If the price deviates too far from the price at the time of the offer, shareholders might reject the offer. Also, if Tesla falls to $170 the deal is nullified. There are other conditions that I'll let you find by yourself.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
If the price deviates too far from the price at the time of the offer, shareholders might reject the offer. Also, if Tesla falls to $170 the deal is nullified. There are other conditions that I'll let you find by yourself.
Yes, people can and do buy solar panels from other suppliers. Also 300,000 have bought from SolarCity making them the largest installer in the US. Not mutually exclusive. However it looks like going forward SolarCity will be preferred in the U.S. for Powerwall 2.0 and solar roof products. Pretty good position.
I don't Tesla is aiming for the 2bdr US house as the initial case for Powerwall 2.0 so I don't think this is a valid point. Think 4bdr house in an upscale neighborhood. Kind of the ones where many model S and model X cars reside now. Energy consumption is much higher than average. No reason that the first rounds of a product need to satisfy everyone in the market.
racer26
Active Member
They do. Many Tesla owners already have solar on their homes, acquired from SCTY or another source. Either way, if it is a logical place for Tesla's customers to go as a next step, then it follows for it to be a logical place for Tesla to go as a next step. If my customers all want the same ancillary product once they've bought my flagship product, why should I let them buy it from someone else when I could instead become a one-stop shop?
It begets questions of storage for obvious reasons. As someone who said you own solar panels, I'm flabbergasted that you can ask such ridiculous questions. Do your solar panels produce electricity for you at night? How do you continue to run your electrical gizmos at night when they don't? How do you pay for that electricity you use at night? I assume you're on one of any number of net metering schemes where you pay for the excess you do not produce, or the power company pays you if you're a net producer. Either way, such schemes treat the grid as though it is an unlimited capacity battery. This is not true, and completely not the case.
When power is generated and put onto the grid, the generating station runs at some nameplate capacity, lets say 100MW. If the load on the grid is exactly 100MW, then everything is fine.
If the load placed on the grid by the end users totals 80MW, then you have 20MW of excess that has to be bled off. It doesn't magically stay there for later (unless you have utility-scale storage in the system a la PowerPack), and if you don't bleed it off (usually with big resistors to ground converting it to heat) then it will damage equipment.
If the load on the grid by the end users is 120MW, then you have an overload condition, which will lead to brownouts where all customers don't get enough juice (and voltage sags) or (more likely, as that condition is dangerous to end users and their equipment, so power companies don't allow it) rolling blackouts, where the extra 20MW of users get cut off and get no power.
This is a simple example - the real grid has many generating stations (and solar is adding many more) and many users, and the numbers are bigger, but the principle is the same. The real grid has baseload plants, and peaker plants. Baseload plants are like the 100MW plant in the above example, they are slow to start up and run optimally at one speed, generating a constant amount of power. Nuclear plants are a great example. The CANDU6 reactors at the Pickering generating station near me are rated at 660MW each. When they're running, that's what they run at, and there isn't a way to make them only generate 330MW if that's what you need. Since these plants can't respond to changes in demand for power quickly, the grid also has peaker plants. Peaker plants are smaller, more agile plants that can react to changes in the total grid load quickly, but at the cost of poor efficiency and greater cost.
The load placed on the grid by users varies throughout the day and with the seasons. In the summer, in hot climates, solar power is a pretty decent match - Solar makes the most power at high noon, right when everyone is maxing out their air conditioners. In cold climates in the winter, not so much - solar still makes the most power at high noon, but the highest demand is in the morning and evening when users need their lights on because its dark outside, and they're heating the building (some of them with electricity). The power companies around the world are increasingly trying to change their customers habits with time-of-use billing. I pay more for electricity I use during peak times, and so maybe I choose to not do my laundry until off-peak times. If you want to use solar power as your primary generation source (and I believe we will ultimately get there someday in the not-too-distant future) then you need some way to store the power you generate for use during the time that you can't generate. This is also true for wind and other renewable energy sources. They don't align with the load pattern, and so you need some way to shift the load in time - storage.
Eventually, the power company is going to stop allowing you to treat the grid like its a big battery, because it isn't, and solar will eventually reach a point where if they continued allowing everyone to do that, they'd be buying electricity from you just to burn it up in those resistors I talked about above.
It is a valid point since that was the price point they started at $6.5k in the presentation. That is only enough for a 2 bedroom house and only for lights, outlets and refrigerator.
A 4 bedroom house requires 3 powerwalls, for $17k for a bit more than the average household usage (40 vs. 30kwh), but it doesn't appear that that is enough to also charge up 2 cars, so you should add at least 1 more powerwall.
But again, even having 4 powerwalls, you also have to then have enough of a solar system to provide that much more than your daily needs to charge up the units in the first place. Why bother?
I get that people may want it to be a backup to unreliable energy, but why spend $23k or more for those batteries if you live in an upscale neighborhood?
I am sorry if this was discussed in the 30 pages written over the weekend, but briefly: Where do we think these solar tiles will be manufactured? The New York plant? Or is it a third party (3M?) using Solarcity active components?
why don't you follow what Univ Delaware has been doing since 2011 using ~38 mini coopers as a battery pack for a V2G for -->frequency regulation<-- that they get paid for as a pilot project with parts of PJM (pennsylvania, jersey, maryland) interconnect
why don't you follow what the Australians are doing with a VPP using PV and aggregated battery banks
I have been a very small IPP (independent power producer) since 1999 pushing electrons to the grid
I try to post positive developments that can help both Tesla, TSLA, stock prices, albiet more longer term etc than short term
you should also
racer26
Active Member
The price in the offer is irrelevant, because it isn't a price, its a ratio - the dollar value of $24.16 expressed in the offer is simply an example of what value the ratio reflected at the time of writing. As of the time I write this, the ratio in the deal corresponds to TSLA offering $21.75 per SCTY - a healthy premium over SCTY's current price. The RATIO of TSLA to SCTY is what is important, and yes, if it deviates too far from the 0.11 TSLA/SCTY that was offered, the shareholders of one or both companies should reject the offer as a bad deal.
Yes, if TSLA falls to 170, the deal is nullified (presumably because either TSLA doesn't want to issue new shares at such a price, or its being assumed that such a fall implies the ratio has fallen sufficiently out of whack).
You've basically fallen back to "THERE'S STILL WAYS IT COULD FALL APART" when all we were saying was that your statements about the merger value being a ratio were demonstrably wrong.
With the recent Panasonic announcement, NY seems to be more focused on panels than tiles.
My guess is another third party facility in partnership with someone like 3M.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Yes, and yes. Panasonic in NY, using SCTY developed shingles using silevo technology.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I felt so much love today. Let's get the facts straight. I purchased at 178 and sold at 255 last year. When the X was revealed and we were allegedly going into recession (Dec/Jan) I was extremely bearish, and right. I didn't comment on the rally afterwards and purchased B4 the merger talk at 232.00. So at no point was I talking the stock down for my own benefit. As far as a contrarian indicator.....I have chosen to hold now come hell or high water. So don't look at me to throw the towel in. It isn't going g to happen.
The stand up thing would've been to come back and admit the mistake and thank you guys for pointing out the error. Instead you get:
It looks like @MP3Mike knows what the filing says and maybe you need to brush up on reading it?
Got a call back from SCTY today re my solar roof inquiry. They put me on the waitlist but the sales guy did not have any details on timing/price beyond what we heard from Elon Musk on Friday.
Looking forward to learning more -- have an old wood shake roof and no solar company will touch it so this should be a great option for me.
racer26
Active Member
A house doesn't require any particular number of powerwalls just based on its size. It depends entirely on what you plan to DO with those powerwalls.
If you just plan to have battery backup to protect yourself against grid failures, its a function of how much load you have (or are willing to cut in such emergencies - perhaps you don't need the hot tub running in a blackout and can get by with the lights and fridge) and how long of a blackout do you want to be able to stay up through? The longest blackout in my lifetime was in 2003, at 3-5 days depending on where you were. Living in an upscale neighborhood didn't help you when 25%+ of the country went dark.
If you plan to use it to shift on-peak usage to off-peak usage, you need to know how much usage you plan to shift every day.
If you plan to use it to go off grid, it needs to be sized to the worst case, of several days of below average generation and above average usage at night strung together.
For most people, it will be some combination of the above forces, and for most people's use, 1 powerwall is enough.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I don't believe this invalidates anything in your excellent post, but you left out ."load following plants".
The reason I'm pointing that one is that quite a few people are unaware of those and sometimes that does invalidate their analysis:
Load following power plant - Wikipedia
racer26
Active Member
Fair enough - you learn something new every day. I was unaware of this subset of plant types, although its really just a more-efficient slightly slower peaker, as far as the explanation of how the grid works I offered.
Sparky,
Thanks a lot for sharing a treasure trove of information! I find your other comments on another thread very relevant too in this regard.
Now, consider this: Not too long ago we were discussing several patents granted recently to SolarCity. We were even speculating on how the new roof would look based on the pictures first and last page of the announcement document.
I was under the impression that the demo was the culmination of something that had been under works for a long time at SolarCity. But, your discussion with the 3M folks clarifies that this is something that was put together hastily just a few weeks ago, including the concept. Does it mean Tesla/SolarCity are not incorporating those patents into this new solar product?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Thinking about this more I've reached a tentative conclusion.
There are three remaining reasons:
1. SCTY merger financial concerns.
2. Merger approval .
3. The market is deluded.
We'll probably know the proportions on either November 2 or November 18.
There are three remaining reasons:
1. SCTY merger financial concerns.
2. Merger approval .
3. The market is deluded.
We'll probably know the proportions on either November 2 or November 18.
There is the other obvious one.
4. The market expected/wanted even more.
In the past, Apple has had "blow out earnings" but it wasn't enough of a blow out and the stock either went down or was flat.
When people expect you to change the world, and you only change Pittsburgh, they get disappointed, even if the changes in Pittsburgh are great.
Aren't the panels and auxiliaries SCTY's but leased 20 years by the homeowner? Aren't the PPAs between SCTY and the homeowners in which the latter buy whatever energy they consume at contractual rates with escalators from SCTY, and SCTY sells the panels' output to the local utilities at spot market rates?
I've never had a "30 yr" asphalt shingle roof last more than 18 years before numerous leaks required replacement, several were much sooner. IIRC, SCTY's financial projections were that about a quarter of those leases would renew for years 21-30 (the presumed lifetime of the panels.) Solar leases may be the only industry impervious to early obsolescence from new technology, or not.
"Trippin" Trip Chowdhry delivers the laughs once again,
Tesla's Powerwall 2 Home Battery Unit Represents An $88 Billion Opportunity, Says Trip Chowdhry|(NASDAQ:TSLA)
Tesla's Powerwall 2 Home Battery Unit Represents An $88 Billion Opportunity, Says Trip Chowdhry|(NASDAQ:TSLA)
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
