Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Jayjs20]

The market couldn't care less what about Tesla was announcing, only that it was announcing -something-. The SP reaction was as textbook as it could get.

Well, anyways, that was fun. I missed out on almost all of it, but I hope everyone else had fun and hopefully sold at 228. Now, to wait for the shorts to hammer it back down to 223 so i can buy back in. We all know they're waiting in the shadows, waiting for the hype to die down.

 

[Drivin]

Agreed. Two bullet points that will resonate outside our Tesla bubble.
Quickest production car in the world.
.

No.
It is the quickest accelerating production car in the world up to a certain speed.
Plenty of cars go quicker to 160, 170, 180 MPH, etc.

Edit by Moderator: Production cars?

 

[AlMc]

Too much demand !

I hope you are correct.........

 

[larmor]

Cap raise:

"While the P100D Ludicrous is obviously an expensive vehicle, we want to emphasize that every sale helps pay for the smaller and much more affordable Tesla Model 3 that is in development. Without customers willing to buy the expensive Model S and X, we would be unable to fund the smaller, more affordable Model 3 development."

 

[racer26]

They really are demand lever central of late.

This one is obvious to me though. A bunch of the earliest MS's (owned by early adopters, and people who want the best performance at whatever cost) are reaching the end of their lease period. Those owners were probably some of the most Osborned by knowing the P100D was coming, especially since Elon specifically suggested they sit out the P90DL round of upgrades. A few weeks ago we had the reintroduction of the S60, and last week the trial of 24mo leasing to capture the budget limited market as best they can without completely screwing margins. Now we have the P100D to capture the high end buyer that wants the best car money can buy, which has great margins.

We knew that 2H16 was going to need big demand to make guidance, and the pulling of all the levers seems to indicate Tesla is confident in the factory's ability to keep up (though the bears would say Tesla is frantically pulling demand levers because of a collapse).

This and AP 2.0 are the two big levers that we knew about to tie demand over until Fremont starts churning out as many Truck, Train, and Boatloads of Model 3s as the world can handle (at which point S/X demand is far less important to the company's longevity, some portion of buyers want that class of car and will buy it, but once it stops being Tesla's sole breadwinner, things should be more stable).

 

[JRP3]

Why do you believe that?

For the 100 kWh battery pack, Tesla is using the same battery cell, but a new module and pack architecture, new cooling system and electronics. CTO JB Straubel described the upgrade as a “significant change”.

Musk made it clear during a press conference that this upgrade will be the limit of the current pack form with the current battery cell. Any upgrade in energy capacity would only become available with the new battery cell:

“We are quite close to theoretical limit,” Musk said

Tesla claims ‘Quickest Production Car in the World’ title with new 100 kWh battery pack: 0-60 in 2.5s & 315 mile range
I hope he means in the short term. Improvements in energy density should continue irregardless of cell format. It's a bit of an odd statement.

 

[racer26]

To the VIN counting crowd: Does a P100DL run rate of 200/wk or roughly 10% of production (at 2000/wk) jive with the existing P90DL run rate, or does it represent a significant jump in expected sales of the fully tricked out car?

 

[Hogfighter]

2.5 seconds. That's sick.

 

[racer26]

Tesla claims ‘Quickest Production Car in the World’ title with new 100 kWh battery pack: 0-60 in 2.5s & 315 mile range
I hope he means in the short term. Improvements in energy density should continue irregardless of cell format. It's a bit of an odd statement.

Not really. This is just the end of the 18650 as far as Tesla is concerned.

In another month to 3 months Gigafactory starts cranking out 21-70 cells, first for TE, then automotive. We don't know yet whether or not they'll appear in Model S/X first, or debut on the 3, but we do know they will be coming to S/X eventually. P100DL, and presumably P100D non-L and 100D in the coming months will be the last of the 18650-based pack designs from the sound of it.

My guess would be that the P100DL pack layout is designed to accept the 21-70 cells when they're ready, and this is partially a live-beta of the pack design before the switch comes.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Just a guess.

30-50% of P85D owners will pay to upgrade to 100kwh battery.
20% + will opt to trade in their P85D for a P100D.

Sound reasonable?

Did Elon mention what it is about the P100D that increases its performance?
Anyone else think the 100kwh pack is capable of more than 315 miles of range?

 

[bonaire]

It's worth noting though that this is simply a change in pack layout to accommodate more cells - there is no change in cell chemistry or size, unlike the 85->90 upgrade. I imagine that newer cells will have to wait for the Gigafactory.

Perhaps that is why the mystery Vin # 168668 that was crashed and found in a salvage yard was 100 pounds heavier.

They can probably do more acceleration than 2.5 seconds but neglect to do so because it would be incredibly unsafe in consumer hands. I have talked to an engineer at Tesla a couple years ago and they toy around with the firmware and alter traction control and can smoke tires like any other car. More likely 2.2 to 2.3 is possible with the right adjustments to the system and beefier contactors and current flow choke-points (areas of limited current flow based on physics of the wiring or circuits). Think about it. Electronics launch 30-40 person roller coasters uphill from a dead stop.

 

[Lump]

https://solarbonds.solarcity.com/assets/bond_document/184/?filename=prospectus

Musk & cousins buying $100M of $124M offering.

 

[JRP3]

Not really. This is just the end of the 18650 as far as Tesla is concerned.

But "theoretical limits" have nothing to do with the cell packaging. Elon is usually very precise in the way he discusses technology. Theoretically any cell chemistry "limits" would apply to any cell size and shape.

 

[Sparky]

They really are demand lever central of late.

I must say I'm surprised there's been less of a SP bump from the 2 year lease. I found myself on the order page for a Model X w/ 2yr lease and it was pretty compelling. Especially since my wife's LEAF coming up on its 6 b-day and her Model 3 is about 2 years away. That lease deal needs some advertising IMO.
Finally drove a Model X last weekend and used the FW-Doors to remove/replace small kids. Really nice in too-small parking spots (ahem Trader Joe's). And bystanders can't help but ask about the car when the see they FWDs.

 

[MitchJi]

Not really. This is just the end of the 18650 as far as Tesla is concerned.

In another month to 3 months Gigafactory starts cranking out 21-70 cells, first for TE, then automotive. We don't know yet whether or not they'll appear in Model S/X first, or debut on the 3, but we do know they will be coming to S/X eventually. P100DL, and presumably P100D non-L and 100D in the coming months will be the last of the 18650-based pack designs from the sound of it.

They said 21-70 for MS-MX after the M3 ramp.

 

[dennis]

Just a guess.

30-50% of P85D owners will pay to upgrade to 100kwh battery.
20% + will opt to trade in their P85D for a P100D.

Sound reasonable?

Did Elon mention what it is about the P100D that increases its performance?
Anyone else think the 100kwh pack is capable of more than 315 miles of range?

As an owner of a P85D, I would love to upgrade. However, I can't, at least not yet. From the Tesla blog post: "Existing P90D Ludicrous owners can also upgrade to a 100 kWh pack, but for $20,000, as their used 90 kWh pack will have to be recycled." That makes sense, because you need the new contactors and solid state fuse that came with the Ludicrous upgrade.

As for more range, P90D is EPA 270 and 90D is EPA 294. By extrapolation 100D should be around 340 EPA miles.

 

[schonelucht]

It's mentioned in one of the articles - I think Electrek, or perhaps the Verge.

It's in the Electrek article.

 

[MitchJi]

Elon Musk says Tesla’s software v8.0 with improved Autopilot going to ‘final review’

Elon Musk says Tesla’s software v8.0 with improved Autopilot going to ‘final review’

During the press conference for the release of the new P100D battery pack, Musk refused to answer any question regarding Tesla’s Autopilot program, but he did briefly mention the upcoming v8.0 update:

“One thing I should say though is that with version 8 of the software, which is hopefully going to final review right now, there will be material improvements in the autonomy of the car. I think the amount of work that has been going into version 8.0 will be very noticeable.

The improvements will on several dimensions, but that’s only a software update so it will be applicable to all cars.”

As we mentioned in our original report on v8.0, the beta test build was featuring what Tesla referred to as “the most important UI refresh since the launch of the Model S”. It also had highly requested new media and map updates, and as for the Autopilot, it featured automatic off-ramp with the turn signal and improved Autosteer.

For more details: Exclusive on Tesla 8.0 update: new Autopilot features, biggest UI refresh since launch and much more

That was the original beta build from almost 2 months ago. Tesla likely made some improvements to the update and we could potentially have a few surprises in the wide release.

 

[racer26]

But "theoretical limits" have nothing to do with the cell packaging. Elon is usually very precise in the way he discusses technology. Theoretically any cell chemistry "limits" would apply to any cell size and shape.

The problem with 18650 is, to paraphrase Elon, that it wasn't designed to be the most optimal size. The limits *do indeed* have something to do with the overall efficiency.

Its size defines the packaging, and you can only cram so much mass or volume-efficiency in the cell if too much of the cell's mass or volume is related to its suboptimal case layout. If you assume that:

18650

18mm x pi x 65mm x 0.5mm cylinder wall = 1838mm^3, plus
( 18mm / 2 )^2 x pi x 0.5mm x 2 end plates = 254.5mm^3

total volume = (18mm/2)^2 x pi x 65mm = 16540.5mm^3
total usable cell volume = (18mm / 2)^2 x pi x 65mm - (wallvolume) = 14448mm^3
ratio = 14448/16540.5 = 87.3% of the cells total volume is available for active material


21-70

21mm x pi x 70mm x 0.5mm cylinder wall = 2309mm^3
(21mm/2)^2 x pi x 0.5mm x 2 end plates = 346.5mm^3

total volume = (21mm/2)^2 x pi x 70mm = 24245mm^3
total usable = 24245 - 2309 - 346.5 = 21589.5mm^3
ratio = 21589.5/24245 = 89% of the cells total volume is available for active material

Right there is almost a 2% gain in volumetric efficiency by simply changing the case size (if you assume my estimate of 0.5mm wall thickness is approximately accurate).

EDIT: Before someone says why not just keep making the cells bigger, there are other constraints on total pack efficiency. If you make the cells a larger diameter, you waste more of the overall pack volume on the air gaps between the cells because they don't fit together perfectly.

RE-EDIT: There is 1.49x the active material volume in the 21-70 as in the 18650. Theoretically, you should be able to use 66% of the number of cells to come out with the same capacity. Depending on how much of the cost is packaging of the cell vs active material cost, that could add up to big savings when spread over a pack's worth of cells.

They said 21-70 for MS-MX after the M3 ramp.

This much is true, but they also said we'd see X before we saw the D, and we all know how that turned out. Things like the order in which we expect to see things that are going to come about at approximately the same time, I don't put a lot of weight on.

 

[dmckinstry]

A tesla with frickin' laser beams attached to it?

Yep. Added laser beam boosters. Just don't drive within 0.02 miles (just a back of the envelope guess) behind it. Even farther if your going uphill.