As I mentioned before, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla had to spend more than expected to fix the mess created by Reichow and Ensign. This might have caused warranty expenses to be higher than expected for this quarter. Someone needs to be held accountable for this mess that probably cost Tesla a few million. They were the execs who were responsible for overseeing quality control for the Model X. It makes sense for them to resign.
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3PHASE
3PHASE
Perhaps they will bring in some new people with experience in scaling.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Tried to listen to it, but the questions to Elon are so softball, it's not worth listening to.
This is my all time favorite quote:
"Optimism, pessimism, f**k that, we are going to make it happen."
- Elon Musk
"Optimism, pessimism, f**k that, we are going to make it happen."
- Elon Musk
A hint. You cannot have Mfg'g and Production controlling QC and have a desirable outcome in the long run. Does Tesla Motors even have a modern Quality Management System in place? This is a system where Production answers to QC, not the other way around. QC has the final word on quality, not the CEO. The CEO can fire the QC Manager, but cannot override them.
This is the failure of their supervision. In the real world of manufacturing bad things will always happen when you push to 'ship at all costs'. You can tell Production to ship 25% more than the system is designed for, and they can usually do it. The mistake was making that request to start with.
The indicator was the Quarterly Production Pushes. Companies with good quality management systems don't play those games. They pull the plug on shortcuts necessary to exceed the engineered production levels set by mfg'g engineering.
I'll be very surprised if Elon doesn't provide an update on current Powerwall and Powerpack preorders, and how Tesla plans to build these units. Investors have basically ignored the early deposit figures because Tesla hasn't clarified where demand currently is, provided an update to explain what has happened in the past 6 months, or a forecast for where Tesla sees demand heading. I wouldn't be surprised if a number of utilities and large corporations have given Tesla the capital necessary to upgrade capacity to accommodate their orders,and to get priority in the queue.
Still waiting for an update on Powerwall 2.0. Very interesting that the founding director of ARPA E
is at the conference.
Only 40 people viewing the Periscope stream
Still waiting for an update on Powerwall 2.0. Very interesting that the founding director of ARPA E
is at the conference.
Only 40 people viewing the Periscope stream
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Fascinating. Elon himself I'm convinced does not fully grasp the opportunity represented by Tesla. He has either got the poker face to end all - or he really believes he needs a carbon tax to overturn oil and he really believes that Tesla will only influence existing auto makers to do the main bulk of the transition. Neither one of these premises is true.
Ulmo
Active Member
He has to give this speech a lot. He's tired of it. And he has learned to have to repeat it. I'm not surprised. And I think he realizes that others watching him realize he's overworked, and give him some slack on that and listen to his words, not his tiredness.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It's just a general energy conference, I'm assuming Elon will not reveal anything specific regarding TSLA.
StapleGun
Member
I'm a huge Tesla bull, of the money I'm willing to risk about 80% is in Tesla, but you are spot on here. Demand growth for the Model S is slowing. They sold 50k Model S last year vs. 31k the year before for a growth rate of 61%. If the growth rate stays the same that would be 80k Model S this year which is well above guidance. Does anyone here really expect 80k Model S to roll off the line this year? 130k in 2017? 6 million in 2026? Exponential growth always slows down eventually and to me it seems clear we've passed "peak Model S demand growth".
How the market interprets a slowdown of demand growth is a completely different beast. People interpret this to mean TSLA is overvalued and demand is on it's way to zero are obviously idiots. I think this forum is way to concerned with admitting that demand is slowing because they're worried the rest of the market will react the same as those idiots. 100k S+X per year at 25% margins is $2.5B in profits. That alone justifies the current price and the true steady-state demand will probably settle above that.
Personally I acknowledge that demand growth is slowing, but I the reason I hold stock is not - and never was - because I thought Model S and X growth would continue indefinitely. It's because of Model 3, Model Y, Tesla Energy, Autopilot, and whatever comes after that.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Or, radical thought, you could be wrong, and Elon could be right.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I don't know if I'd say he's spot on. There is a difference in a slow down of demand growth and a demand problem or limit. Demand increasing at a slower rate does not mean lack of or lesser demand.
The 50% per year target for 10 years is with multiple products. They now have 1.5 and will have atleast six before 2020 (S, 3, X, Y, PowerWall, PowerPack). I think Model S eventually will reach 20% growth once they have reached 100k per year annual rate and about 30% before that. It is well according to the plan that S growth is slowing down.
Model 3 and Y potential market size is a million+ per year each up to 2020 because before that there won't be any serious competition.
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No. Absolutely not.
He either knows it now and he's concealing that knowledge or he will discover it later and be amazed that he didn't see it sooner. It's the truth to be discovered and it isn't going anywhere.
mejojo
Active Member
Until we hear of a brand new production line for Model S, no one should expect 80k or 130k or more. It's capped.
I've always thought Elon wants the entire auto industry to go the renewable route, not just for Tesla, so I think the strategies and actions he has done so far reflects that inclusiveness (e.g., introduced the roadster to clearly demonstrate the superiority of EV drive trains thus spurring the EV programs of Nissan and GM in the form of Leaf and Volt, opened patents, welcomed (not dissed) the introduction of Bolt ).
StapleGun
Member
Fair enough. My motivation for writing that was that It seems taboo around here to mention the fact that there is a limit to Model S sales and I think that taboo is stifling good conversation.
Electracity and Maoing have both presented reasonable points and instead of being debated on their merit, the claims are met with refusal to even consider the possibility of demand slowing down.
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