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"Since when was nearly half a billion dollars per quarter considered nothing but symbolism?" -- of GROSS MARGIN
and the answer is: when you're asking for $5b in a year from equity markets.
and to put it into perspective... Ford made $40 billion in 2Q16 with $5b in "operating margin"... like I said... it's a strange question... but $400m in gross margin does not contribute in any way to building a car.
so yes... they are demonstrating their ability to grow their factory... but I consider that purely symbolic.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I found this informative and thought it would be something to read and contemplate as we await some likely historical results this weekend or early next week.
"It’s only a bubble if return prospects don’t improve after prices fall. It’s when an asset class offers you no hope of recovery, ever (Or an amount of time that rounds to forever). This only happens when the the entire premise of an investment goes up in smoke."
The Difference Between a Bubble and a Cycle
"It’s only a bubble if return prospects don’t improve after prices fall. It’s when an asset class offers you no hope of recovery, ever (Or an amount of time that rounds to forever). This only happens when the the entire premise of an investment goes up in smoke."
The Difference Between a Bubble and a Cycle
larmor
Active Member
'.... likely to be best ever in Tesla history...' Should have been followed here on short term thread with list of tesla history by quarter. Only more compelling would be a way to fuel the cars for free, oh wait, they are going to do that with TE-thank you the Sun for your free energy...
in a year means every year?
how stupid you are
total is AT MOST 5B
without 500m per Q
u need ask for 9B totally
well... it's been every year since they've gone public and now it's increased to twice a year... i'm not sure why this is an unreasonable point... are you suggesting this next $3b is the last raise we'll see?
they probably won't hit $500m this Q either... it will most likely be less... and then how much of that would actually be left to contribute to their growth plans?
I expect they will need an additional $3b to $5b in cap raises before M3 ships for auto alone and then if SCTY is merged... that will have additional cash needs.
I am serious when I say... considering all that... revenues generated by their current sales aren't really helping much.
This is ridiculous beyond words. Wow.
The timing is a little questionable whereby Elon responds to this tweet a day or two before end of quarter. I mean some of these unusual discounts have been all over TMC, Reddit etc for a while now.
I think it is possible that he wasn't aware of some of the fresh from the factory floor deals. On the plus side for us, I do think this provides impetus to have more information relayed in the deliveries press release, perhaps gross margins, profitability? Or perhaps some tweet to that effect.
I think it is possible that he wasn't aware of some of the fresh from the factory floor deals. On the plus side for us, I do think this provides impetus to have more information relayed in the deliveries press release, perhaps gross margins, profitability? Or perhaps some tweet to that effect.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
The conventional way to look at Tesla's product portfolio is that its sole purpose is to generate $ through sales in order fund to the next generation of car. That is in fact what the original Master Plan on Tesla's blog stated back in 2006.
I see the Model S and Model X a bit differently. They do generate $, but not enough to cover the jump to Model 3. Model S and X serve 2 purposes beyond the profits they generate: (1) A test platform for Tesla's technologies. Autopilot is one example. Another example is the 100 kWh battery pack, which has an entirely new interior architecture. Tesla also learned a lot from bringing these cars to mass production. This develops institutional knowledge in everything from supply chain management and Quality Control to production line expansion. (2) A demonstration of mass production for investors. Many people are confused as to why Tesla continues to be able to raise capital in secondary offerings. I suggest the following hypothesis: Model S and Model X are a hint of what is to come. Institutional investors are willing to keep investing in Tesla because the company has done what many would have considered impossible 10 years ago: sell cars that compete with established luxury brands.
Shutting down production of Model S and Model X from this standpoint would make no sense, because it would halt the ongoing learning process. Also, having $ coming in, even if its only a couple hundred million, is better than having 0 cash and still having to pay for the upkeep on the factory. Finally, there are customers who want the cars. The more Model S and Model X that ship worldwide, the more awareness the brand builds.
The reasoning disconnect I see in a lot of investors is that they are overly focused on numbers. Numbers do matter, but we do not live in a society where math is the only factor. Human factors matter just as much. After all, cars are an emotional purchase for many people.
I just don't think a lot of people with general financial backgrounds really understand the car business or what drives people to want the product. I was a car enthusiast long before I knew anything about Tesla Motors.
You've got few numbers way off. I feel for you if you really maintaining your short position based on research like *that*
- ASP is *much* higher than $85K, and never was that low
- Automotive margin in Q2 was 23.1% GAAP, 21.9% non-GAAP, with guidance to *increase* 2-3 percentage points through Q3 and Q4, and per Elon during the Q2 ER is tracking to a blended 28% in 2017
- Q1 warranty accrual rate declined compared to Q4 2015, and was steady in Q1 and Q2, not increased
Tesla Motors: 20,000 Deliveries Would Be Positive
Ben Kallo, one of the sharper analysts, seems to be low balling expectations in advance of Q3. If 20k is good, what is 25k as many on this board envision. I would say crazy good. Nice counterpoint to some of the Pacific Crest FUD about discounting.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
What you say here is 'this is how I interpret this fact', without trying to figure out how market will interpret it. Even if your way is correct, it doesn't matter, market's way matters.
It feels you are just being stubborn now. As I mentioned, I like to hear good short theses, and I had higher hopes for your contribution...
I think Ben Kallo is just maintaining 21K deliveries assumption from his previous note. I agree that he suspects that deliveries will be much higher, just chose to stick with his previously published number, which is totally fine with me.
Seems like analysts are looking for anywhere between 20-22k. If Tesla beats that handily, I hope they come out with upgrades soon after.
Ben was totally burned by SPWRs missed guidance last quarter, essentially asking on the conference call why the company had lied (he didn't say lied, but he sure implied it.) Once burned. No way he's upping guidance now and then looks like he's an out of touch analyst if Tesla misses. Would be shocking if company was under 21,000 deliveries. That number isn't the floor, it's the dirt crawl space under the basement.I think Ben Kallo is just maintaining 21K deliveries assumption from his previous note. I agree that he suspects that deliveries will be much higher, just chose to stick with his previously published number, which is totally fine with me.
mmd
Active Member
Tell me, that being a lawyer, you can't see loopholes in that email.
Now imagine you are in charge of Tesla sales. Your target is set at 25,000 but your order book shows 15000. You can't advertise (Tesla policy) and you already pulled all other demand levers, like referral credit, pop-up stores, 2 year lease, MS60 etc. etc. You miss the target, your head rolls. What do you do?
@Lump Yes, I'll make this a public comment because you've officially gone beyond the level of being a troll. Disliking every post I made today without any reason? I disliked your posts because all of them were completely off the wall wrong. You appear to not believe that Elon is not a competent CEO and you primarily post nothing but bearish BS. WTH is your problem?
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I feel some of the delivery estimates are way too high. Elon and Ben are probably trying to tell us what's the realistic number.
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