Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[N5329K]

I kind of doubt this election will turn out to be a positive in any way for Tesla. Tax rebates? Zero emissions credits? It seems at least possible if not outright likely for them to vanish. Perhaps even before the first Model 3's are rolled out.
I wonder what the Tesla Motors business model looks like absent those key pieces. Consider for a moment how many electrons have died in the discussions, calculations and expectations here concerning "will I get my full $7500?"
Robin

 

[pGo]

Icahn on Bloomberg talked about EPA deregulations. The discussion directly is related in Tesla territory.Looks like the goal of the new government is to increase oil supply from local sources and through keystone pipelines. Icahn says refiners are a no brained investment now. Regulations around fracking will be removed as well.

Next two years with house me senate in pocket, it could change a lot of equations.

 

[Ulmo]

Which quarter does Hawaiian islands projects get reported for SCTY earnings?

 

[Turing]

Icahn on Bloomberg talked about EPA deregulations. The discussion directly is related in Tesla territory.Looks like the goal of the new government is to increase oil supply from local sources and through keystone pipelines. Icahn says refiners are a no brained investment now. Regulations around fracking will be removed as well.

Next two years with house me senate in pocket, it could change a lot of equations.

How does this change much? Oil is already cheap, so then the US exports more oil?

 

[EarlyAdopter]

The single biggest heart palpitation the fx world has received in my lifetime and one of the greatest in many generations was the mouth-drop that last night's victor spilled about two months ago, this concerning whether the US would honor its debt commitments or open them for negotiations. That it could be possible the USofA might not stand behind US Treasury notes with full faith and credit runs counter to two centuries of policy; like it or not that belief is the foundation, sub-basement, load-bearing walls and roof of the global economy.

I think - and I hope I am not whistling past the graveyard here - that moment has passed and HWIWNN was quickly corrected of that inconceivable gaffe even by the terrible people who are his economic advisers. So, having put that aside,

I don't think we can so easily put this aside. This is precisely the elephant in the room and my primary concern on the future of the USD.

Right now, all we have to go on is what Trump has said and what he has done in the past, and on this topic things don't look good. In addition to this statement, we have to look at how he has conducted his business with respect to debt. He has on 6 occasions defaulted on his own business debt obligations. This is a long-running pattern and speaks to how he views debt - something to run up and then throw away when expedient.

Even if he should never go through with this nuclear option, the fact that he would even suggest it undermines faith in the US willingness to fulfill its debt obligations. That increases risk to holders of US treasuries. This means either interest rates have to move higher to price in that risk, or we have to print more money to buy our own debt at low interest rates as no one else will (i.e. hyper-inflation).

Combine this with Trump plans to invest in infrastructure (the one silver lining I see in his presidency, but it will cost $ and require more debt), grow the military (a position I don't understand given that spending on US military is already at an all-time high), and cut taxes, I can't see any scenario under which US debt doesn't balloon, we print more money, and the dollar plummets. Relative to what is my question, and I guess I have my answer - gold. Never been a fan of precious metals, but here we are.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Obama changed his position on climate change. Not inconceivable that trump can change too. Relax.

In Peter Thiel we trust. Here's hoping he has Trump's ear.

 

[TMSE]

Called it !!!!! Told you so.

What did you call out and when?

Just FYI.. The lone tech tycoon supporter of Trump is Peter Thiel, who is a great supporter of Elon and everything he does. Have you read 'Zero-to-one' by Peter? Read it and see how many times he refers to Elon adoringly.

Tesla is a great American company creating thousands of jobs right here. It will benefit from low corporate income tax just like any other company.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

I kind of doubt this election will turn out to be a positive in any way for Tesla. Tax rebates? Zero emissions credits? It seems at least possible if not outright likely for them to vanish. Perhaps even before the first Model 3's are rolled out.
I wonder what the Tesla Motors business model looks like absent those key pieces. Consider for a moment how many electrons have died in the discussions, calculations and expectations here concerning "will I get my full $7500?"
Robin

That tax credit came from the Bush administration, so not a given that a new Republican administration would reverse this.

Even if they did, it would hurt everyone else far more than Tesla, who is planning on making the Model 3 cost competitive with ICE cars with the assumption of the credit phasing out soon after its release anyhow. GM and everyone else is at a far greater disadvantage.

 

[Yggdrasill]

That tax credit came from the Bush administration, so not a given that a new Republican administration would reverse this.

Even if they did, it would hurt everyone else far more than Tesla, who is planning on making the Model 3 cost competitive with ICE cars with the assumption of the credit phasing out soon after its release anyhow. GM and everyone else is at a far greater disadvantage.

I would group GM with Tesla on this, they're the ones who stand to benefit from axing the tax credits. GM has used up a similar number of tax credits as Tesla, on the Volt.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

I would group GM with Tesla on this, they're the ones who stand to benefit from axing the tax credits. GM has used up a similar number of tax credits as Tesla, on the Volt.

The Bolt simply is not cost competitive vs. ICE without the tax credit. Furthermore, the battery, drivetrain, inverter, control logic, and infotainment system all are supplied by LG. USD vs. Korean Won could be a second headwind for GM.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Just a FYI Tump isn't in office yet. Let's not get carried away and maintain this level of FUD.

Dow up over +150 from -750 last night. Maybe things not as bad as you believe.

We (most of us) are invested in a company that has endured worse and came out stronger.

Treat today as a fire sale and load some up. My guess is we will see even lower than the current price so always have cash ready.

 

[Turing]

I don't think we can so easily put this aside. This is precisely the elephant in the room and my primary concern on the future of the USD.

Right now, all we have to go on is what Trump has said and what he has done in the past, and on this topic things don't look good. In addition to this statement, we have to look at how he has conducted his business with respect to debt. He has on 6 occasions defaulted on his own business debt obligations. This is a long-running pattern and speaks to how he views debt - something to run up and then throw away when expedient.

Even if he should never go through with this nuclear option, the fact that he would even suggest it undermines faith in the US willingness to fulfill its debt obligations. That increases risk to holders of US treasuries. This means either interest rates have to move higher to price in that risk, or we have to print more money to buy our own debt at low interest rates as no one else will (i.e. hyper-inflation).

Combine this with Trump plans to invest in infrastructure (the one silver lining I see in his presidency, but it will cost $ and require more debt), grow the military (a position I don't understand given that spending on US military is already at an all-time high), and cut taxes, I can't see any scenario under which US debt doesn't balloon, we print more money, and the dollar plummets. Relative to what is my question, and I guess I have my answer - gold. Never been a fan of precious metals, but here we are.

Out of all the potential negatives that Trump could do, messing with debt payments is the least likeliest imo. Sure he made a dumb comment, but every single voice around him will explain why that is dumb and he can't do it and btw it will ruin his presidency and make him look like a fool in front of the whole world. I'm fairly confident Trump will outsource most of the real decisions of his presidency. He can sit back and play chairman of board and get all the attention he desires.

 

[GoTslaGo]

What did you call out and when?

Just FYI.. The lone tech tycoon supporter of Trump is Peter Thiel, who is a great supporter of Elon and everything he does. Have you read 'Zero-to-one' by Peter? Read it and see how many times he refers to Elon adoringly.

Tesla is a great American company creating thousands of jobs right here. It will benefit from low corporate income tax just like any other company.

IIRC he called out 185 by the end of the year, because he wanted to buy in.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The Bolt simply is not cost competitive vs. ICE without the tax credit. Furthermore, the battery, drivetrain, inverter, control logic, and infotainment system all are supplied by LG. USD vs. Korean Won could be a second headwind for GM.

Maybe so, but it should be easier for GM to compete with the Bolt at 37,500 USD vs a 35,000 USD car from a competitor where there are no tax credits, than for the 37,500 USD Bolt to go up against that same car at 27,500 USD including tax credit. GM will likely run out of credits late 2017/early 2018.

 

[30seconds]

Here we go

Trump Picks Top Climate Skeptic to Lead EPA Transition

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Out of all the potential negatives that Trump could do, messing with debt payments is the least likeliest imo. Sure he made a dumb comment, but every single voice around him will explain why that is dumb and he can't do it and btw it will ruin his presidency and make him look like a fool in front of the whole world. I'm fairly confident Trump will outsource most of the real decisions of his presidency. He can sit back and play chairman of board and get all the attention he desires.

He doesn't have to mess with the debt payments, just simply rattle some sabers, make another dumb statement, and the core tenant of US Treasuries is undermined. Do you want to bet that he can hold a filter on that for 4 years?

 

[tander]

Which quarter does Hawaiian islands projects get reported for SCTY earnings?

I don't know, probably the quarter that is was finished/paid for. Was that q3 or q4? They have been aiming to have a big, and possibly profitable, and likely cashflow+ q4. q3 has some potential for upset by they still guided for about a 2.5 per share loss, so it's confusing. I think either q3 will be surprisingly good because some of the stuff projected for q4 will have actually hit in q3, or q3 won't be that great and they will project for a good q4. Hope that is a little helpful.

Anybody know if they are planning a conference call for today? No sign of it on solarcity or tesla website as far I can see.

 

[Value Ev]

What did you call out and when?

Just FYI.. The lone tech tycoon supporter of Trump is Peter Thiel, who is a great supporter of Elon and everything he does. Have you read 'Zero-to-one' by Peter? Read it and see how many times he refers to Elon adoringly.

Tesla is a great American company creating thousands of jobs right here. It will benefit from low corporate income tax just like any other company.

Exactly.

And when the Trump makes America great again, more people will be able to afford the 3 or even the S and X which will be a huge demand lever for Tesla!

Also, does Tesla have much cash overseas? If they do, they would greatly benefit from an repatriation programs!

It is all upside for Tesla. A strong Tesla is good for America and a strong America is good for Tesla.

 

[ggies07]

Here we go

Trump Picks Top Climate Skeptic to Lead EPA Transition

That article is from September.....most of us should have known about that already....I did. It's not new.

 

[AudubonB]

I don't think we can so easily put this aside.<===That wasn't me! In fact, I state unequivocally one cannot put it aside. This is precisely the elephant in the room and my primary concern on the future of the USD.

Right now, all we have to go on is what Trump has said and what he has done in the past, and on this topic things don't look good. In addition to this statement, we have to look at how he has conducted his business with respect to debt. He has on 6 occasions defaulted on his own business debt obligations. This is a long-running pattern and speaks to how he views debt - something to run up and then throw away when expedient.

Even if he should never go through with this nuclear option, ===>the fact that he would even suggest it undermines faith in the US<====Precisely. This more than everything else is why the entire rest of the world today is looking on in horror...or in glee. willingness to fulfill its debt obligations. That increases risk to holders of US treasuries. This means either interest rates have to move higher to price in that risk, or we have to print more money to buy our own debt at low interest rates as no one else will (i.e. hyper-inflation).<===With this, however, I disagree. The Battleship USA can plow on for quite some more time without bringing upon hyperinflation. Very likely at least through the next four years, and, if re-elected, possibly through an 8-year term. Regardless, it is terribly weakening of the nation's socioeconomic fabric, even if the short-term effects of the new administration bring upon a brief rise in economic activity.

Combine this with Trump plans to invest in infrastructure (the one silver lining I see in his presidency, but it will cost $ and require more debt), grow the military (a position I don't understand given that spending on US military is already at an all-time high), and cut taxes, I can't see any scenario under which US debt doesn't balloon, we print more money, and the dollar plummets. Relative to what is my question, and I guess I have my answer - gold. Never been a fan of precious metals, but here we are.

And I'll use the rest of this post to offer my take on the Big Picture effects of last night:

Given the very long track record he has in his business dealings, in his rhetoric, and in his social actions, the terrible irony of last night's outcomes is that those segments of the population who supported him most and upon whose shoulders he was elected are those who will suffer the most in the years to come.