Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[ludicrousspeed]

Are we paying attention to who is running the show? Have we forgotten what has come before today? There is not a thing in the world that will stop the guy from reaching the goal. Reread this article if you've forgotten who we're talking about: What is it like to work with Elon Musk? - Quora

Go back and rewatch all his interviews of him telling the history of Tesla and SpaceX and the Hell he went through. If by chance something is *broken* with the X, it'll get fixed. It just will. Have a little faith in those who have gotten to this point against all odds.

+1 it's hard to understand Tesla's future without knowing about its past and who runs the show. Sentiment has gotten so negative here that some are questioning Musk's decisions and whether he can run two companies but I wouldn't want anybody else as CEO. He may not accomplish his promises on time, but he still always does what he says he will do, even when others once deemed that task impossible. The X will be no exception.

 

[sub]

I'm not angry or anything, and it's my sincere advice to everyone. Take the facts or arguments, doesn't matter from where it comes. Follow the links. Don't trust anyone's words, including mine. I've seen how you quickly lost tons of money in options, likely listening only to the things you wanted to hear. Hopefully you cashed out some when stock jumped to $200 for a day. I presented 2 facts today (well, 1 kind of opinion). You seemed to have picked only the one you liked
1. A path to FCF positive in Q1 (short term positive for TSLA)
2. Low California CVRP rebates till Jan 26 (could be considered as negative)

Well, I have no hard feeling on your comment Let's carry on with trying to make some money.

#2 is obvious, you need to look no further than the previous qtrs to see a similar pattern. This 1st qtr may be unusual due to the extremely hard push they made in Q4 to meet guidance. Worthless data over that time period.

Ditto. But with my feet up, a bowl of popcorn and something to wet the whistle. You can't make this stuff up. Best re-rerun I've ever seen.

exactly

 

[AlMc]

@sub: I was wrong and you were right about the last ER/CC. Any predictions this time? I got 'nothin' (prediction wise),




BUT...I do plan to stay at a Holiday Inn Express next Tuesday to see if it helps:wink:

 

[Drax7]

Ditto. But with my feet up, a bowl of popcorn and something to wet the whistle. You can't make this stuff up. Best re-rerun I've ever seen.

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What about it? Are we paying attention to who is running the show? Have we forgotten what has come before today? There is not a thing in the world that will stop the guy from reaching the goal. Reread this article if you've forgotten who we're talking about: What is it like to work with Elon Musk? - Quora

Go back and rewatch all his interviews of him telling the history of Tesla and SpaceX and the Hell he went through. If by chance something is *broken* with the X, it'll get fixed. It just will. Have a little faith in those who have gotten to this point against all odds.

Ive read everything there is to read on musk in the last three years. Lots of folklore too.
He also mentioned that at the beginning every decision they made turned out to be
wrong. I Fear model X is a serious problem until it proves otherwise. I await the
proof .

 

[anticitizen13.7]

+1 it's hard to understand Tesla's future without knowing about its past and who runs the show. Sentiment has gotten so negative here that some are questioning Musk's decisions and whether he can run two companies but I wouldn't want anybody else as CEO. He may not accomplish his promises on time, but he still always does what he says he will do, even when others once deemed that task impossible. The X will be no exception.

I am one of those people who questions Elon's decisions. HOWEVER, I wouldn't want anybody else as CEO either. Elon is a rare visionary of the type that shows up once in a generation, if at all. The "ecosystem" of Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity, and Hyperloop is remarkable in its long-term implications for the future of humanity.

What I am saying is that Tesla needs someone in the role of President/COO to take some of the pressure off of Elon.

I've used the Apple analogy before:

Elon Musk :: Steve Jobs
Franz von Holhausen :: Jony Ive
??? :: Tim Cook

I don't want to forget J.B. Straubel... I think his equivalent at Apple would be Johny Srouji.

Although Tim Cook is not very popular among the Apple Faithful right now, it's indisputable that he's a master of operations and supply chain management. Tesla needs a superstar for this role, just like Apple perhaps needs a visionary to get back on track. SpaceX has Gwynn Shotwell as President/COO, so why doesn't Tesla have someone in this role?

 

[Buddyroe]

Model X is a required vehicle for Tesla. I don't think they had a choice.

Yes, we all know that. But, I didn't say my fears were about the money developing the X. Rather, it's the features that I specifically said were killing the ramp up of the X and also delayed it by a year, and also cost God-knows how much money (way more than Tesla could afford).

And we haven't even STARTED with the warranty repairs yet!

A good looking SUV with features similar to the S was all that was needed - in 2014. When the money starts rolling in, then you design and implement those funky doors. You don't burn all your cash to develop something that has been tried before and failed, no one is clamoring for, and most importantly, YOU CAN'T AFFORD!!

My neighbor is trying to buy a Ford Explorer. The dealer basically told him it was sticker minus any rebates on a $55k Platinum Edition. He said they can't get them in as fast as they're selling them. Shocking! How are they able to sell SUVs with regular doors? How will people get their kids in? And you know dang-well that those falcon doors are at least $10k of the cost of the car (probably more like $15k). Imagine if the exact car had come out with regular doors in 2014 for $60 to $65k.

And, take a look at SUV sales in America last year - THROUGH THE ROOF, with some segments increasing by more than 15% from 2014. Tesla TOTALLY missed out on that opportunity. All for expensive to design, hard to manufacture falcon wing doors! Just disgusts me.

 

[theschnell]

This certainly doesn't seem as bad 2010 - 2012, although I wasn't around then so I wouldn't know. The doom and gloom on this thread feels pretty ridiculous, but maybe model X will be more challanging then I think.

 

[AlMc]

I am one of those people who questions Elon's decisions. HOWEVER, I wouldn't want anybody else as CEO either. Elon is a rare visionary of the type that shows up once in a generation, if at all. The "ecosystem" of Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity, and Hyperloop is remarkable in its long-term implications for the future of humanity.

What I am saying is that Tesla needs someone in the role of President/COO to take some of the pressure off of Elon.

I've used the Apple analogy before:

Elon Musk :: Steve Jobs
Franz von Holhausen :: Jony Ive
??? :: Tim Cook

I don't want to forget J.B. Straubel... I think his equivalent at Apple would be Johny Srouji.

Although Tim Cook is not very popular among the Apple Faithful right now, it's indisputable that he's a master of operations and supply chain management. Tesla needs a superstar for this role, just like Apple perhaps needs a visionary to get back on track. SpaceX has Gwynn Shotwell as President/COO, so why doesn't Tesla have someone in this role?

Excellent post: Previously I was leaning towards keeping EM' s time/talent from being stretched too thin by being CEO of two rapidly growing companies....but I agree with you, a 'Tim Cooke like' person to oversee operations would be a better alternative

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Fairly sure there is more to this story that ASLOP hasn't said. Today's drop was prompted by nothing. If Tesla falls tomorrow I'm putting 100% in.

I encourage everyone to read ASLOP's entire rant about the Model X event.

1) He sounds like a whiny self absorbed entitled prick.
2) He dares to say that Tesla events aren't well catered. A stacked open bar and hors d'oeuvres for 1000+ people not good enough?)
3) He complains about the quality of the presentation and comments that Tesla was wrong for highlighting how safe the Model X is?

I drove 2.5 hours round trip. I arrived on time, waited around 30 minutes outside the building, got packed inside the building with ~3,000 other people for another 60 minutes, got moved from one room inside the building to another to wait another 20 minutes with the same 3,000 people. And then, drum roll please, you shuffle out on stage and start with a slide show — an amateur slide show at that — all about how safe the Model X is.Yup, you lead with safety, like that’s why we’re all spending $130,000 or more on this car!

Afer finishing complaining about the event starting late, the absence of a four course dinner, having to wait in line for a Test drive, and Tesla taking up his time by highlighting the safety features of the Model X, ASLOP basically says he thinks Tesla must be a poorly run company because the event (That he chose to drive 2.5 hours to without knowing what to expect) didn't meet his expectations?

Should I wonder if there are other problems in managing Tesla as a company? Is this a marketing failure or do you treat your customers like this after they get their car?

 

[gene]

I've got 3,000 shares in the race that I bought at a $140 average. Plus I have been buying more these last few days. Two days after ER, I'll be doing a Tesla Factory Tour. I'm hoping I am in a REALLY good mood for the tour!

 

[theschnell]

Yes, we all know that. But, I didn't say my fears were about the money developing the X. Rather, it's the features that I specifically said were killing the ramp up of the X and also delayed it by a year, and also cost God-knows how much money (way more than Tesla could afford).

And we haven't even STARTED with the warranty repairs yet!

A good looking SUV with features similar to the S was all that was needed - in 2014. When the money starts rolling in, then you design and implement those funky doors. You don't burn all your cash to develop something that has been tried before and failed, no one is clamoring for, and most importantly, YOU CAN'T AFFORD!!

My neighbor is trying to buy a Ford Explorer. The dealer basically told him it was sticker minus any rebates on a $55k Platinum Edition. He said they can't get them in as fast as they're selling them. Shocking! How are they able to sell SUVs with regular doors? How will people get their kids in? And you know dang-well that those falcon doors are at least $10k of the cost of the car (probably more like $15k). Imagine if the exact car had come out with regular doors in 2014 for $60 to $65k.

And, take a look at SUV sales in America last year - THROUGH THE ROOF, with some segments increasing by more than 15% from 2014. Tesla TOTALLY missed out on that opportunity. All for expensive to design, hard to manufacture falcon wing doors! Just disgusts me.

While much of what you say is true, this is such a short-term view. Those falcon wing doors will be a competitive advantage over the long-term. SUV sales are fickle. Look at 2007 - 2009. But there is only one current production vehicle with those cool falcon wing doors. Most people will find those to be really cool and will they will be one of those emotional hooks that make people buy tesla verse the competition.

 

[techmaven]

Yes, we all know that. But, I didn't say my fears were about the money developing the X. Rather, it's the features that I specifically said were killing the ramp up of the X and also delayed it by a year, and also cost God-knows how much money (way more than Tesla could afford).

Sure. I felt the same way. However, the more I look at it, the more I am thinking that the realities of physics and some usability requirements have forced Model X design. No one else has built a production 200+ mile battery electric vehicle with 7 adult seats. The aerodynamics forces a certain roof line and body shape. That roof line and body shape rules out sliding doors. The desire to access the 3rd row, combined with the roof line and the body shape makes conventional doors unwieldy and entrance difficult. I don't like getting in and out of the 3rd row in my Mercedes GL450, it feels like a penalty box. The falcon wing doors are then a major design point. With that set, the sunroof is not an option... It can't move back into the falcon wing doors. So hence the pano windshield. Then the 2nd row seats become an issue, as each side next to the door need to be able to move forward. My GL's seats fold forward, but that's cumbersome. Once batteries get another major improvement cycle, maybe we can get traditional SUV looks with the CDa that is massive and still get 200 miles of range. But I don't think Tesla had many choices given the design requirements and the existing battery technology. Maybe with CFRP, the weight loss would be enough to make much worse aerodynamics for more SUV functionality.

As a result, I think concepts like the Audi Q6 e-tron are laughable as a result... They likely are not anywhere near reality.

 

[Noble Ninja]

While much of what you say is true, this is such a short-term view. Those falcon wing doors will be a competitive advantage over the long-term. SUV sales are fickle. Look at 2007 - 2009. But there is only one current production vehicle with those cool falcon wing doors. Most people will find those to be really cool and will they will be one of those emotional hooks that make people buy tesla verse the competition.

And a lot of research has shown that buying a car for most people is largely an emotionally-driven purchase, even though it shouldn't be. As Elon has mentioned about Tesla's business strategy, they don't just want to build amazing electric cars but also just generally a car (ICE or EV) that people will desire and lust over owning (invoking an emotional response).

 

[Buddyroe]

And a lot of research has shown that buying a car for most people is largely an emotionally-driven purchase, even though it shouldn't be. As Elon has mentioned about Tesla's business strategy, they don't just want to build amazing electric cars but also just generally a car (ICE or EV) that people will desire and lust over owning (invoking an emotional response).

Man, you guys just don't get it. The point is, Tesla has designed a VERY nice car. I never said that people wouldn't want to buy it. The problem is, TESLA CAN'T BUILD IT! And it caused the car to be 2 years late. And it cost probably $200M more than it would have. None of which Tesla could afford to have happen at such a young age of the company.

 

[JRP3]

Why would power companies want TSLA to fail?

Ever cheaper and better Powerwalls and Powerpacks coupled with cheaper and better solar panels would be quite problematic for all the installed fossil fuel powered generating capacity currently owned by the power companies.

 

[Yuri_G]

Man, you guys just don't get it. The point is, Tesla has designed a VERY nice car. I never said that people wouldn't want to buy it. The problem is, TESLA CAN'T BUILD IT! And it caused the car to be 2 years late. And it cost probably $200M more than it would have. None of which Tesla could afford to have happen at such a young age of the company.

It's like the Model S ramp never existed.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Man, you guys just don't get it. The point is, Tesla has designed a VERY nice car. I never said that people wouldn't want to buy it. The problem is, TESLA CAN'T BUILD IT! And it caused the car to be 2 years late. And it cost probably $200M more than it would have. None of which Tesla could afford to have happen at such a young age of the company.

They can't build it in quantity… yet.

I'm as frustrated with the slowness of the ramp as anyone else, but I think Tesla will get it taken care of in the next few months. The hard part is figuring out how to build certain components to spec in quantity. Once that's taken care of production should start to go up.

I do not yet feel that the situation with Model X is a major $ problem, as Model S had around 30k units delivered in 2014 and 50k units in 2015. This is far above the original forecast of 20k units/year. With most of Model X R&D completed, Tesla's financial resources are less constrained than they would have been a year ago. We will know more with the Q4 '15 financial statement. No use worrying unless the financials are problematic.

 

[aznt1217]

Ever cheaper and better Powerwalls and Powerpacks coupled with cheaper and better solar panels would be quite problematic for all the installed fossil fuel powered generating capacity currently owned by the power companies.

It's either this or mass extinction. I opt for the former lol

 

[theschnell]

Man, you guys just don't get it. The point is, Tesla has designed a VERY nice car. I never said that people wouldn't want to buy it. The problem is, TESLA CAN'T BUILD IT! And it caused the car to be 2 years late. And it cost probably $200M more than it would have. None of which Tesla could afford to have happen at such a young age of the company.

Again, a short-term view. They can't build it right now, but they will be able to soon enough.

 

[Crowded Mind]

And a lot of research has shown that buying a car for most people is largely an emotionally-driven purchase, even though it shouldn't be. As Elon has mentioned about Tesla's business strategy, they don't just want to build amazing electric cars but also just generally a car (ICE or EV) that people will desire and lust over owning (invoking an emotional response).

Completely agree with you and techmaven. Skeptics need a more holistic viewpoint. Model X is a halo, luxury vehicle. Tesla was not trying to make a normal SUV that happened to be electric and anyone expecting that should probably go back 3.5 years and watch the reveal again. That was clearly not the intention, nor should it have been. Could Tesla have sold as many X's as they could produce for a multi-year period regardless of the doors? Absolutely. But I'm confident there would be a heck of a lot less people texting their friends and family pictures of this super cool SUV if it just had normal doors. Now you can send them something unlike anything they've ever seen, and by the way it's as fast as a Ferrari. How is that possible? Oh, it's electric, that's how. You don't need to want these doors on your own vehicle, you just need to understand the importance. Think about how much press these things have already generated. I guarantee these doors have already sold many Model S's, with the benefit kicking in day one of the reveal and consistently growing over time. Tesla understands how important word of mouth is. Look at the referral bonus. They didn't just discount cars, they simultaneously incentivized their customer base to promote their brand. Model X has its own referral program built in. All you need to do is search youtube for falcon wing doors if you don't believe that. These doors are a huge boon for Model 3 and every Tesla vehicle to ever come off the line. They will get it ramped. They will get it ramped. They will get it ramped.