One thing that I haven't seen many comments on yet: Elon was very excited about the new solar roof, even saying that it turned out much better than he expected. I'm hoping for something very compelling on Friday!
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What no cries of "it's all a scam"? Even with the Doom&Gloom crowd on ignore it is tough to keep up with this thread. I'll leave them on ignore but they'll be back in a few days or weeks with new monikers and some new line of attack on TSLA.Just for fun I took a few people off ignore togloatsee what they had to say.....crickets
TrendTrader007
Active Member
TSLA Revenues increase 145 % YOY and EPS 153% this is HUGE
accelerating EPS and Revs are the major reason why a growth stock outperforms
Elon Musk is a super great CEO
i expect nothing less than stellar outperformance from this stock relative to the market over the next several years
any investor with any sense will buy as much TSLA stock as possible and hold it for the real long term
TSLA is the next AAPL and simply the single best stock to own
i stay super long forever
accelerating EPS and Revs are the major reason why a growth stock outperforms
Elon Musk is a super great CEO
i expect nothing less than stellar outperformance from this stock relative to the market over the next several years
any investor with any sense will buy as much TSLA stock as possible and hold it for the real long term
TSLA is the next AAPL and simply the single best stock to own
i stay super long forever
in the year 2030: "yeah, sure they are worth 10T and are wildly profitable but they never talk about their Mongolian market share. Just say'in. Maybe they are hiding something? I am just concerned for you guys, maybe you are too bullish. i wouldn't want you to lose your money."
Shouldn't they be skeptical on demand on Mars in 2030?
After posting this I looked at that guy Spiegle's Twitter rants. Wow he is one severely stressed person. Hopefully if his office isn't in his mother's basement they have the windows nailed shut. Guess tomorrow is not going to be a good day to have shorted TSLA.
In case this got buried, I am hosting a Google hangout tonight at 9 pm EST ... about half an hour from now. If you want to join, please PM me your Google email address and I will add you to the invite.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Dear cult members, I love youElon Musk added
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Bears are thinking we will take profits if they push hard. Resist any temptation and watch the fireworks
N5329K
Active Member
Even Bloomberg is screwing up. In their video on TM's profit they raised the usual "Tesla can't execute to a deadline" which, to be honest, is basically true. But their evidence- that Model 3 deliveries promised in 2017 have been pushed back to late 2018- is bogus. A reservation placed today will probably be delivered late 2018-19. A car reserved in March or April 2016 is still, according to Elon, on target.
Robin
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
The host of the hangout needs your email so he can send you an invite. At that point you just click the link at the designated time.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
You should go to hangouts.google.com and install the plugin.
I'm also interested in doing a Google hangout. Great quarter and Q4 looks like it may be even better.
Personally, I have been a little hung up on Elon's comment on the Tesla Network, specifically in regard to the majority of revenue going to the customer. I did a bit of math below trying to explain my thoughts for those interested. On one hand, it made me a feel a little better, but I still don't fully understand how Tesla can justify giving the majority of revenue for ride-sharing to customers. Apologies for excessive use of parentheticals.
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It looks to me like UberX charges about $1.50 -$2.00 per mile. Anyone have the math that Julian did on the all-in cost an autonomous EV? I think it came out to something a bit under $0.10/mile? I don't think this factored in any cleaning or upkeep time, so perhaps a little aggressive.
So let's say Tesla Network charges $1.00/mile and Tesla takes $0.30/mile while the owner gets $0.70/mile. This would generate the owner $0.60/booked mile. Assuming the car books about two 5-mile trips per hour (avg. Uber trip looks to be 6.4 miles) and has to travel about the same distance to pickup the passenger, cost would be about $2.00 and revenue would be $10.00. Tesla gets $3.00, the owner gets $7.00 and profits $5.00. Say the car is in service mode on average 10 hours/day so it generates profit of $50/day. This would generate ~$18,000 per year in profit for the owner which would pay for the ~$45k vehicle in two and a half years. Over a 5 year investment period, that's a 15% annual return (plus a free car for 14 hours a day). The car would have 365,000 miles on it at this point, plus any owner miles. Still, Tesla also generates ~$9k (20% GM) on the initial sale of which maybe $2k-$3k make it to the bottom line. Then, over that 5 years, Tesla generates ($3.00 * 10 * 365 * 5) = $55,000 which GM% is probably 100% on, and maybe a 70% operating margin? So a Model 3 in this scenario would have a COGS of roughly $36k and Tesla will generate $100k in revenue for a GM% of 64% (minus any discount on the cost of capital over 5 years) with a whopping 40.5% operating margin (ok, I have to be wrong on this, right?? ) $45k with operating income of $2k, $55k with operating income of $38.5k. This would put operating expenses + COGS (are there any not included in Model 3 COGS?) of the Tesla Network at $1.6B/year for 500,000 cars, which I guess is the big question mark.
An owner only needs to generate $31.50/day to earn a 5% annual return over 5 years (and come on, a normal car depreciates 60%, or -17% annually, over 5 years) so with the variables above, Tesla could keep 48.5% of revenue and earn $6,750 more per car per year. On 500k cars, this is $3.4B/yr on the bottom line that Tesla is giving away to the owners if they only take 30%. It doesn't make sense to me to do that unless Tesla is demand constrained at that point. $3.4B/yr in Tesla's hands will accelerate sustainable energy more than $3.4B in the owners' hands.
I may make a spreadsheet that has these different assumptions as variables so we can all run some sensitivity analysis on them if people are interested. This is somewhat inconsequential now because if anything like either of these scenarios come to fruition, Tesla is going be one of the highest market cap companies in the world, but I would still like to understand the logic behind Elon's comments.
I'm off to dig into other threads that I am not fully caught up on as I would not be surprised to see this has already been discussed. Thanks for any replies.
Personally, I have been a little hung up on Elon's comment on the Tesla Network, specifically in regard to the majority of revenue going to the customer. I did a bit of math below trying to explain my thoughts for those interested. On one hand, it made me a feel a little better, but I still don't fully understand how Tesla can justify giving the majority of revenue for ride-sharing to customers. Apologies for excessive use of parentheticals.
---
It looks to me like UberX charges about $1.50 -$2.00 per mile. Anyone have the math that Julian did on the all-in cost an autonomous EV? I think it came out to something a bit under $0.10/mile? I don't think this factored in any cleaning or upkeep time, so perhaps a little aggressive.
So let's say Tesla Network charges $1.00/mile and Tesla takes $0.30/mile while the owner gets $0.70/mile. This would generate the owner $0.60/booked mile. Assuming the car books about two 5-mile trips per hour (avg. Uber trip looks to be 6.4 miles) and has to travel about the same distance to pickup the passenger, cost would be about $2.00 and revenue would be $10.00. Tesla gets $3.00, the owner gets $7.00 and profits $5.00. Say the car is in service mode on average 10 hours/day so it generates profit of $50/day. This would generate ~$18,000 per year in profit for the owner which would pay for the ~$45k vehicle in two and a half years. Over a 5 year investment period, that's a 15% annual return (plus a free car for 14 hours a day). The car would have 365,000 miles on it at this point, plus any owner miles. Still, Tesla also generates ~$9k (20% GM) on the initial sale of which maybe $2k-$3k make it to the bottom line. Then, over that 5 years, Tesla generates ($3.00 * 10 * 365 * 5) = $55,000 which GM% is probably 100% on, and maybe a 70% operating margin? So a Model 3 in this scenario would have a COGS of roughly $36k and Tesla will generate $100k in revenue for a GM% of 64% (minus any discount on the cost of capital over 5 years) with a whopping 40.5% operating margin (ok, I have to be wrong on this, right?? ) $45k with operating income of $2k, $55k with operating income of $38.5k. This would put operating expenses + COGS (are there any not included in Model 3 COGS?) of the Tesla Network at $1.6B/year for 500,000 cars, which I guess is the big question mark.
An owner only needs to generate $31.50/day to earn a 5% annual return over 5 years (and come on, a normal car depreciates 60%, or -17% annually, over 5 years) so with the variables above, Tesla could keep 48.5% of revenue and earn $6,750 more per car per year. On 500k cars, this is $3.4B/yr on the bottom line that Tesla is giving away to the owners if they only take 30%. It doesn't make sense to me to do that unless Tesla is demand constrained at that point. $3.4B/yr in Tesla's hands will accelerate sustainable energy more than $3.4B in the owners' hands.
I may make a spreadsheet that has these different assumptions as variables so we can all run some sensitivity analysis on them if people are interested. This is somewhat inconsequential now because if anything like either of these scenarios come to fruition, Tesla is going be one of the highest market cap companies in the world, but I would still like to understand the logic behind Elon's comments.
I'm off to dig into other threads that I am not fully caught up on as I would not be surprised to see this has already been discussed. Thanks for any replies.
You have to have signed into Google Hangouts and answer the call.
anyone care to break this down technically and refute it? (that is... if you can get over the negative emotion of it)
Tesla Reports Another Fraudulent Quarter
Tesla Reports Another Fraudulent Quarter
TrendTrader007
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