Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[skljsd329832]

I couldn't help myself and went back to see what kind of predictions you have actually made. First I went back to December of last year and found this post Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

"Upsetting the shorts on the other hand is where the big bucks is at and there will be tears in Shortsville to rival the Mississippi for the coming 6-9 months and around about now would be the time to anticipate that."

2 months later the stock had fallen a third and today, 5 months later, the stock is almost exactly the same price compared to the date of your post. You also speculated that Tesla would deliver 19k cars in Q4, that didn't happen either, at all.

Fast forward to Jan 4th Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

"$400 by July. That would be my call."

Just awful.

This post is great (from last month) Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

"My interest in the matter ever since November last year is a laser focus on Tesla unveiling profits and positive cash flows later this year in the context of an insane narrative where I think it will be on the cards to spot a solid $100 of SP gains with certainty levels in three 9's territory that makes my sock guarantee look like guesswork."

If we don't see $300 before the end of this year, which I think is very unlikely, that will be the nail in the coffin of your reputation here. Not that you ought to have a good reputation at this point with your history. And the fact that you are shilling for your website even though I'm not sure why when you are making 1000% yearly gains from your trades.

No. And you just made a complete fool of yourself again.

See the Thesis Update Post a day after Q1 ER. May 05th #15041

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

Price has been advance tracked, accurately throughout. The setup postulate you refer to was a no-win no fee, Q1 ER changed the rules. The fact that the rules could change without consequence was also called.

@Perfectlogic You are dead wrong, caught and exposed for what you are and there is nothing on God's Green Earth you can do about it. You're done here.

 

[wycolo]

Zhelko said: peek to trough loss of 87% (Dec 31st - Mar 9) on my whole portfolio.

Whoa, mine went down 13%. Is that what yours did?

Talk about buying opportunities . . .
--

 

[Perfectlogic]

No. And you just made a complete fool of yourself again.

See the Thesis Update Post a day after Q1 ER. May 05th #15041

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

Price has been advance tracked, accurately throughout. The setup postulate you refer to was a no-win no fee, Q1 ER changed the rules. The fact that the rules could change without consequence was also called.

@Perfectlogic You are dead wrong, caught and exposed for what you are and there is nothing on God's Green Earth you can do about it. You're done here.

So 3 months after you call a huge rally the stock is down 10%, but that didn't mean you were wrong? Do you know how predictions work? If anyone bought July calls in Dec when you made your prediction they would have taken a huge loss.

All I have seen since the huge rally $400 prediction is some extremely vague psychic type predictions where you cover your own ass in pretty much every scenario, that isn't worth anything.

 

[skljsd329832]

Not sure it's a good idea to attract that kind of attention.

Perhaps, although my interest is not directly related to stock movements or promoting TMC (which cannot apparently even moderate away blatant trolls to distinguish itself from publicly disgraced outlets like Seeking Alpha and Yahoo Groups). We have valuable data for industry analysis that tracks what we see as an industrial revolution of the basis of transport. Advance-Tracking the stock is simply a bench test to see if that information and analytic ability is useful in forecasting. It is quite a thorough test because it requires technology, business, consumer market, capital market and socioeconomic landscape analysis to arrive at a stock price. The objective would be to improve the accuracy (reduce the ignorance) of the way the media treats the emerging industry. We can also supply a base data feed to large banks and financial analysts.

It might interest you to know that last week we were presenting to an automotive consortium in Sweden who need our data feed for market intelligence and product planning purposes in the EV/PHEV space. What they described to us is exactly what it feels like to be caught in a textbook Technology Disruption. If we move aggressively into this market now will we lose money because the market is too small to deliver a return on risk. If we move later will the market opportunity have passed us by? When is the right time? (The answer for a market incumbent facing an identified market disruption is always now or never, it never gets to look any better it just gets worse and more expensive with less resources to do anything about it the longer you wait).

 

[skljsd329832]

So 3 months after you call a huge rally the stock is down 10%, but that didn't mean you were wrong? Do you know how predictions work? If anyone bought July calls in Dec when you made your prediction they would have taken a huge loss.

All I have seen since the huge rally $400 prediction is some extremely vague psychic type predictions where you cover your own ass in pretty much every scenario, that isn't worth anything.

@Perfectlogic. Like I said. You're wrong and now you are Blocked.

 

[Irishjugg]

If Tesla had an easy way of increasing demand they would be pulling that trigger right now, are you not aware that they are about to increase production capacity from 1200 to 2000/week with the lowest waiting times they ever had? You guys are absolutely delusional. And again with the straw man, it says a lot that you have to resort to that type of arguing, I have never said I was bullish on any other car company, I haven't even implied it.

That 2k is S+X not just S. That's where your argument suffers. It assumes the Tesla plan has been to grow model S to 2k and more units NOW which is not the plan, they are spending to do model 3 and will come back to growing model S production again later.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

So 3 months after you call a huge rally the stock is down 10%, but that didn't mean you were wrong? Do you know how predictions work? If anyone bought July calls in Dec when you made your prediction they would have taken a huge loss.

All I have seen since the huge rally $400 prediction is some extremely vague psychic type predictions where you cover your own ass in pretty much every scenario, that isn't worth anything.

You must not have a good memory. He did make that prediction (but predicated on TSLA re-affirming +FCF in Q1 and Q2), but shortly after the earnings report, he changed his prediction (and was pretty upset about it), because TSLA went for a faster ramp instead.

 

[MitchJi]

And add them to your ignore list. First I had to read all of the responses to the nonsensical posts. That eventually gave way (mostly) to posts about ignoring the nonsense.

Please can everyone just completely stop responding to the foolish trolls!

The main problem is not the dumb posts by trolls. The problem is all of the long well reasoned replies, that accomplish nothing. Most of us are intelligent enough to know that they're ludicrous. The only ones who aren't intelligent enough to figure this out are the people making those posts. Has anyone made a dent in their idiocy? If they won't or are incapable of understanding and the rest of us don't need to hear it what can you possibly accomplish, other than turning following this thread into a PITA?

 

[Irishjugg]

Yeah I will probably soon take a break from the thread, the one thing I do agree with people on is that we are starting to beat a dead horse here so to say. I really hope Tesla will actually drop to $120 in the next 12 months which I do think has at least a 50% chance of happening, this thread would be incredibly entertaining I'm sure.

Only because of how much of the posts would be me begging other people to loan me money so I could buy more shares A grown man begging could be entertaining lol.
I sincerely hope something like that happens so I can increase my position, I know you would be a strong buyer at those levels too (of course assuming the reason for the price drops are just the market being the market and not a massive real issue in the Tesla business)

 

[Perfectlogic]

That 2k is S+X not just S. That's where your argument suffers. It assumes the Tesla plan has been to grow model S to 2k and more units NOW which is not the plan, they are spending to do model 3 and will come back to growing model S production again later.

I never said that. I'm saying that unless something sudden happen to boost demand it doesn't look like they will be able to fill that 2k S and X combined. S demand has been around 50k/year for a while now, probably a bit above at this point. So they will probably need to produce and sell at least 800 X weekly which just doesn't seem likely judging by the demand so far, but of course the X demand is more uncertain as it is a newer car with less data points.

Another thing is if they are even able to produce 800 X weekly, I just read a story about someone having their X delivery delayed like 5 or 6 times. Perhaps Tesla will just blame a reduced yearly guidance on continuing X production ramp difficulties.

 

[Perfectlogic]

You must not have a good memory. He did make that prediction (but predicated on TSLA re-affirming +FCF in Q1 and Q2), but shortly after the earnings report, he changed his prediction (and was pretty upset about it), because TSLA went for a faster ramp instead.

If you make a prediction that turn out to be wrong, then it was wrong. Everyone has 20/20 hindsight, predictions are about predicting the future, which he failed at.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Only because of how much of the posts would be me begging other people to loan me money so I could buy more shares A grown man begging could be entertaining lol.
I sincerely hope something like that happens so I can increase my position, I know you would be a strong buyer at those levels too (of course assuming the reason for the price drops are just the market being the market and not a massive real issue in the Tesla business)

Probably yeah. A very interesting buying opportunity definitely is one of the reasons why I'm following Tesla closely (believe it or not I'm not just here to annoy you guys).

 

[MitchJi]

I hope things have improved in the last 60 days!

I have had my X for less than 60 days 20 of those days my X has been in the service center. In the first 24 hours of ownership my brakes failed and my passenger door wouldn't open (should have been my first clue that something not right). It has been non stop from there. I'm still looking at 7+ more days when more parts arrive. Some of the repairs have been installed improperly making more problems it's like I spent $120,000 for a car that is so poorly built that it requires what feels like non stop repairs. To top it of the tech tells me my seals that are messed up on my X "that's how they are all coming in" and didn't fix them. This is our 3rd tesla and what a painful experience this one has been.

Anyway sorry venting just tired and frustrated.

If you have any suggestions it would be greatly appreciated.

I hate calling them out because they really have been trying. The final straw for me was yesterday after a trim piece was replaced on my last visit my friend came over to my house when he came in he asked why was a trim piece hanging off my car. I still have 10 more things that need to be fixed or still waiting on parts. Down from the 38 items to be fixed or replaced. I'm not talking about just small items... windows, whole seat (not the 3rd row), failed brakes, damaged dash etc... Things missing clips, rail covers for the front seats tracks etc... from the factory. Dash was damaged from the factory.

 

[skljsd329832]

The main problem is not the dumb posts by trolls. The problem is all of the long well reasoned replies, that accomplish nothing. Most of us are intelligent enough to know that they're ludicrous. The only ones who aren't intelligent enough to figure this out are the people making those posts. Has anyone made a dent in their idiocy? If they won't or are incapable of understanding and the rest of us don't need to hear it what can you possibly accomplish.......

Just block them but also inform moderation of the situation because blocking them gives shills and trolls a free pass to saturate the thread with BS unchallenged as they have done with every other resource of this nature. It is time for TMC to decide if it wants this resource to become discredited and toxic to honest discussion at the level of Seeking Alpha or Yahoo Finance or whether it should preserve its place as the only valuable community for TSLA investment discussion on the Internet. Ultimately TMC is their property and their decision.

This is not about risking a healthy balance of Bulls vs Bears. There is no risk of creating a Bull echo chamber by dismissing liars and no value in lies and heedless ignorance at all. Anybody wishing to research the prevailing trends in ignorance and dishonesty as well as the output of paid negative TSLA shills can look at Seeking Alpha. It is most helpful to be able to be able to study the liars as subject matter in that Petri dish rather than having to beat them off with a stick here on TMC in order to discuss anything at all.

Nobody could have been more consistently, persistently, even combatively (sorry @FredTMC), but rationally and honestly, Bearish on the Stock Price than me from $255 down to $211 and by implication bearish to anywhere prior to the upside catalyst of securing funding - which has now occurred.

 

[Irishjugg]

Probably yeah. A very interesting buying opportunity definitely is one of the reasons why I'm following Tesla closely (believe it or not I'm not just here to annoy you guys).

I may be one of the only people here that doesn't just think you are some troll of a short. I think you have well reasoned arguments that I believe are incorrect and based on extrapolating fact from something that isn't factual (I don't think they way you view wait time as a demand indicator is accurate at all). I also don't consider you a bear and am aware of the fact that you are not currently short and are long term bullish.
You aren't JamesTSLA for goodness sake, he has posted 25 times now with literally 0 value to any of his posts and some strange air of "I earned this shitty tone" that he certainly doesn't actually have. First person I've ever been compelled to ignore, because I think as many contrarian opinions as possible are an enormous boon to a strong investor.
You and I just disagree on the conclusions that can be drawn from the data that forms the basis of your argument. I don't see any problem with that, and freely admit I could be the incorrect one, I just don't find it very likely I also expect them to hit 80k deliveries this year.

 

[Perfectlogic]

I may be one of the only people here that doesn't just think you are some troll of a short. I think you have well reasoned arguments that I believe are incorrect and based on extrapolating fact from something that isn't factual (I don't think they way you view wait time as a demand indicator is accurate at all). I also don't consider you a bear and am aware of the fact that you are not currently short and are long term bullish.
You aren't JamesTSLA for goodness sake, he has posted 25 times now with literally 0 value to any of his posts and some strange air of "I earned this shitty tone" that he certainly doesn't actually have. First person I've ever been compelled to ignore, because I think as many contrarian opinions as possible are an enormous boon to a strong investor.
You and I just disagree on the conclusions that can be drawn from the data that forms the basis of your argument. I don't see any problem with that, and freely admit I could be the incorrect one, I just don't find it very likely I also expect them to hit 80k deliveries this year.

I appreciate that you can respect me having a different view than yourself without resorting to misrepresenting and straight up lying about what I'm saying to make me look bad, like some of the more outspoken hyper bulls here have done to feel better about their investment. Of course I too respect your position and it is definitely not impossible for Tesla to meet the 80k. I'm giving it a 25% chance of happening and that would most likely be due to a boost in X demand.

I hope things have improved in the last 60 days!

What a complete disaster the X have been. The long delays, the high price of developement, and still now after this long they can't seem to get it right. Unfortunately this whole ordeal have really lowered my confidence in Elon's decision making. Not saying he is a bad CEO by a long shot but I think this is a testament to his inexperience working as a CEO for a company like this.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Nobody could have been more consistently, persistently, even combatively (sorry @FredTMC), but rationally and honestly, Bearish on the Stock Price than me from $255 down to $211 and by implication bearish to anywhere prior to the upside catalyst of securing funding - which has now occurred.

You sure you can't fit in a bit more self praise? Lol

Edit: You said you blocked me but I just recieved a notification that you disliked one of my posts. I guess that is just one more thing you are being dishonest about. Sad.

 

[skljsd329832]

If you make a prediction that turn out to be wrong, then it was wrong. Everyone has 20/20 hindsight, predictions are about predicting the future, which he failed at.

Reported to moderation, reason: Lies.

You sure you can't fit in a bit more self praise? Lol

Edit: You said you blocked me but I just recieved a notification that you disliked one of my posts. I guess that is just one more thing you are being dishonest about. Sad.

I have unblocked you temporarily to systematically report your abuse of this forum along with your troll tag team/sock puppet? buddy @JamesTSLA

I consider it public service and would strongly encourage others to do likewise until your TMC account is terminated. The weeks and months ahead are important and I for one place a high value on the existence of a dishonesty / idiot-free zone.

 

[EinSV]

Reported to moderation, reason: Lies.


I have unblocked you temporarily to systematically report your abuse of this forum along with your troll tag team/sock puppet? buddy @JamesTSLA

I consider it public service and would strongly encourage others to do likewise until your TMC account is terminated. The weeks and months ahead are important and I for one place a high value on the existence of a dishonesty / idiot-free zone.

I wholeheartedly agree and have done the same for these two characters.

 

[Menifeer]

Fairly decent article from USA today. Interesting quotes from Toyota North American CEO. Good summary of future "Tesla fighters".

I believe the main thing standing between them and success is a charging network. Sure the designs may not be sexy. The dealers may not push electric cars, but I just don't see how they can be successful without a decent charging network for long distance travel.

Tesla fighters: GM, Toyota strategies diverge

I think the market for EVs will (in the short term) be different than some people expect. I believe suburban families with two cars, one of which never travels more than 200 miles/day, will account for the majority of sales.

If that's true, refueling away from home won't be those buyers' major concern. They'll be more interested in knowing that a support network for their car is nearby in the event it's needed.

That's my situation. My EV will never be charged away from home, but a Chevy dealer can be found in almost every community. Three are short drives from my home and, when I'm on the road, one will be not far away. My nearest Tesla Service Centers are very long trips, even here in Tesla-friendly Southern CA.

I expect the Model 3 to be superior to the Bolt, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the better choice. Expansion of the Service Center network is crucial to Tesla's long-term success, but I doubt that it will be greatly expanded by the time the Model 3 hits the streets.