Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Value Ev]

Your comment has nothing to do with my comment and doesn't make sense. "Pencils down" date has nothing to do with what options will be available or what the final product will cost. Tesla won't release pricing until close to production to minimize any effect on Model S and Model X sales.

Yes, I know that.

But you claimed that the final reveal (the interior) being 3 months out is a possible indicator that production is ahead of schedule.

Nor does it mean that the specifics of the pricing and options will be part of the final reveal - at least if you follow what happened with the X and S.

The options, the pricing, the design (after "pencils down"), doesn't have anything to do with the production schedule.

 

[Value Ev]

Okay Google. Time for you to take aim at and give a warning to Marketwatch for being a fake news website.

This article was published around 8-9am today. What type of schenanigans allow it to get republished purely so it can get to the top of the market feed and receive a few thousand extra clicks?

Also, everything in this "article" is nonsense. The lawsuits are basically moot. Shareholders have spoken and overwhelmingly agree the merger makes sense.

The only lawsuit that actually had a plaintiff was accusing Elon of using the merger as a gimmick to bailout SolarCity because he owns a lot of it.

The other lawsuits, as best as I could tell, didn't have a plaintiff, or were thrown out.


Next for Tesla and SolarCity: The lawsuits

What is fake about this?

Of course it is relevant, it doesn't matter if 85% voted for it, there are the 15% who did not.

There is also the lawsuit from the other company about some IP issues, has that been settled?

I agree that "The lawsuits are moot" since "moot" means "subject to debate"

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

What is fake about this?

Of course it is relevant, it doesn't matter if 85% voted for it, there are the 15% who did not.

There is also the lawsuit from the other company about some IP issues, has that been settled?

I agree that "The lawsuits are moot" since "moot" means "subject to debate"

It's a blog website that rehashes old or biased/ incorrect information pretending a news website. It's basically SA with a bit more credibility.

Any website that allows its writers to republish an article to get more clicks isn't a real news website and exists to game Google and other sources of ad revenue.

Even SA refuses to republish an article if the writer makes a significant change to an article that is published!

 

[oneday]

I agree that "The lawsuits are moot" since "moot" means "subject to debate"

In this context it means:
2. of little or no practical value, meaning, or relevance; purely academic:

 

[MitchJi]

Supposedly, tesla ordered parts for up to 300 cars. Love to see some getting built

Hopefully on the assembly line, or partial assembly line. I'm not sure about this, would they build 300 prototypes by hand? If they build them on a production line that could be a short term catalyst.

It seems to me, looking back at Tesla history, that every particular time period was the 'most important' ... Tesla has consistently grown through pretty constant risky periods.

I don't think it's a risky period, but a transformational period. By the summer of 2018 they'll be profitably cranking out big volumes of TE, M3's and Solar tiles and panels. Plus probably 150k or more of MS-MX. That's like a different company. Plus working on GF 2 in Europe, probably with Solar panel and tile production.

Note:
2019 LEAPS are gold.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Yes, I know that.

But you claimed that the final reveal (the interior) being 3 months out is a possible indicator that production is ahead of schedule.

Nor does it mean that the specifics of the pricing and options will be part of the final reveal - at least if you follow what happened with the X and S.

The options, the pricing, the design (after "pencils down"), doesn't have anything to do with the production schedule.

Tesla won't release specifications/ price info until close to production to minimize impact on Model S and Model X sales. Elon has said or hinted at this many times.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

In this context it means:
2. of little or no practical value, meaning, or relevance; purely academic:

One of the best posts of the year.

 

[MitchJi]

Tesla won't release specifications/ price info until close to production to minimize impact on Model S and Model X sales. Elon has said or hinted at this many times.

Which means that the M3 reveal part 3, in three or four months won't be the final reveal.

 

[Irishjugg]

I also have SCTY 2019 in the money Calls. I want to see how will these be converted to Tesla's Calls.

Were these ITM when you purchased them? If so it would have been better to sell OTM puts and the equivalent amount of stock as you would have gotten a much better price for the same actual position.

 

[Thumper]

IMHO recent election's greatest danger to TSLA isn't direct but from a major macro jolt due to gross incompetence/ignorance.

 

[oneday]

Which means that the M3 reveal part 3, in three or four months won't be the final reveal.

I suspect that reveal 4 will include actual deliveries to Tesla and SpaceX employees and the unveiling of the M3 design studio.

 

[CaliBear1]

The #1 biggest catalyst coming up is first cell production coming out of the Gigafactory. Matter of fact, the more I look at it, the more I am convinced that the PowerWall 2 pricing comes directly from the Gigafactory operations. The initial batch of products might be from outside sources, but really, PowerWall 2 in Q1 and Q2 is about the ramp of the Gigafactory. I haven't really looked at the PowerPack 2, partially since we don't actually have good numbers for PowerPack 2 in quantity versus retail.

In other words, it might be that Gigafactory becomes operational for cell output in December, and certainly by January. No more can it be called a gigglefactory by the shorts. And all that capex will finally start bringing in some serious revenue.

Coming up right after that is Q4 delivery numbers, and thus far things appear robust. That includes the AP2 related ASP and gross margin bumps, as well as increased Model X mix. It is interesting for me to watch FX issues, especially that the cells from Japan are getting cheaper again (and conversely, selling overseas is more expensive). The difference between yen weakness and euro weakness is interesting to me.

We then start to get PowerWall 2 installs, which should be very interesting in places like Hawaii and Australia amongst other places.

Somewhere after that is the start of the awakening of AP2.

And then we get Q4 ER.

And then we start to really see Model 3 ramp evidence... Fremont factory changes, Model 3 additional reveals, etc. By the time we get into summer, we'll have a much better idea of how the TE ramp is going as well as how the Model 3 ramp is going. All of this before the Tesla Buffalo plant comes online. I suspect the initial volume product out of there is traditional solar panels, but with combined Silevo/Panasonic technology. The cell creation is first... and it is easiest to put it into traditional panels.

We are about to have a very interesting 9 months ahead... lots of risk, lots of potential upside.

The ICE Death Star is almost fully operational? ;-)

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

When I stated the Tesla Fleet option would make the Model 3 basically free, the trolls on here said Elon was being unrealiastic or crazy, or that I was crazy for thinking this.

Apparently Model S/X owners who rent out their vehicle for 7 days each month on 'Turo' are currently making an avg of $923 a month.

 

[MissAutobahn]

Electrek conveniently just had a collection of recent M3 sightings - it is just the 2 prototypes, but they have been spotted at a few different places/occasions: Tesla Model 3: rare sightings of prototypes that you might have missed

right, very recent pictures. about half a year ago.
Since the beginning, we didn't see any other mules.
I think Tesla is nowadays just incognito underway testing under shorter Model S hoods.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

It's probably worth mentioning that Elon is likely in a strong position in South Korea, especially with Samsung's major structural problems. South Korea desperately needs the type of employment and growth Tesla can provide. I don't think people realize the problems all divisions of Samsung are likely to have in the near future.

Note: The WSJ article that just got published is very misleading. Since most SolarCity shareholders are likely to remain shareholders after the merger, there isn't really much "dilution." Elon explicitely said SolarCity would be a major cash vacuum, not a "cash drain" as the article implies. (I'm including this in this post since I don't see a reason to make this a separate post)

 

[supratachophobia]

Yeah no offense taken. It might be because Tesla so far has produced pretty expensive cars in small quantities. As they get into cheaper higher quantity models it seems like the improvements from self-driving could be big enough that lower rates would be warranted. If you can say that X car gets into 90% fewer accidents and 95% fewer major accidents that seems like it'd be hard to ignore, kind of like non-smokers pay more for health insurance.

Oh I completely agree that that is how it *should* end up. "Driving Car A involves you in 1/10th of the accidents of Car B, so therefore your rates are lower" absolutely makes sense. Just like, "Insure everyone and then no one defaults on medical providers, so therefore prices can be lowered to the actual cost rather than an inflated/adjusted amount to compensate for short-fall." And I suspect we will get there eventually on both, and certainly on auto before healthcare. But it's going to take years of data and lobbying to do so. Guess what? Our insurance companies already have a pretty good idea where all this is heading, but why not fleece us while they can?

 

[dennis]

There is a thread on here for pictures of Model 3 spotted.

Also:

Tesla Model 3: rare sightings of prototypes that you might have missed

And from the article you referenced:

Those two cars remain to this day the only two working prototypes of the Tesla Model 3 spotted so far. That’s despite the fact that we know Tesla has been ordering enough parts from suppliers to build up to 300 prototypes

This means that NO beta prototypes have been seen 7 1/2 months before production is scheduled to begin. Some might conclude that means that Tesla is behind schedule. I think it confirms that Tesla is on a very aggressive schedule that is compressed by traditional auto company standards - just like everything Tesla does.

 

[austinEV]

What we have seen and heard in terms of the roofs is truly remarkable, mind blowing stuff. One of the best gifts for long term investors.

Having said that, I believe market will not give one cent of a credit for any of it in the near term. Tesla will not only have to roll it out but actually show it in the top line and bottom line as material numbers to get any credit. I believe that is probably more than an year away.

Think about it, storage is on the cusp of a take off but market seems to act like it doesn't even exist. The numbers for storage are much more digestible and project'able than this roof stuff. If storage doesn't get any love from market, what luck do we have with roofs?

I agree with this and think it's the most reasonable prediction. Here is the best counter I can think of (just to be contrarian): Currently no value is being given to TE or roofs, both in the pipeline with different horizons. TE is much sooner and could start rolling in profits soon, maybe Q1. If they say in Q1 ER they had substantial top and bottom line growth, good GM, and crazy good guidance... Then TE comes home in valuation. With M3 also mid 2017, suddenly the roofs might get valued as less risky since at that point you have to admit Tesla actually has a good track record.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

And from the article you referenced:

This means that NO beta prototypes have been seen 7 1/2 months before production is scheduled to begin. Some might conclude that means that Tesla is behind schedule. I think it confirms that Tesla is on a very aggressive schedule that is compressed by traditional auto company standards - just like everything Tesla does.

What I should have said is there are plenty of pictures from the Solar Roof event of Model 3 that look noticeably different from the early Model 3 that were revealed. These are likely what the final version will look like. I doubt it was a coincidence Tesla had these vehicles at the event and allowed people to take pictures of them.

Note: I thought there was a thread of pictures showing Model 3 that were spotted in various places. My mistake.

Also, there is no reason to believe Tesla will use the same time frame used for the Model S or the Model X. Elon has very clearly stated Tesla won't reveal the Model 3 details until close to production.

What incentive would Tesla have to increase demand for the Model 3 when the first 1-2 years of production are currently sold out?

 

[Green Pete]

OK. Now that the merger has been approved I feel comfortable asking this.

#TSLA (Tesla Motors Inc.) Short Sellers: Mind the GAAP

Doesn't this mean when Tesla reports in 2017 (not clear if that means Q4 2016 or Q1 2017) that the new rules to GAAP will show Teslas Scty assets as incredibly valuable?

EDIT: I'd really like to hear a reply from someone who knows this better than me, I don't understand why the revisions to GAAP reporting next year is not much bigger news. The whole solar sector should be going up on this news IMO.