Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[SebastianR]

On the future of Solar (vs. Coal, Natural Gas, Nuclear etc.): If one is to believe Toni Seba, we are heading towards solar becoming cheaper than the cost of energy transmission. At that point, it is game over for any other source of electricity: everything but solar would simply be more expensive than local solar installations.

Precisely for this reason, I'm so happy with the outcomes of the Florida/Nevada votes.

If the fundamental economics behind the technology are the way Toni Seba (and others) describe them and if both the Gigafactories (Solar in Buffalo and Battery in Nevada) are getting us to this point faster, I don't really see a gutted EPA do any harm on the energy front. Would I have wanted to see this cost curve go down a bit further before this election? Sure! But as I mentioned earlier, I'm starting to get pretty confident that the fundamental costs have shifted enough to make this one a winner (unless someone would get the idea to massively subsidise coal+oil+gas - which would really be silly).

 

[jgillispie]

Off the topic of the political changes...Google Finance has this on the Tesla calendar -

Tesla Motors Inc at Robert W Baird Global Industrial Conference. Anything interesting come of out that in the past?

 

[tander]

Off the topic of the political changes...Google Finance has this on the Tesla calendar -

Tesla Motors Inc at Robert W Baird Global Industrial Conference. Anything interesting come of out that in the past?

Could you provide a link? I don't see that in my google feed. Good find though, yes sometimes they are worth listening to, but it's hard to get access if you don't have an account with them. Ben Kallo, their Tesla analyst has been one of the more bullish ones over the years. Does it say what day they are scheduled for?

 

[jgillispie]

Tesla Motors Inc: NASDAQ:TSLA quotes & news - Google Finance
It's listed on the side with the events. I'll do some more checking for details. Says 5pm Eastern.

 

[Value Ev]

And I'll use the rest of this post to offer my take on the Big Picture effects of last night:

the terrible irony of last night's outcomes is that those segments of the population who supported him most and upon whose shoulders he was elected are those who will suffer the most in the years to come.

Maybe that will happen, maybe not.
But we do know that having your biggest supporters significantly suffer is not a new phenomenon.

2009: Percent of blacks in poverty: 26.2%, labor participation rate: 63.2%
2015: Percent of blacks in poverty: 27.4%, labor participation rate: 61.2% (8/16)

 

[Roger t]

Long term wise, Elon's vision of solar panel charging and M3 at $35000 has to make economic sense without subsidy. Trump's election does not change that. Tesla has strategic interests in low electricity cost, solar just happens to be the right solution. Interestingly Trump actually make Solarcity acquisition more attractive on both sides. It is a common approach to achieve lowest installation cost through scale and vertical integration.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Stocks with largest short values at IB as of 11/7:

That is all.

 

[AudubonB]

Maybe that will happen, maybe not.
But we do know that having your biggest supporters significantly suffer is not a new phenomenon.

2009: Percent of blacks in poverty: 26.2%, labor participation rate: 63.2%
2015: Percent of blacks in poverty: 27.4%, labor participation rate: 61.2% (8/16)

Let me know what those figures would have been had there been a non-obstructionist Congress over the past eight years and we have some room for a conversation. Until then, there are no grounds to proceed.

Back to Tesla and TSLA: its performance today has been as expected. Not so bad as the pure PV manufacturers, including but definitely not limited to the Chinese ones; not so good as heavy manufacturers like CAT and DE....and especially not so good as the who truly would have felt the wrath of a Clinton administration, the pharmaceuticals.

I'm surprised at the trading volume - going into the last half hour TSLA's is twice normal, at ~7mm shares. Perhaps Papafox has a handle on shorting/covering action today?

 

[FredTMC]

The $7500 Fed Tax credit will be sunsetiing by 2018 anyway regardless if congress eliminates it.

So... what other ways can a Trump presidency slow down Tesla?

Not allowing stores in certain states? You can buy thru the internet. I can't think of many other ways.

People are still gonna buy teslas. They love em.

Solar credits are likely going away but solar continues to get cheaper.

 

[jgillispie]

The $7500 Fed Tax credit will be sunsetiing by 2018 anyway regardless if congress eliminates it.

So... what other ways can a Trump presidency slow down Tesla?
.

Eliminating grants and federal money for renewable R & D. How much that would affect Tesla is unclear but the full sector could see less money coming it's way.

 

[Turing]

Solar credits are likely going away but solar continues to get cheaper.

Why are they going away, didn't a republican congress just extend them?

 

[racer26]

Anybody have any links for the SCTY stuff we're supposed to get at market close today?

Don't see anything on Investor Relations - SolarCity

 

[FredTMC]

Why are they going away, didn't a republican congress just extend them?

Yes. I think so. Not sure if trump administration will look to undo it

 

[racer26]

Yes. I think so. Not sure if trump administration will look to undo it

I have to believe that congress simply won't allow Trump to do many of the more provocative things he promised, (ie. tear up NAFTA).

 

[Turing]

Yes. I think so. Not sure if trump administration will look to undo it

Unless Sheldon Adelson .et al calls in a big favor I don't see why Trump would go out of his way to do this when even the GOP congress already valued it enough to extend them.

 

[ruralectric]

I'm not seeing anything on ss website re earnings call. But I'm on my phone. Anyone have a link? The call was supposed to be today, right? Sorry if this has already been addressed.

 

[AudubonB]

Sheldon Adelson voted, as has been his norm, with his pocketbook this election: he did not contribute meaningfully, contrary to what he said he'd do.

From yesterday morning's Bloomberg:

Sheldon Adelson. Earlier this year, the New York Times reported the Las Vegas casino mogul offered to spend as much as $100 million on Trump. Trump and his team occasionally bragged about the offer. Adelson and his wife actually spent at least $10 million on Trump, and possibly more -- but nowhere near $100 million.

Full article here: Trump’s Big-Money Cavalry Never Rode to His Rescue

 

[Ulmo]

Earnings - SolarCity still says "Quarterly Results are not available for Third Quarter 2016.", but now the website just stopped working.

 

[gene]

Yes. I think so. Not sure if trump administration will look to undo it

About the extension of the ITC. My memory was the ITC was extended as a way to gain support for the USA to export oil. Previously, the USA was not allowed to export our own oil. Is it possible to cancel the ITC yet leave oil exports intact? Meaning can 1/2 of the agreement be cancelled?

 

[Lessmog]

I'm not seeing anything on ss website re earnings call. But I'm on my phone. Anyone have a link? The call was supposed to be today, right? Sorry if this has already been addressed.

I have auto-alerts to my mail. Nothing there as yet. Will douse lights and shut eyes in ten though, been a long day!