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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Quote Originally Posted by maoing View Post
Elon Musk has to defend TSLA in tomorrow ER/CC, he needs to give bullish guidance at least (even might miss later on). Otherwise he can't afford to see both SCTY and TSLA dropping like rock and his ambition for those two companies might be just over. Without high SP --> no fund raise --> no gigafactory --> no model 3, then TSLA only worth less than $100。So it's Elon and investors' gamble tomorrow, we shall see either low 120 or 170。Which side you choose?
Deliberatly giving a false positive guidance is a crime.

It´s RED again in Europe.This is a dangerous game to play here.If they should get caught with the pants down we have a "thermal rundown".
 
Well you do need to consider exchange rate fluctuations back into a USD rate. If the USD strengthens then the EUR valued stock will also strengthen by default (against a flat movement driven by stock purchases/sales). Otherwise you would have an arbitrage opportunity

(Edit Put back to original post - I think this is the right way round!)
 
This is something that worries me as well, as I can see the same thing over here. A barenaked S70 (non-D) without any options (or even destination charge) now starts at 78K Euro (roughly 87K US Dollar) in Germany. Even for a car as great as an S70, that's a lot. Add to that the fact that options are far more expensive over here as well (premium interior e.g. is the equivalent of around 3.700 US Dollar).
Will certainly be interesting to see how demand over here develops.

To me this is rather a bullish sign on S demand. Now that Tesla has globally removed the 85Kwh option and single motor configurations are only available for the 70, they have chosen to keep the dual motor and 90Kwh price premiums in place. This is effectively a price hike which will increase GM. Also, their internal data should show pretty strong demand (possibly surpassing production capabilities) if they dared to make such a move.

Worst case scenario, if demand would seriously be hurt by this, they can just go back to the old 85Kwh price wit the 90 pack and claim "increased availability" of the new and improved cells - which by the way is probably true as well - without losing too much face.
 
Elon Musk has to defend TSLA in tomorrow ER/CC, he needs to give bullish guidance at least (even might miss later on). Otherwise he can't afford to see both SCTY and TSLA dropping like rock and his ambition for those two companies might be just over. Without high SP --> no fund raise --> no gigafactory --> no model 3, then TSLA only worth less than $100。So it's Elon and investors' gamble tomorrow, we shall see either low 120 or 170。Which side you choose?

Deliberatly giving a false positive guidance is a crime.

OMG! What do we do?!?? What does Elon do?!??

You guys can't be serious...:rolleyes:
 
I don't actually believe the job market is all that great. Most new jobs are part-time, low wage services, and other minimum wage jobs. That's why wages have remained stagnant throughout the recovery.

As for the 2016 timing, I think that was more related to taxes. And it takes time for people to digest what the Fed's intentions are.
Wages might be somewhat stagnant, but who is paying for the massive massive healthcare costs?
Mostly Business is paying for the massive healthcare cost.

The fed is playing with the Phillips curve, as unemployment goes down inflation goes up.
Except we have deflationary forces ridiculing their forecasts.
 
for perspective here:
every earnings call seem like the most important ever
very large movement of stock expected on day of call based on experience of every earnings call

To add to that for those that follow 'max pain' for options: Starts the day at $130 for expiry 2/12 but very little difference in 'max pain' from $110-150. These numbers can change (will change) dramatically over the next 48 hours. If one looks ahead (far ahead as far as weekly options go), max pain moves up to $162 for expiry 2/19.
 
I am bullish, here is what my technical system says about TSLA (those who knows candle chart will recognize the jargons):

((SingleCandleCounterAttack,1.0),"2016-02-09"),((SingleCandleCounterAttack,1.0),"2016-02-04"),((Engulfing,1.3),"2016-02-01"),((MorningStar,1.7),"20160129"), (Inverted Hammer: "
2016-02-09").

Loading up on Mar 4 $190 to $210 calls.
 
Market opens in 8 minutes... here we go... Yellen and then after market earnings. Anyone going into this thing naked or do you have some put options for insurance?

I'm still debating.. What are you doing?

FWIW: I did add some puts $140s despite the high IV as some protection. Buying OTM calls $180s for cheap just in case I am totally wrong about the ER.

Otherwise holding cash for post ER.
 
This thread is____. Can't believe the moderator bans people like Julian for posting their opinion. We need to stop the predominant negative sentiment in this thread, especially when things are not heading the right direction. Now the moderator just letting the bears here rule. Just wait for the gloating and the "see I told you so" after earnings release.
 
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This thread is f'd up. Can't believe the moderator bans people like Julian for posting their opinion. We need to stop the predominant negative sentiment in this thread, especially when things are not heading the right direction. Now the moderator just letting the bears here rule. Just wait for the gloating and the "see I told you so" after earnings release.


Julian banned?? Have the mod been paid off by the shorts??

An easy way to turn the mood completely negative - remove the most vocal and active long.. And release the short hord which get free reign.

might have been unintentinally (i hope) but a gift wrapped package for the shorts.

or a genious move by the shorts. Infiltrate, divide and conquer.
 
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