Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
ok ok ok, raise your hand if you don't think we are going to need solar and storage in the future....that's you too banking/investment companies. Ok, if we all agree we are moving towards that future, who is the leader in these industries.......Tesla, good we agreed again. Ok ok ok, so who likes the way Tesla does business.......crickets........ooooooooh ok, so some of you have a problem with how Tesla runs its house, not the future it is wanting.

SO LET THEM DO IT AND STOP PUSHING THE PRICE DOWN

/and scene....
 
Ever since the merger was announced, SCTY has traded at a 5-30% discount to the merger ratio - indicating that the market thinks there is approximately that much chance that the merger does not succeed.

For SCTY you have to factor in the chance of merger failure plus what the market thinks the price of SCTY/TSLA would be if merger fails (market seems to think SCTY would implode), so this magnifies the arb.
 
To drag this thread a bit closer to its topic: Short-Term Price Movements.

What do we think happens tomorrow (also, do we know *when* the explanation of the financials is coming?)

I'm thinking that given today's inexplicable action, some of the 19.50 or 20.00 strike SCTY options for this week's expiry could look to be monsters tomorrow if SCTY reacts the way I expect it to (by gapping up to close a significant portion of the arb gap).
 
Mod Note:
Some posts moved to purgatory; others deleted.

Moderators receive a LOT of "Reports" from forum members - and usually from the same 4-5 members - about posts they find objectionable; usually calling them FUD or originating from trollers, and most commonly combining both those complaints.

Two IMPORTANT things about the above:

1. Repeated use of the "Report" feature is itself abuse of the system, and it really ties up Moderation. Moderators are aware of the tenor of posts being made. If another poster's input consistently makes you uncomfortable, you can use the "Ignore" feature..HOWEVER, as heretofore made abundantly clear: if you place someone on Ignore, you thereupon forfeit ALL rights to comment to or about that poster, most specifically that you are Ignoring him or her. There are ZERO exceptions permitted.

2. Days where TSLA's market price suffers are days where the tenor of this thread, and the Investor Sector in general, turns likewise ugly. It is up to EACH OF YOU to keep the quality of this forum as it has shown it can be.WHEN THE MARKET GOES LOW, YOU GO HIGH. Leave mud-slinging to the politicians.
 
I've only got only circumstantial evidence, but it's my personal theory that the reason for so many major events is that Elon is expecting some large actor to try to sabotage the SolarCity acquisition by driving the stock price below $170.

If someone could drive the stock below $170, they would make a heck of a lot of more money just doing that than any money they would make if the SCTY deal doesn't go through.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: JeffK
Its got nothing to do with the home value of the owner:

The asset is on their roof, leased from SCTY. SCTY owns the equipment for the life of the PPA, and SCTY collects the payments from the power company. The owner's creditworthiness has nothing to do with the risk profile of this equation. The only risk stems from the power company defaulting on the contract, or the financing terms of the debt backing the asset being so bad that it makes the asset pear-shaped. TSLA has good access to enough cheap capital, so that problem isn't a problem. Thus, unless you think the utility is going to default on their end of the contract, there is no risk.
.

To whom the home owner pays and why is it good for him/her to get Solar City's panels on the roof?
 
Ok, I will raise my hand.
I have had solar electric and water heating (for pool use) for ages.

Why do I need electric storage? My system is sized to use what I generate plus or minus a little.
yeah, I don't have time to give you all the reasons that have been described on here before. I've been studied the industry for four years on an almost daily basis. Please go here and read articles from 4 years ago to today to understand why we need it.

Green Tech Media
 
  • Like
Reactions: everman
I've only got only circumstantial evidence, but it's my personal theory that the reason for so many major events is that Elon is expecting some large actor to try to sabotage the SolarCity acquisition by driving the stock price below $170.

Maybe, but don't think this is a real concern. Elon still has some cards held that he could play - like releasing updated model 3 numbers that show around 500k reservations. Or releasing reservations/deposits for powerwall 2, announcing major powerpack 2 contracts, 100D release, positive updates on AP 2.0 progress... Many of these wont shoot the stock up but they will win news cycles and are positive, so hold ground at least.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LargeHamCollider
Could you elaborate on how this edge is set up?
It's in their 10-Q and 10-K. From their latest 10-Q

In November 2015, we implemented a program to hedge the foreign currency exposure risk related to cert ain forecasted inventory purchases denominated in Japanese yen. The derivative instruments we use are foreign currency forward contracts and are designated as cash flow hedges with maturity dates of 12 months or less. We do not enter into derivative contra cts for trading or speculative purposes. We document each hedge relationship and assess its initial effectiveness at the inception of the hedge contract and we measure its ongoing effectiveness on a quarterly basis using regression analysis. During the ter m of an effective hedge contract, we record gains and losses within accumulated other comprehensive loss. We reclassify these gains or losses to costs of automotive sales in the period the related finished goods inventory is sold or over the depreciation p eriod for those sales accounted for as leases. Although our contracts are considered effective hedges, we may experience small amounts of ineffectiveness due to timing differences between our actual inventory purchases and the settlement date of the relate d foreign currency forward contracts. Ineffectiveness related to the hedges is immaterial as of June 30, 2016. As of June 30, 2016 we had recorded a cumulative gain of $ 38.3 million to AOCI related to our outstanding foreign currency cash flow hedges. If t he U.S. dollar had strengthened by 10% as of June 30, 2016, the gain recorded in AOCI related to our cumulative foreign exchange contracts before tax effect would have been reduced by approximately $ 22.4 million .

Looks like I imagined that $300M amount. Or maybe the filing I read was quite some time ago and they stopped reporting the total amount.
 
Solarcity installed solar panel for 300,000 homes year-to-date (source is solarcity twitter page). Maybe by eoy could be higher, but let's just use 300K hypothetically.

Intake of Powerwall 2:
50% intake: 150K x ($5500 X 1.5 (some homes might use more than 1 powerwall) + $1000 (installation)) =$1.4B revenue
25% intake: $700M revenue

Elon said Residential 1/3, Utility 2/3. So Powerpack 2 should be able to bring in $2-3B revenue next year, combined $4B revenue from Tesla Energy next year potentially.. Pretty cray imo, contingent on execution ofc.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TMSE
ummm. Homeowner has to pay someone. Otherwise he/she would get free electricity.
No. The panels generate electricity metered separately from the homeowner's usage. Homeowner continues to pay the power company for their usage (in some cases with a small discount). SCTY gets the money from the generation for 20 years, and then the homeowner can use whatever life is left in the panels.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.