Not bad for the moment.

 

[Renaud]

Good Morning!
Thanks Derek for the info!

Last few days were quite interesting, and learnt a lot from it (well, I hope I did actually): when hovering around ATH for too long with EM saying price is kind of high, when no reaction to great news like GF (though it should have been a great catalyst), means a top might have been reached...Lost a bit that day when it went down, but managed to add a few shares at 255, bought a OTM call that I sold again yesterday at the end of the day with a nice profit (this time )

I wasted some time this morning reading the comments on SA on that last article of LT (By the way, doesn't he need a few sessions at a good practician: considering his articles and tweets about Tesla and being so wrong for so long, might be a sign that this could be pathologic)
As for the comments themselves, shorts must be desperates.

Thanks for all those who wrote down here the most important bits and pieces of EM interviews! For the long term, this is again amazing.
For the short term, we feel again very bullish? feeling driven by EM's latest statements, by J. Yellen's speech, possible PT upgrades?
But really, "the drop", that was it? I know losing 10% in a day is painful, but is that it? And now back to normal?

Something else: one of the arguments of the shorts, as usual, is demand for MS. There was a couple years ago an article whose main idea was that if 1% of the 1% would buy MS, that would be enough demand. Can anybody remember this?

Thanks and a great day to all of you!

 

[twinklejet]

is that a reiteration? I'm seeing that pacific crest intiated that price target in the beginning of August, then followed up with a note for "decreased earnings forecast" at the end of August and Brad lowered his EPS estimates from 1.30 to 1.17, but with the same price target... so what's the change today? I'm seeing the PT is the same... is he just restating his PT?

his last note: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000306206

 

[Derek Vinyard]

China's Minister of Industry and IT about Tesla Motors.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

China Suggests Tesla Speed Up Charging Facility Construction
2014-09-18 02:25:45.399 GMT


By Huang Zhe
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Tesla would better satisfy Chinese
customers if it could enhance cooperation with Chinese cos. and
accelerate construction of charging facilities, Miao Wei,
China’s Minister of Industry and Information Technology, says
during a Sept. 16 meeting with Tesla VP Jerome Guillen.
* Miao says China expects Tesla to strengthen technology
development and enhance product safety, according to
statement on ministry’s website

and here's the statement on the ministry's website. Anyone speaking/reading chinese?

- - - Updated - - -

is that a reiteration? I'm seeing that pacific crest intiated that price target in the beginning of August, then followed up with a note for "decreased earnings forecast" at the end of August and Brad lowered his EPS estimates from 1.30 to 1.17, but with the same price target... so what's the change today? I'm seeing the PT is the same... is he just restating his PT?

his last note: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000306206

yes, it is a reiteration. Therefore I wrote that he is confirming his view. Have a look at his recent history of recommendations.

 

[twinklejet]

is it just me or does he always reiterate whenever the price is around 260 lol.

and other than "safety aspect of electric vehicles is very important", the rest of the article is too small & squashed for me to read :/

 

[Derek Vinyard]

I see your point. No, still no detailed explanation/analyst view published on BBG.

- - - Updated - - -

is it just me or does he always reiterate whenever the price is around 260 lol.

and other than "safety aspect of electric vehicles is very important", the rest of the article is too small & squashed for me to read :/

Thanks.
Yes, unfortunately BBG doesn't increase the page when exporting to one's email address. Sorry.

 

[Causalien]

China's Minister of Industry and IT about Tesla Motors.



and here's the statement on the ministry's website. Anyone speaking/reading chinese?

- - - Updated - - -



yes, it is a reiteration. Therefore I wrote that he is confirming his view. Have a look at his recent history of recommendations.

The translation missed quite a bit.

The emphasis is placed on product safety. Charging tech seems to be just a passing mention. Here was a few lines about China wanting Tesla to speed up their understanding of chinese law in order to better service its customers.

*edit: Just browsed through some Chinese media. Apparently, the market is abuzz with the charging tech news because it will bring about increased orders for Supercharger parts. That's the part which will boost economies while the rest are laws and service improvements which are basically costs and liabilities.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Thanks, Causalien! and here's the weird Google translation from StreetInsider:

Below is statement from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA). The statement was translated by Google. The original text is here.

"September 16, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei met with Jerome Guillen Tesla's senior vice president of global development on the Chinese electric vehicle industry related policies, electric vehicle technology, standards and supporting facilities, etc. exchange. 　　
Miao Wei pointed out that safety-critical electric vehicles, and we are highly concerned and hope Tesla company increased R&D efforts to further enhance product safety, ensure consumer safety; Tesla company if they can strengthen exchanges and cooperation between Chinese enterprises to accelerate the charging facilities will better meet the needs of Chinese users. Gurion said that Tesla will strengthen exchanges and cooperation with Chinese enterprises, deepen their understanding of China's relevant laws, regulations and policies to better serve Chinese customers.

 

[chickensevil]

<prediction>

Dear Sweet Baby Jesus, I hope you are right

 

[Causalien]

Thanks, Causalien! and here's the weird Google translation from StreetInsider:

Yeah, I am starting to see the language barrier being a huge problem between western world and China. The google translation can be interpreted in several ways. The real interepretation should focus on the government urging Tesla's understanding of Chinese law. Which means that Tesla's progress in China is being held back by the lack of understanding of Chinese law and China is a bit impatient for them to get on with deployment.

The other nuances in the article is the product safety part. Apparently the Chinese have no idea that Tesla is almost the safest vehicle out there. A fail from Tesla China's marketing department. Which is probably a result of several things. As Amercan cars weren't really associated with safety and the priority being given to give the Chinese people "face" and pride.