Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Ulmo]

Those of you discussing the possibility of a folded-in insurance benefit - I believe Zhelko began the discussion - whence comes this conjecture? Has the concept any back story - if so, I'd like to learn of it, because if not, although in grossest terms one can envision the rationale for a manufacturer...OR a manufacturer-cum-service company (as one reasonably could describe Tesla from, say, 2018 onwards), nevertheless the capital structure of any insurance company is so vastly different that I think we're way, way out on a limb here. Case in point is General Electric, and after 2008 that 120-year old company almost foundered as a result of its finance/insurance arm.

I agree. During the Q&A (link

timepoint 2:52 first question, thanks other poster), Elon said Tesla's going to let users' insurance handle it (with exception of something endemic to their design).

I think the biggest problem is that we already knew they were going to be fully autonomous eventually. The big announcement is just telling us what we already know..

We now know that it is being released now (for the part that matters -- the huge capital expenditure, the hardware for the user).

 

[theschnell]

I think the biggest problem is that we already knew they were going to be fully autonomous eventually. The big announcement is just telling us what we already know..

But we had no clue when. Now we know the hardware is in place, and software is shortly to follow. I've been thinking 5-7 years. That is now cut in half.

 

[FredTMC]

I can't imagine using "my prized" personal tesla for autonomous riding-sharing. It's too nice and I have golf clubs and other crap in it all the time

HOWEVER, I think it'll be fun to buy two Model 3s (I have two reservations) and use one of them for riding-sharing on the Tesla Network. Might be kinda fun to play around with. The ride-sharing one will be pretty spartan and My personal one will be "loaded"

 

[dakh]

and when they do that... they completely destroy the equations that exist in the auto industry today and cannibalize their own product!... don't you see this?

You're saying this as if it was some kind of imminent possibility. With every disruption, disruptor eventually becomes commodity and then gets disrupted again. That doesn't mean they don't make a *sugar*load of money before that happens. Replacing the entire transportation system that exists today is no small feat, and it'll be a while before that is accomplished.

 

[SunCatcher]

Again, Americans won't give up their cars any more than they'll give up their AR-15s and Glocks.

Plenty will. I will. Don't you just love it sometimes when someone else does the driving, and you can just sit back and enjoy? And if you are in the mood, you can drive.

 

[theschnell]

and when they do that... they completely destroy the equations that exist in the auto industry today and cannibalize their own product!... don't you see this?

No, because they will own the auto industry that remains. They will not sell this to other manufacturers. This will stay in house. Only possible exception will be other electric cars but that is unlikely. No ICE vehicles will run tesla software. None.

 

[myusername]

Your premise is faulty. People do care about what car they drive or are seen in. It's no different than clothing, houses, and mobile phones.

The reality is that for better or worse, modern societies are highly individualistic. Automobiles in particular stir deep emotions in people, whether they live in the affluent suburbs of West Chester County NY, rural Tennessee, or downtown Mumbai. Tell people to give up their cars for faceless, shared transit pods and you'll get a reaction about as nasty as the suggestion that they should give up their AR-15s.

"People do care about what car they drive or are seen in"

Elon constantly challenges you to dream many years out and consider the possibilities... that's cool... and I'm challenging you to imagine a world where autonomous vehicles exist safely... just like Elon is... with the caveat...

that ideas like: "People do care about what car they drive or are seen in"

will not hold true in that future.

we aren't fully grasping what's being proposed... and i'm making two points... one: we are no where close to this reality... and if we were... then Tesla as a company is in jeopardy of it.

 

[myusername]

No, because they will own the auto industry that remains. They will not sell this to other manufacturers. This will stay in house. Only possible exception will be other electric cars but that is unlikely. No ICE vehicles will run tesla software. None.

"No, because they will own the auto industry that remains"

and believing that there will only be one auto company in the future is the sad bet being made.

 

[myusername]

and that's it... i'm done for the night. will be interesting to see what happens to the stock tomorrow.

 

[30seconds]

I see this as an incredible stimulator for S+X demand along with longer term 3 demand. BMW, Audi, Cadillac, Mercedes haven't delivered anything that approaches the current autopilot whereas every new tesla is already equipped for the next massive jump.

The German luxury cars are looking more like super fancy horse drawn carriages vs the ford model T every day. Maybe the interior has more leather and maybe a few extra features, but the Teslas are miles ahead in technology and that gap is growing wider.

 

[Vitold]

you think Elon is thinking futuristically... but he's only playing the autonomous vehicle card of 2016... "Automobiles in particular stir deep emotions in people"... but they won't if nobody actually owns them!!!!

does that make sense?

if fully autonomous is ever actually achieved... we will no longer own vehicles... look at car2go!... imagine if those car2go cars were 100% autonomous... would you buy one? NO!... you'd USE them... and you wouldn't care if a freaking yugo picked you up... as long as it was affordable...

seriously... this whole line of thinking that we've just been subjected to is "ludicrous".

the real plot line is: Tesla needs to release the M3... on time... profitably... and reasonably... without hubris.

this crap we're talking about is hubris.

I actually doubt that Tesla will be able to achieve Level 5 autonomy with 8 cameras and Nvidia Titan.
I'm pretty sure however that Tesla will have a leading Level 4 system for years to come.

It's also smart for Tesla to release 2.0 hardware now for few reasons:

• Tesla will have refined system for M3 launch
• Buyers no longer have to worry about buying 'obsolete' car
• Releasing 2.0 early Tesla will have less AP1.0 cars to support in the future

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Did Tesla just quietly add the ability to place orders for (Build and Order) the Powerpack on Tesla.com?

 

[myusername]

Plenty will. I will. Don't you just love it sometimes when someone else does the driving, and you can just sit back and enjoy? And if you are in the mood, you can drive.

I will too.

 

[AudubonB]

Myusername:

I'm a little confused at the logic behind your proposition. If I understand you correctly, you are saying that once a vehicle...or effectively all vehicles...are fully autonomous, then no one will care which robotic car picks one up.

Phenomenologically, how does that differ from today's situation, where some choose Yellow cabs, some call-up limousines only, and others religiously take the #3 bus? What sea change in consumers' attitudes are you expecting?

 

[dakh]

I actually doubt that Tesla will be able to achieve Level 5 autonomy with 8 cameras and Nvidia Titan.
I'm pretty sure however that Tesla will have a leading Level 4 system for years to come.

It's also smart for Tesla to release 2.0 hardware now for few reasons:

• Tesla will have refined system for M3 launch
• Buyers no longer have to worry about buying 'obsolete' car
• Releasing 2.0 early Tesla will have less AP1.0 cars to support in the future

Sorry I don't grok what you're talking about. From what I can tell level 4 differs from level 5 only by the option of manual driving in level 4 that is deleted in level 5. Not having a steering wheel on that van thing based on Model X they're talking about would be perfectly logical for example. Essentially level 4 equipped car will be MORE expensive vs. level 5.

 

[Remus]

would you be investing in Tesla today if you knew they'd be part of an industry that went from $2T to $500b in 10 years?.

you underestimate the ride sharing industry once the price come down. In San Francisco alone, Uber and Lyft expand the old taxi market by nearly two order of magnitudes and both of their ridership is still growing exponentially. Now if the cost of the Uber cut by 70% that would be a totally different story. The demand would simply explode. Think about all the people that can not drive and won't take a Uber for daily activities because of price, including the blind or otherwise handicapped, seniors, kids going to after school or other activities.

And that is only transporting people. What about cargo, including long haul trucking and local delivery? We are talking about Uber, Lyft, Amazon Now, Google Express, UPS, FedEx, USPS, MayFlower, United shipping, etc.

 

[tander]

... is not only an industry disruptor... it's a Tesla killer...
seriously... this stuff is way complicated when you look at the macro implications... the reality is... makes today's announcement completely immature in terms of technological thinking.

Comon man, it's good to hear both sides of a debate and keeping the forum open minded, but this statement seems like you haven't done your homework. Even if autonomous vehicles shrink auto to a 500B industry, isn't it reasonable to assume that Tesla would have a good chunk of that since they only makes best in class products? Wouldn't they also be a dominant player in these autonomous vehicles, maybe that industry would end up bigger than auto themselves? Moreover couldn't they just expand into other growing industries such as... rechargeable batteries or solar generation? Haven't they already said they expect the battery/solar side of the business to be as big as cars? (These are rhetorical questions)

 

[larmor]

and when they do that... they completely destroy the equations that exist in the auto industry today and cannibalize their own product!... don't you see this?

QED that is why the comparison with GM is apropo, also throw in mitsubishi, toyota, they will provide a cheaper solution to personal transport... Shhh, don't tell anyone, but alot of other people in other countries also use cars, and alot of them are not interested in driving themselves or even owning the car....

FWIW, their product is not the car, it is mobility and energy...

 

[larmor]

In case it hasn't all ready been discussed, is there some company, startup or VC planning to buy AP2 teslas in large quantities for car ride services?

 

[Vitold]

Sorry I don't grok what you're talking about. From what I can tell level 4 differs from level 5 only by the option of manual driving in level 4 that is deleted in level 5. Not having a steering wheel on that van thing based on Model X they're talking about would be perfectly logical for example. Essentially level 4 equipped car will be MORE expensive vs. level 5.

from wikipedia:

• Level 4: The automated system can control the vehicle in all but a few environments such as severe weather. The driver must enable the automated system only when it is safe to do so. When enabled, driver attention is not required.
• Level 5: Other than setting the destination and starting the system, no human intervention is required. The automatic system can drive to any location where it is legal to drive.

I have my doubts that cameras will be able to function well in all weather conditions and that 12 ultrasonic sensors may not be enough to see at different elevations (recall summoned car that drove under a truck incident) as they have pretty narrow field of view. Also, EM have sold me on the importance of radar only to use just one in v2.0 - I'm not sure what to think of that development.