Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FredTMC]

The #1 biggest catalyst coming up is first cell production coming out of the Gigafactory. Matter of fact, the more I look at it, the more I am convinced that the PowerWall 2 pricing comes directly from the Gigafactory operations. The initial batch of products might be from outside sources, but really, PowerWall 2 in Q1 and Q2 is about the ramp of the Gigafactory. I haven't really looked at the PowerPack 2, partially since we don't actually have good numbers for PowerPack 2 in quantity versus retail.

In other words, it might be that Gigafactory becomes operational for cell output in December, and certainly by January. No more can it be called a gigglefactory by the shorts. And all that capex will finally start bringing in some serious revenue.

Coming up right after that is Q4 delivery numbers, and thus far things appear robust. That includes the AP2 related ASP and gross margin bumps, as well as increased Model X mix. It is interesting for me to watch FX issues, especially that the cells from Japan are getting cheaper again (and conversely, selling overseas is more expensive). The difference between yen weakness and euro weakness is interesting to me.

We then start to get PowerWall 2 installs, which should be very interesting in places like Hawaii and Australia amongst other places.

Somewhere after that is the start of the awakening of AP2.

And then we get Q4 ER.

And then we start to really see Model 3 ramp evidence... Fremont factory changes, Model 3 additional reveals, etc. By the time we get into summer, we'll have a much better idea of how the TE ramp is going as well as how the Model 3 ramp is going. All of this before the Tesla Buffalo plant comes online. I suspect the initial volume product out of there is traditional solar panels, but with combined Silevo/Panasonic technology. The cell creation is first... and it is easiest to put it into traditional panels.

We are about to have a very interesting 9 months ahead... lots of risk, lots of potential upside.

Nice post. Looking forward to hearing that 2170 cell production has started at the GF. Hopefully December. That would be great.

Also, good to see that Powerpacks are already arriving at the Kauai HI location.
My understanding is both Mira Loma CA and Kauai TE installations are to be completed by end of this year

Once GF is ramping production of 2170 cells, we should begin to hear about more TE commercial & Utility deployment contract awards.

 

[tander]

With the deal closed and no more need to "sell" the vision, I'd just as soon keep the TE cards close to the vest right now. For once, just once, I'd like Tesla to surprise the street with good news that hasn't been overly telegraphed.

All analysts are assigning it very little value. With plenty of TE ramp to assess by the Q4 call in early Feb, I'm expecting separate 2017 TE guidance. If they can point to concrete evidence of their ability to execute a steep production ramp - in addition to what looks like very high demand for cars - the Q4 call could be special. This is especially true if they are able to do it on the cheap again and come in significantly under the capex and opex guidance while maintaining the Model 3 launch date and SCTY cash positive projections.

Yeah it seems most of the analysts have been sitting on the sidelines waiting waiting waiting waiting. I'm not sure exactly what they are waiting for, contracts signed, contracts completed, batteries flying out, but all of that should pretty much be settled by the end of q2 if not q1. Makes me wonder if the analysts will sort of convert one by one or if something will happen that will flip the switch for all of them at the same time.

 

[FredTMC]

TSLA having some trouble getting off the floor today...
(Macros not helping either)

 

[dandurston]

This talk about solar roofs to me, is a bit tiresome. It's simply too far out. I don't think solar roofs are a 2017 thing, much like Tesla Energy was not a 2015 thing. It was important to start the conversation...

It's true that solar roofs are a long way off. Elon said next summer for the first style of tiles, which means Q3 when installs start. Most likely we won't see any decent volume until Q4 2017. With additional styles rolling out every 3 months, it'll be summer 2018 when all four are cranking off the assembly line.

Thankfully TE and the M3 are coming between now and then to keep revenue growing fast.

 

[hobbes]

There's been no Model 3 sightings other than the pre-alpha cars used for the test rides at the M3 launch event.

Electrek conveniently just had a collection of recent M3 sightings - it is just the 2 prototypes, but they have been spotted at a few different places/occasions: Tesla Model 3: rare sightings of prototypes that you might have missed

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

View attachment 202782

TSLA having some trouble getting off the floor today...

The problem is that the Demon named Donald is basically surrounding himself with the "let's end the world" lobby. Still not convinced any country will let Donald end the world.

Things will get very interesting if the Electoral College gives Donald a vote of no confidence and makes Hillary the president.

 

[FredTMC]

Electrek conveniently just had a collection of recent M3 sightings - it is just the 2 prototypes, but they have been spotted at a few different places/occasions: Tesla Model 3: rare sightings of prototypes that you might have missed

Yep, Those are the same two at the original launch.

I saw the silver one at the solar roof launch too. I was there...

My point is there haven't been any other model 3s seen yet. Alphas

Yes, it's entirely possible Model S's are mules for Model3 drive trains, but I'm looking forward to seeing "non-production line" alphas driving around and spy shots.

Supposedly, tesla ordered parts for up to 300 cars. Love to see some getting built

 

[kelevra]

Wall Street certainly doesn't like risk and that's the reason why we're trading quite a bit lower than before the 500,000 vehicles/yr. was moved up two years and the SCTY merger was proposed. It was also before Trump won the presidency. What transpires, though, is that the perception of risk gets lessened if Tesla makes the right moves, which it is doing. We now see with various European initiatives to move towards EVs that moving up volume production was the right thing to do. The SCTY merger has been derisked by SCTY moving away from short-term financed PPA and moving towards an innovative roof that the competition won't be able to match for quite some time and which will be paid for in full at time of purchase. The Trump presidency is also being derisked as Elon points out how subsidies actually help Tesla's competitors more than they help Tesla and we have so far seen no evidence that Trump intends to treat clean energy companies in a negative fashion.

The perception of risk diminishes as Tesla gets closer to making money with its big investments. When the gigafactory soon begins turning out 21-70 cells plus powerwalls and powerpacks in respectable numbers, we know that the investment in the gigafactory is starting to pay off. When Model 3 remains on track and as Tesla gets closer to launching the vehicle, investors feel that derisking is happening and the stock price will go up.

i agree with you on most those points. i forgot to mention that i agree that time (in the long run) is certainly on teslas side. I was talking about the short term (next year or so) and that the risk that trump represents is still there. as well as the risk from the merger.
in my mind tesla is a clear winner. i studied it quite a lot and turned to this forum after i couldn't find people deeply interested in tesla (and the stock) in my real life. so i have no doubt about the quality of teslas strategy. In the opposite. It is one of the reasons i invested. what i am a little bit worried about is the short term. not to much because i hold my tesla position and actually think about increasing it but i am not as certain as i have been one month ago. (due to the trump+ merger combination)
i have actually been in favor of the merger after i studied solarcity and still think it was a great strategic move but i think the risk also increased. i know that solarcity is moving away from PPA and leases but they are as far as i know still the most popular options. furthermore the tax credit plays a role in solarcities financing mix. If it is cancelled certain methods financing wouldn't work anymore.
since the election i spend a lot of time with trump, his books, cabinet and so on. my momentary opinion is that trumps main motive of becoming president is power and that he wants to diminish americas energy dependence to increase it's bargaining position. Therefore i agree that he isn't necessarily treating clean energy companies in a negative fashion. but it is still an uncertainty. i don't agree that cutting subsidies like ZEV credits derisks Teslas business. Sure it helps the competitors more than Tesla but i don't think the challenge for Tesla right now is to compete (they are far ahead, have huge demand) but to produce. And to produce they need money and ZEV credits provide some. The most important period in my opinion is right now (due to financing risks especially for solarcity) So having the extra money would certainly help even if it helps the competitors more.

 

[3Victoria]

It seems to me, looking back at Tesla history, that every particular time period was the 'most important' ... Tesla has consistently grown through pretty constant risky periods.

 

[CaliBear1]

Thanks for your concern mate, but it's not too shabby over here! Of course we'd all like to live in McMansions with little neoclassical porticos with columns that aren't supporting anything, but with all this socialism we have to make do with the slums of London, Berlin, Paris, Copenhagen, Prague, Barcelona, and other such Dickensian horrorstories ridden with disease, decay, and abject poverty

Frankly, I thought he was talking about Gary, Indiana.

 

[CitizenKane]

This is a puzzling claim, since the primary cost of traditional permanent roofing is labor.

I thought Elon said the biggest component of cost for traditional roof was transport.

 

[Matias]

So far everything Musk has said he would do he has done except he has been a little late occasionally. So if he says it will be cheaper than traditional roof even before solar generation is considered, then it will be, it's just a matter of when.
Clearly it is the labor component in construction they have been targeting, to make this claim. It must be some kind of insta-roof.

Battery swap.

 

[racer26]

Battery swap.

Tesla did actually build the ability to battery swap, and built a pilot station that could actually do it.

Then they realized there was no demand for such a service since the superchargers are good enough and let you keep your own battery, and moved on.

I don't think you've seen the end of Teslas with battery swap functionality though - I think it will make a resurgence for motorsport applications. Think NASCAR pit stops and how fast they can refuel those cars.

 

[kelevra]

If we really want to be pedantic about this, the matte black/carbon Model3 is clearly a pre-alpha. The silver is a much later alpha. The red is a mockup. We are unlikely to see anything else until spring. Note that they can use Model S mules to test significant amounts of the tech that goes into the Model 3. Also, Tesla indicted that the drive train in the prototypes are "production", so maybe beta level in that department. And in some ways, they are already incorporating changes into the Model S/X production lines that come from Model 3 technology development.

how do you know this stuff? the exact stages of the prototypes? (other that the black one has been seen early) and that the Model S/X production lines incorporated changes that came from Model 3 technology development? (other than new gen drivetrain used in P100D) Could you cite any sources?

 

[Papafox]

The problem is that the Demon named Donald is basically surrounding himself with the "let's end the world" lobby. Still not convinced any country will let Donald end the world.

Things will get very interesting if the Electoral College gives Donald a vote of no confidence and makes Hillary the president.

The election is over, Trump won, done deal whether we like it or not.

Yes, there are plenty of climate change deniers in the Trump crowd. Fossil fuels are going to be given lots of leash to run. There's no evidence so far that Trump will become hostile to clean energy, though. He's looking for GDP growth and lower taxes in order to claim that America is now better under his leadership. Attacking the very substantial clean energy business works against his primary goal.

 

[Matias]

View attachment 202781

Space 1999?

 

[MitchJi]

This talk about solar roofs to me, is a bit tiresome. It's simply too far out. I don't think solar roofs are a 2017 thing, much like Tesla Energy was not a 2015 thing. It was important to start the conversation... after all, Tesla Energy couldn't be looking at many 10's to 100's of MWh's of deals in 2016/2017 without that groundwork. So the Tesla discussion about solar roofs is really about getting the solar installation and roofing industries to talk to Tesla/Solarcity as well as get customers prepped. If you are starting to think about replacing your roof, then you might hold up waiting to hear more about solar roofs. But as an investor, I don't think it will be baked into the sp any time soon.

Elon said summer of 2017 for Roof tiles. The NY GF is pretty far along, and Panasonic and Tesla/Elon should have a pretty good idea of the timeline.

I don't disagree with your statement about not being baked into the SP soon. But that doesn't mean that it's not exciting news, that could help remove quite a bit of the negative impact of the SCTY drag on the SP.

I was frustrated that the Q&A mostly concerned the solar roofs. I would rather have had questions about Tesla Energy as well as how Tesla/Solarcity moves forward with existing Solarcity operations. That's the real meat ahead of Model 3. Much more important is the cash flow, and how Solarcity's ops affect it going through Model 3 ramp. I know they said some things in the past few weeks, but I would rather have had Mr. Musk drive those points again during the presentation and Q&A yesterday. Not once did they talk about landing the big Tesla Energy deals as a combined company and how that makes thing easier, leading to more sales and profit.

I think one reason that they have downplayed the TE profits is that they don't want to provide information that would make it possible to determine their pack costs.

And then we start to really see Model 3 ramp evidence... Fremont factory changes, Model 3 additional reveals, etc. By the time we get into summer, we'll have a much better idea of how the TE ramp is going as well as how the Model 3 ramp is going. All of this before the Tesla Buffalo plant comes online. I suspect the initial volume product out of there is traditional solar panels, but with combined Silevo/Panasonic technology. The cell creation is first... and it is easiest to put it into traditional panels.

That doesn't mean that they won't prioritize Tile production.

And in some ways, they are already incorporating changes into the Model S/X production lines that come from Model 3 technology development.

I think a very important thing is that they are incorporating production line improvements (alien dreadnaught). The last time that they modified their production line they were trying to get to 2k cars per week. Half and half MS-MX. Now they are guiding to 25k production in an 11 week quarter.

 

[kelevra]

The election is over, Trump won, done deal whether we like it or not.

Yes, there are plenty of climate change deniers in the Trump crowd. Fossil fuels are going to be given lots of leash to run. There's no evidence so far that Trump will become hostile to clean energy, though. He's looking for GDP growth and lower taxes in order to claim that America is now better under his leadership. Attacking the very substantial clean energy business works against his primary goal.

well there is no clear evidence. And it's Trump so many things are possible. He likes energy production in the US to become energy independent. But he also doesn't like the fact that the solar panels are produced mainly in China and therefore he doesn't like the solar industry as a whole to much. Furthermore he said the wants to cut climate spendings. so there is no clear evidence what he is going to do (and what he can do). on the one hand there is: (pro clean energy)
- energy independence
- jobs
on the other hand: (con)
- spendings (incentives)
- large imports from foreign contries.

he could end up changing not much (in terms of clean energy) while promoting oil, he could cut solar incentives to safe money while he doesn't care much about a industry that is beneficiary for china, he could put custom duties in place. etc.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Okay Google. Time for you to take aim at and give a warning to Marketwatch for being a fake news website.

This article was published around 8-9am today. What type of schenanigans allow it to get republished purely so it can get to the top of the market feed and receive a few thousand extra clicks?

Also, everything in this "article" is nonsense. The lawsuits are basically moot. Shareholders have spoken and overwhelmingly agree the merger makes sense.

The only lawsuit that actually had a plaintiff was accusing Elon of using the merger as a gimmick to bailout SolarCity because he owns a lot of it.

The other lawsuits, as best as I could tell, didn't have a plaintiff, or were thrown out.


Next for Tesla and SolarCity: The lawsuits

Proof: Current time is November 18th 1:37pm ET. If this was published Nov 18th 12:47 p.m ET, why is there a comment from November 18th 12 a.m?

 

[CaliBear1]

Just give it a few years - trillion $ company, remember? 30-50x return on investment, said Baron. Patience and resilience. HOLD.

HOLD Indeed!

As you watch this YouTube clip from "Braveheart," just think of the English heavy cavalry as the shorts and their big oil backers and William Wallace and the sons of Scotland as TSLA investors!

And yes, you'll have to suffer through a 15 second ad before you get to the...steak?