Rising transmission costs is a pretty good argument for residential solar and storage (aka distributed solar). Peaker plants/battery storage has always been needed only now they will run at nighttime, not day.
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Rising transmission costs is a pretty good argument for residential solar and storage (aka distributed solar). Peaker plants/battery storage has always been needed only now they will run at nighttime, not day.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Ok, guys, gals, and transgenderds:
The core issue is that some shareholders here are concerned about SolarCity's financials. We need people to prepare good whitepapers on how SolarCity works, what can go right, what can go wrong, and how this could affect Tesla in the event of a merger.
What I believe we need is someone who can endure the minute details. A person with Asberger's who unraveled the mysteries of Credit Default Swaps back in teh last decade, because they were willing to go though all the papers in exhautive detail. Is there anyone here who is (1) A financial wizard and (2) Has the weird wherewithall to distill all this confusion to somehting explainable?
The core issue is that some shareholders here are concerned about SolarCity's financials. We need people to prepare good whitepapers on how SolarCity works, what can go right, what can go wrong, and how this could affect Tesla in the event of a merger.
What I believe we need is someone who can endure the minute details. A person with Asberger's who unraveled the mysteries of Credit Default Swaps back in teh last decade, because they were willing to go though all the papers in exhautive detail. Is there anyone here who is (1) A financial wizard and (2) Has the weird wherewithall to distill all this confusion to somehting explainable?
Ha, from my research this is classic traditional EEI monopoly utility smokescreen talking points(not sure if you are in that business or not) but this is their agreed upon national argument strategy.
However, the current data (including Solarcity's own sponsors reports)supports net metering as a net benefit to all grid users regardless of having solar or not. That across the 11 values rooftop solar brings to the grid, the monitary value is higher the retail (specifically reference Nevada here).
If you can provide credible data that suggests otherwise, I like to read it.
Yes it is. My original post was a reaction to someone who thought 1.7%/y escalator cost increase for Solarcity PPA was way too high. It isn't. Delivered energy costs keep rising, and indeed that means rooftop solar energy (through Solarcity or not) usually makes sense.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Due diligence. Sounds like we're the freaking Pony Express or about to rob a God damned stage coach. Let's just get the damn thing done and be done with it. Bigger things are a-coming.
Sounds right to me. Or let's use a really conservative scenario with half the P/E ratio, that would be $3 trillion. Not bad.
And yet some people still don't like this merger that lays the foundation for this market cap!? Beats me.
Perfectlogic
Member
Sure the service does offer some value if they can get it at a very low cost, but it would have to be so low that the guy buying the powerwall will never earn his money back as the product can't compete with the powerpack on price. So the use case for the powerwall is really only as a backup system incase of a blackout or the rare oddball wanting to pay dearly to go off grid
Thst is a true argument with respect to including aggregated solar vs utility level solar+solar in the comparison, but it's still about meeting peak demand in specific locations within specific communities/parts of a city.
Whether it be nat gas or utility level solar+storage(such as Kuaui) the question is, is it cheaper to develop and build nat gas or utility level solar+storage or is cheaper to buy from an aggregator of residential solar+storage?
Utility level solar+storage still takes up a large footprint and would need to utilize transmission and distribution system like a nat gas peaker would.
Aggregated rooftop solar is already at the place of need or very close to it and the development and installation is a non cost to the utiltiy, essentially the are buying energy and infrastructure as a service from rooftop aggregator. Is this ultimately cheaper then both utility level solar and nat gas to meet the demand response and other grid services required for a specific area on the grid?
As far as my research takes me, this kind of deliberation is what California is trying to figure out right now with respect to allowing utilities to purchase infrastructure as service (from aggregators) instead of having to develop it themselves in order to get the guarenteed rate of return commissions bestow upon public utilties.
Perfectlogic
Member
So Solar City is saying that they are providing value for utilities? Well guess that settles it. If residential solar really was cheaper than a grid model, logically you would be able to go off grid cheaper than being a utility customer, this is not the case, going off grid would be extremely expensive which is why hardly anyone is doing it. Residential solar is only alive because they recieve free service from the grid with net metering.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
[Due diligence. Sounds like we're the freaking Pony Express or about to rob a God damned stage coach. Let's just get the damn thing done and be done with it. Bigger things are a-coming.[/QUOTE]
This is how I feel. Well said.
This is how I feel. Well said.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Like I said before : there's no "good" nor "bad" time for an acquisition. There's only a "right" time which happens to be right now.
Let's see, as long as the cost is less than an NG peaker or their own storage solution, that should be good for the utility. What is very low? 10c/kWh? 20c? Over 10 years, what % of a powerwall cost can one recover from peaker services? The powerpack pricing is available publicly on Tesla's website and it is a lot more than 250/kWh.
Perfectlogic
Member
I can't find their powerpack price, probably because I get redirected to the danish site. I just remember when they first showed the 2 products the powerpack was priced at $250/kwh. If Tesla includes install surely the price will be higher but so will the powerwall price. I am curious as to what price is listed now, but it seems very unlikely that the wall will ever be able to compete with the pack due to scale just like what will be the case for solar installations.
Ulmo
Active Member
Just because I do or don't like debating it doesn't mean it is or isn't good or bad for the company, its customers, or its shareholders. The issue has legitimately come up, therefore it gets discussed.
One could argue that there is a case to be made that not worrying about where you get the energy is what got us into this mess in the first place, and worrying about where you get the energy is what made this company possible in the first place. Of course, that is what its CEO is currently claiming. And I agree with him.
Now, we get to discuss how much that affects what kind of decisions it will make in the particulars. I'm not certain that in a competitive marketplace it makes sense to remove the competition if you're going to get in bed with someone who is dubious. My uncertainty is fueled by the dual facts that I am given voting rights in it and I don't have all the information.
Having said that, a completely legitimate thing for the moderators of this forum to do would be to break out the SCTY acquisition investment discussion into its own SCTY acquisition investment thread. Said moderator would have to work overtime to move all the messages there for a couple months though. And, there would be lots of topics that cover both that and the main company. Have fun.
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