Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[3Victoria]

Worst weeks - I interpret as SpaceX bad and frustrating, SC hassle, v8 hard detailed work, and Model 3 normal hard work. The last two are a more than full time job, and the others are on top. Hold in there EM.

 

[geneclean55]

Next question is, what's going to happen tomorrow? Last week, we had a great Monday as well, which quickly died out and went under for the rest of the week.

TSLA held up pretty well last Tuesday and Wednesday (market closed Monday). Market wide fears crept in on Thursday, and exploded on Friday. So nothing specific to TSLA caused the end of week drop in my opinion. This week the market seems to have calmed down a little about rate hikes...again in my opinion.

 

[racer26]

This would be an insane feat if they pulled off a successful maiden flight before 2020. Anyone want to offer even odds I'll take the over. It nice to see two companies trying to achieve reusability in human spaceflight.

It took Bezos from 2000-2003 to buy land, to 2005 to announce New Shepard (at the time with 2010 start of commercial tourism flights), to 2015 to actually fly a test article, and has yet to fly manned, or actually start tourism flights.

Allegedly, New Glenn has been in the works since 2012. If past is any indication of the future, we should expect New Glenn to maybe fly in 2022, and maybe be manned by 2025 or so. Never mind that Bezos has yet to prove he can land something that's been travelling at orbital velocity, or indeed, even achieve orbit in the first place.

In TM last CC, they mentioned that they made alot of mistakes from the roadster and learned alot. I would presume the same happened to get spacex to this point as well.

Exactly why Bezos is crazy to think he can fly something reusable and nearly Saturn V sized as his first foray into orbital spaceflight.

 

[geneclean55]

Worst weeks - I interpret as SpaceX bad and frustrating, SC hassle, v8 hard detailed work, and Model 3 normal hard work. The last two are a more than full time job, and the others are on top. Hold in there EM.

I interpret this as meaning the explosion couldn't have come at a worse time , not that there can ever be a good time for such a thing!. But in the middle of working incredibly hard towards Q3 blowout, getting the gigafactory to finally produce its own cells, ramp-up in model3 work, the explosion really was awful timing requiring lots of attention during an extremely busy period.

 

[GBleck]

It took Bezos from 2000-2003 to buy land, to 2005 to announce New Shepard (at the time with 2010 start of commercial tourism flights), to 2015 to actually fly a test article, and has yet to fly manned, or actually start tourism flights.

Allegedly, New Glenn has been in the works since 2012. If past is any indication of the future, we should expect New Glenn to maybe fly in 2022, and maybe be manned by 2025 or so. Never mind that Bezos has yet to prove he can land something that's been travelling at orbital velocity, or indeed, even achieve orbit in the first place.



Exactly why Bezos is crazy to think he can fly something reusable and nearly Saturn V sized as his first foray into orbital spaceflight.

Makes sense to go big as he is diving an extra big be-4 methane rocket engine. Might as well build the full size rocket rather then compete with the ula vulcan using the be-3.

2 weeks and counting till mars colonial transport info. Raptor is going to be huge.

 

[stealthology]

A friend told me all 4 hosts on Fast Money tonight said they don't think the deal goes through because of the spread. Everyone and their mom doesn't think this will go through. Do we just know more?

On another note, someone please dispel this negative fear for me: SCTY uses the $300m loan as their lifeline and they're able to stay independent after cost cuts etc.

 

[Intl Professor]

A friend told me all 4 hosts on Fast Money tonight said they don't think the deal goes through because of the spread. Everyone and their mom doesn't think this will go through. Do we just know more?

On another note, someone please dispel this negative fear for me: SCTY uses the $300m loan as a lifeline and they're able to stay independent after cost cuts etc.

Could be but the boards have already approved this so it should go through anyway. I always assume they know what they're doing. This may just mean SCTY is valuable to Tesla and this deal is not just a bailout of one cousin by another.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Tesla doesn't need to be respectful of any investors at all, investors need to be respectful to the fact that they purchased Tesla's vision and long term plans. It you went long for others reasons, then that's on you and how well your particular strategy works out.

I find this rather extreme view.

And if Elon thinks similarly, he should have disclosed it, at least as strongly as Zuckerberg in his initial letter to investors.

In the letter Zuckberberg says that the company “was built to accomplish a social mission” and claims, “we don’t build services to make money; we make money to build better services.” And if you consider master plan as clear as Zuk's statement, you're much better in reading between the lines than I am.

Even after this disclaimer, Zuckerberg has shown a lot more respect for playing expectations game than Elon. Yes, it's a game, but being public company means playing in that sandbox.

Before you feel compelled to criticize me, remember that I'm 100% in TSLA, reservation 3 holder, and currently negotiating to try and trade my older Porsche on classic P90D (for Q3). I am NOT an enemy here. If I'm not devoted enough, so be it.

 

[trentxintong]

A friend told me all 4 hosts on Fast Money tonight said they don't think the deal goes through because of the spread. Everyone and their mom doesn't think this will go through. Do we just know more?

On another note, someone please dispel this negative fear for me: SCTY uses the $300m loan as their lifeline and they're able to stay independent after cost cuts etc.

May I ask why are the 4 hosts still doing the show if they can make money from the stock market. Clearly they are not sure they will be able to make money and they know they could be wrong.

I prefer to placing my trust in people with more information, EM in this case. Even though I find hard to take this guy's word 100%. Overall, he has been pretty consistent and deliver what he promised (maybe with a longer time frame). And he thinks the deal is a slam dunk.

And I find it difficult to trust people who seem to know every stock in the market. I spent many hours looking at a couple of stocks, including the company I work for (AAPL). There are still a lot of things the company surprises me.

 

[tander]

I doubt recall sequeeze will happen at this point, the volume today is not enough to support that theory IMO.

The recall theory should be based on when they have the vote not today's volume shouldn't it?

I wish I could buy more. What should have been a gigantic rally today was constrained by the broad market rally. For better or worse, the next resistance isn't until $210, and after that $220.


Is today the last day of the "go shop period"?

Wednesday according to the S4.

A friend told me all 4 hosts on Fast Money tonight said they don't think the deal goes through because of the spread. Everyone and their mom doesn't think this will go through. Do we just know more?

On another note, someone please dispel this negative fear for me: SCTY uses the $300m loan as their lifeline and they're able to stay independent after cost cuts etc.

I wonder if they know something that Musk & Co don't?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I find this rather extreme view.

And if Elon thinks similarly, he should have disclosed it, at least as strongly as Zuckerberg in his initial letter to investors.

In the letter Zuckberberg says that the company “was built to accomplish a social mission” and claims, “we don’t build services to make money; we make money to build better services.” And if you consider master plan as clear as Zuk's statement, you're much better in reading between the lines than I am.

Even after this disclaimer, Zuckerberg has shown a lot more respect for playing expectations game than Elon. Yes, it's a game, but being public company means playing in that sandbox.

Before you feel compelled to criticize me, remember that I'm 100% in TSLA, reservation 3 holder, and currently negotiating to try and trade my older Porsche on classic P90D (for Q3). I am NOT an enemy here. If I'm not devoted enough, so be it.

Smart CEO's do what makes sense to them and the board of dirrectors, and are usually if not always more informed about the long term plans of the companies they run than other shareholders, even those with large stakes.

Smart CEO's take into account the views of people and entities that own stakes in their company, and people who work for the company, but should ultimately make decisions based on what they believe to be the right course of action, taking into account FACTS instead of FEELINGS.

The majority of the people on TMC complaining about the merger, are making emotionally charged generalized assumptions about Solar City's business model and aren't qualified to advise Elon about what steps Tesla should take.

 

[Turing]

A friend told me all 4 hosts on Fast Money tonight said they don't think the deal goes through because of the spread. Everyone and their mom doesn't think this will go through. Do we just know more?

On another note, someone please dispel this negative fear for me: SCTY uses the $300m loan as their lifeline and they're able to stay independent after cost cuts etc.

For those who have followed these kind of mergers, is it possible for the spread to be wrong here? How much can be predicted based on the spread here? Or is it just one of those things where 30% of the market doesn't think it will go through so the spread just shows this uncertainty even though it is likely to go through?

 

[Intl Professor]

I believe it is a mistake to assume that the market is understandable. Companies, what they do, what they say they plan to do, what is needed to quell our demand for a sustainable world, the second law of thermodynamics, battery technology, sensor technology, machine learning, these are things we can understand through logic, application of "physical first principles," and even measure accurately--but usually only ex post.

There is a difference between the money economy and the real economy. Even banks who should know the most about their connection screw up, either deliberately or inadvertently. Happened at least twice in the last 80 years, big time. We fixed the banks but the Fed is out of ammo, Congress out to lunch, and the flu or the zika virus may determine the next election. And the Fed wants to increase rates? Give me a break.

 

[dakh]

The statement of "the worst few weeks ever". Part 4 of the transcript.

"Michael Ballaban – Jalopnik

Hey Elon, thanks for taking this question. Yesterday you tweeted that it had been an unusually difficult couple of weeks. Was that just a reference to the SpaceX launch pad fire or was there something else going on?

Elon Musk – Tesla CEO

It’s just been a lot. We are still getting a lot of flak for the whole SolarCity thing which I think is unreasonable and you know, there’s a lot effort on the Autopilot, on the Model 3 development and getting the factory for the Model 3, and then the rocket exploding… [pause] … the worst few weeks ever really."

This is quite disturbing actually, worse than when Tesla was about to go bankrupt and SpaceX was out of money to make another go at a successful launch? Ugh.

 

[mmd]

Didn't see posted earlier. Short interest virtually unchanged from 8/15.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I find this rather extreme view.

And if Elon thinks similarly, he should have disclosed it, at least as strongly as Zuckerberg in his initial letter to investors.

In the letter Zuckberberg says that the company “was built to accomplish a social mission” and claims, “we don’t build services to make money; we make money to build better services.” And if you consider master plan as clear as Zuk's statement, you're much better in reading between the lines than I am.

Even after this disclaimer, Zuckerberg has shown a lot more respect for playing expectations game than Elon. Yes, it's a game, but being public company means playing in that sandbox.

Before you feel compelled to criticize me, remember that I'm 100% in TSLA, reservation 3 holder, and currently negotiating to try and trade my older Porsche on classic P90D (for Q3). I am NOT an enemy here. If I'm not devoted enough, so be it.

I'm terrible at reading between lines. EM master plan has nothing to do with making money and adding to shareholder's value. Correct me if I'm wrong. The byproduct of his view, we all hope, will make us money in the distant future. It's nearly as similar as Zuck's statement.

 

[3Victoria]

This is quite disturbing actually, worse than when Tesla was about to go bankrupt and SpaceX was out of money to make another go at a successful launch? Ugh.

How can you say that? Then Tesla was a hairs breath of collapsing ... nowhere close now.

 

[dakh]

How can you say that? Then Tesla was a hairs breath of collapsing ... nowhere close now.

That's my point exactly.

 

[CatB]

This is quite disturbing actually, worse than when Tesla was about to go bankrupt and SpaceX was out of money to make another go at a successful launch? Ugh.

Agree, if Elon thinks this week was worst than when he nearly lost everything, either he's loose with his figure of speech (he's overly optimistic, but not an exaggerator) or he's starting to lose his memory

 

[MitchJi]

Tesla doesn't need to be respectful of any investors at all, investors need to be respectful to the fact that they purchased Tesla's vision and long term plans. It you went long for others reasons, then that's on you and how well your particular strategy works out.

I find this rather extreme view.

The implementation of your opinion requires two new SMP's:
Zhelko's SMP Addendum 1:

However, some readers may not be aware of the fact that our long term plan is to build a wide range of models, including affordably priced family cars. This is because the overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution.

We have decided we need to update this plan.
Saving the planet we live on by expediting the move to a sustainable solar electric solution is now secondary. The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors is now to maximize short term SP gains.

Zhelko's SMP Addendum 2:

However, some readers may not be aware of the fact that our long term plan is to build a wide range of models, including affordably priced family cars. This is because the overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution.

Oops! Sorry but we need another update.
Saving the planet we live on by expediting the move to a sustainable solar electric solution is now secondary. The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors is now to stop relying the advice of our executives who know the most (e.g. Elon, JB and Jason) to make decisions. From now on all major decisions (which will continue to be made to maximize short term SP gains) will be made by taking polls on the TMC ST Thread.

Since those changes are not going to happen (thankfully) you should consider if you really want to continue to be invested in TSLA.

Just out of curiosity what the heck does Zuckerberg have to do with TSLA or Elon?

And if Elon thinks similarly, he should have disclosed it, at least as strongly as Zuckerberg in his initial letter to investors.