Totally agree but you know the market. It will dissect every word or absence or a word in the statement and interpret it (possibly incorrectly). I think the 'negative winds/positive winds' thought brought up by Steve G is accurate. Until we get some positive macro news or positive TM specific news it is anybody's guess which way TSLA goes from what is now $200.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Totally agree but you know the market. It will dissect every word or absence or a word in the statement and interpret it (possibly incorrectly). I think the 'negative winds/positive winds' thought brought up by Steve G is accurate. Until we get some positive macro news or positive TM specific news it is anybody's guess which way TSLA goes from what is now $200.
Probably will be going back to the supplier or used as a demo in store. You know --when they show you all the parts and stuff.
Well then... 200 was broken. Interesting times.
Last edited:
That has been discussed on a couple of the P85D delivery threads. several people have expressed their willingness to 'buy' them as slightly used and installed in their 1-2 year old cars.
Nah... probably not low enough. The first time he said it was in August of last year and it was around $160 at the time. Might need to get down to $120 until he's happy. :biggrin:
I think this morning's dip to $195 will be the intra-day low and we'll bounce back and close around $203. Basically, another small change day (less than 1%) but with large intraday swings. I "love" morning dips/bounces within the first 2 hours of trading, plays with your mind. We're back at $202 now.
I bought another $20K worth at $195.66. Usually whatever I do is the exact wrong thing. I'm more surprised than anyone at my, at least momentary, good luck!
Muskol
Member
NigelM
Recovering Member
Remedial work to exchange out the seats is an obligation made in 4Q2014 so if it's significant I'd expect Tesla to make a reserve to cover the costs that will be incurred in 1Q2015. The bigger question is "how much?" as we don't know for certain how many cars were affected.
Right, but that (probably) minor income will be booked in Q1 or Q2 next year, no impact on 2014.
I'm probably the least sophisticated investor on this thread, and perhaps some of what I want to say has been anticipated by others here in language too cryptic for me to understand, but here goes in language I can.
I've been puzzled by the market's reaction to the fall in oil prices, not just because we are most concerned about an electric car and little of its "fuel" is produced by oil in this country. Why? From a macroeconomic standpoint falling energy prices are good for the overall economy for obvious reasons, but the market is not a perfect reflection of the overall economy. Despite oil being a lessor share of our energy demands over the last year or so, as cars and industry have become more efficient, any actual damage or stimulus to lower prices should be even less than in previous years. So what's going on?
Traditional investors favor oil stocks and speculative plays in fracking technology. The latter is under assault by Saudi Arabia, as well as its concern about Iran and Russia. Probably most of us on this thread believe in the long run Big Oil is in trouble for the right reasons justifying our hope for a disruptive change in the world's energy usage. I know for a fact because of one academic source now in the industry, they are very, very good at long range planning. My greatest hope is from a side comment by someone on this thread to the effect that Saudi Arabia is already threatened by the implications of climate change and so must liquidate its "inventory" while it can.
Traditional investors have always considered oil safe. Now it isn't, so they are selling. (I don't know this but it is probably happening.) And, I suspect they have a lot of holdings which weigh heavily on the market. So they are selling and then because the market nosedives, everyone else is affected, especially for what more traditional investors consider speculative stocks like Tesla.
Then we have the current Fed deliberations. I really hope it doesn't shift gears, even on the "considerable time" issue concerning rates. If it does, the market will tank some more, and that may explain investor's diffidence now.
So not to worry, but I do; it is in my nature.
Rebuttals?
I've been puzzled by the market's reaction to the fall in oil prices, not just because we are most concerned about an electric car and little of its "fuel" is produced by oil in this country. Why? From a macroeconomic standpoint falling energy prices are good for the overall economy for obvious reasons, but the market is not a perfect reflection of the overall economy. Despite oil being a lessor share of our energy demands over the last year or so, as cars and industry have become more efficient, any actual damage or stimulus to lower prices should be even less than in previous years. So what's going on?
Traditional investors favor oil stocks and speculative plays in fracking technology. The latter is under assault by Saudi Arabia, as well as its concern about Iran and Russia. Probably most of us on this thread believe in the long run Big Oil is in trouble for the right reasons justifying our hope for a disruptive change in the world's energy usage. I know for a fact because of one academic source now in the industry, they are very, very good at long range planning. My greatest hope is from a side comment by someone on this thread to the effect that Saudi Arabia is already threatened by the implications of climate change and so must liquidate its "inventory" while it can.
Traditional investors have always considered oil safe. Now it isn't, so they are selling. (I don't know this but it is probably happening.) And, I suspect they have a lot of holdings which weigh heavily on the market. So they are selling and then because the market nosedives, everyone else is affected, especially for what more traditional investors consider speculative stocks like Tesla.
Then we have the current Fed deliberations. I really hope it doesn't shift gears, even on the "considerable time" issue concerning rates. If it does, the market will tank some more, and that may explain investor's diffidence now.
So not to worry, but I do; it is in my nature.
Rebuttals?
Last edited:
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Not a rebuttal, but I think TSLA's slide is less about the price of oil per-se, and more about concerns that the world's economy is slowing down (see Japan, China, EU).
On the one hand, yes, lower oil prices act like a stimulus (some say it's like a tax cut), and even though oil-related sectors are negatively affected, the rest of the global economy should be better off (again, especially Japan, China and EU, who are big oil importers, and also U.S., who has a huge economy reliant on oil). On the other hand, though, it is possible that low oil prices are actually caused by the slowing economy. As I understand it, there is some concern that low oil prices may not be low enough, or may not percolate fast enough, to counteract the negative momentum of the global economy, which would mean another recession is possible. Coupled with uncertainty about the Fed, and possibly about how Russia might react if its economy collapses, you get a broad-based sell-off. Everyone is down since Dec 1st: AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, NFLX, etc. None of those is linked to oil, but they are sensitive to the general macro context.
TSLA, being its volatile self we all know and love, is down more than most, but I think it's all macro. In other words, I think I was wrong a while ago when I said that it had internal reasons to drop. Flux was right all along.
Thanks for your thoughts and for participating in the forums. Understanding the ways in which macroeconomic forces and changes play out in global markets is not a simple subject, because there are so many interrelated pieces, but we do enjoy discussing this in the thread in my signature below. If you have a basic understanding of macroeconomics and microeconomics as well as how securities markets work, there are a number of useful sources of information that cut through the clutter (though most of them are not free and are in fact fairly expensive). Note that most of what you read / see in the mainstream media is either a) propaganda or b) reporting well after the fact (too late) to be of use in trading. If you are not actively trading though, it may be of less interest and you may wish to "buy and hold."
Anyway, I don't have a crystal ball, but right now the market is worried that various forces acting on a global scale (deflation and central bank reactions to it, weak global demand, and potential fallout from oil company bankruptcies / defaults on debt) could cause cascading negative effects on US equities, because the "recovery" in the US has been primarily led by a boom in US oil firm investment and spending. When they layoff workers / default on debt / go bankrupt, look out below US GDP.
Deflationary pressure and chaos in global markets mean investors in other countries are retreating even more to the dollar, which causes $USD deflation, which makes everyone hoard cash, which shuts down investment, which stifles growth, which eventually reaches the equity markets and causes stocks to drop. Just one current thesis.
I'm rambling but if you wish to discuss more perhaps chat in the thread in my signature.
As far as TSLA, I'm still planning to hold my core TSLA shares through volume production of the Model III personally, and though I'm opportunistic, I am not buying short-term bets (options) on TSLA yet.
I am heavily weighted towards betting on further decreases in crude oil prices at the moment.
I agree its all macro.
Regarding your worries about the international outlook there are some caveats. Japan has a chance to recover if the recent Abe election leads to less concern about their truly outstanding debt and more stimulus. If I remember correctly, their debt is in their own currency at least. If you follow Krugman, Europe's problems are self-inflicted and there is little hope for change on the part of the Germans. Obama could really do some good if he gave Putin an out, which I suspect is being considered although today's news of more sanctions is in the wrong direction.
If you will allow me to put on my Soviet expert hat, there is wisdom in the following: An old Russian proverb says if you pick a fight with a bear, you must be prepared to kill it. Europe and the U.S. made a terrible mistake by expanding NATO without making Russia a part of it. Even Obama was aggressive in pushing the recent Ukrainian revolution. Also instructive is an old quotation from Kennan: "There are two ways to get someone to go through a door. One is by opening it."
I use Soviet expert deliberately. My Thai-born wife refers to me as "an extinguished professor."
InTheShadows
Active Member
It wouldn't surprise me if there is a hard push by the shorts at close to push it below 200 for the close.
The current narrative seems to be that falling demand and increasing supply is responsible for the oil price collapse. However global demand between 2013 and 2014 has actually increased by 0.74 % (data from the International Energy Agency). Also it is 3.6% higher than average demand over the last 5 years (2009-2013).
On the supply side even though oil production in North America increased by 8.8% from 2013 to 2014 and 17.7% over the last two years (2012-2014), total global production between 2012 and 2013 only increased by 0.55%.
Therefore the fracking revolution in North America has not impacted global production significantly.
If its not supply and demand the rise in the US-dollar which directly impacts US oil prices which are measured in US-dollar is the cause. Generally it is believed that the US will tighten in 2015 and thus the dollar has rallied. Also a lot of people bet on rising oil prices coming in 2014, because they were certain that the US-economy would recover thus increasing demand significantly. This has not happened, as US oil demand for 2014 is only up about 1%.
If the Fed starts tightening or decreasing any form of stimulus further, the U.S. economy will come crashing down to earth as interest rates spike. This will probably not happen and instead the Fed will stop the fall by starting QE4 at the end of 2015 or early 2016. Therefore the oil prices falling will be temporary as the US dollar is weakened by QE4.
Regarding Tesla, it has lots of internal problems: Lack of range, long charging times, huge capital investments pointing to further dilution and delays of Model X and probably Model 3. Also the stock was enormously overvalued and hyped up, even Musk head with starting to spin. A correction of 50% in this environment, especially if the FED continues with its tightening talk, is not much at all.
(my bolding)
Porc, if you have a case to make that Tesla was enormously overvalued, please make it, but just saying so doesn't make it so. I don't think anyone here wants to put on blinders, but we do look for facts and reasoning behind claims, particularly ones as strong as "the stock was enormously overvalued."
As to Elon's comments... I assume you are referring to his comments late summer when the stock was trading around $290? If that's the case, you may want to listen to the full answer he gave to Phil Lebeau of CNBC (unfortunately often selectively edited). My recollection is that Musk said he thought long term investors at that price would do well but short-term price movements were less certain.
Over the next year I believe Teslas stock price will be under pressure, especially when the Fed continues with its tightening talk (and actions). These Fed actions will not only collapse the oil market but also the US-stock market, overvalued momentum stocks will be under particular pressure.
Due to the fact that the Fed cant tighten without interest rates spiking and the US-stock market, banks and the government itself going belly up, the FED will eventually be forced to reverse course and start QE4. This will lead to oil price spiking up again and the US stock market recovering at least in dollar terms (versus real purchasing power).
For Tesla this means that until the FED reverses course it will be under enormous pressure. Internally as I have said I see many challenges that need to be overcome and I see the stock itself coming off extreme highs. Therefore a 50% correction is not much at all.
No I am not an BMW employee, that logic would mean that everybody expecting falling prices for the medium term is a BMW employee
.
How about addressing my oil and Tesla arguments made in this and the above post.
Due to the fact that the Fed cant tighten without interest rates spiking and the US-stock market, banks and the government itself going belly up, the FED will eventually be forced to reverse course and start QE4. This will lead to oil price spiking up again and the US stock market recovering at least in dollar terms (versus real purchasing power).
For Tesla this means that until the FED reverses course it will be under enormous pressure. Internally as I have said I see many challenges that need to be overcome and I see the stock itself coming off extreme highs. Therefore a 50% correction is not much at all.
No I am not an BMW employee, that logic would mean that everybody expecting falling prices for the medium term is a BMW employee
. How about addressing my oil and Tesla arguments made in this and the above post.
Last edited by a moderator:
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked