If the second half is 25 weeks worth of production, at a rate of 2000/week , thats 50,000 produced.
If the first half exceeds 30,000 then we are in the ball park.
There is such a thing as overtime.
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If the second half is 25 weeks worth of production, at a rate of 2000/week , thats 50,000 produced.
If the first half exceeds 30,000 then we are in the ball park.
There is such a thing as overtime.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Hah, you posted the exact same comment as I did. Great minds think alike.
But we should adopt Elon's new way of thinking and new terminology; we shouldn't talk run rates in number of cards per week or year but we should start talking a about production in the new innovative unit MMCPPM (Millimeters of Car Produced Per Minute).
MS is 196", MX is 198". Let's say 197" on average which is almost exactly 5000 mm. 100k cars in a year. 31 556 926 seconds in a year.
That's 15.8 mm of car per second.
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Ok, perfect, so it was the recent post I misinterpreted, not Elon last night. My apologies, I thought it was saying we would exit the year with the 100k production rate, IE 2k(ish) cars a week. Not that we would exit the year having produced 80-100k vehicles, which is what I assumed he meant last night. Thank you all for clearing it up.
Now, unless I'm missing something else, I'm stoked. Every time good news comes out I'm tempted to sell something to add even more TSLA onto a portfolio with a very very poor balance ratio.
Now, unless I'm missing something else, I'm stoked. Every time good news comes out I'm tempted to sell something to add even more TSLA onto a portfolio with a very very poor balance ratio.
Thanks. So, meeting the guidance of 80-90k and exiting the year with 100k/year run rate could mean production rate becoming nearly flat in Q2 and onwards.
Gerasimental
Member
No, I think you had understood correctly and have now misunderstood. My interpretation was certainly that he meant exiting at an annualised run-rate of 100k per year, i.e. 2k per week.
However this actually is not necessarily bad news. The Q1 shareholder letter stated that they plan to exit Q2 at 2000 per week. If this is achieved, then we can expect a steady run rate throughout 2H, achieving 50k deliveries.
This is good news as it hopefully means resources will be shifted to M3 production.
I figured that at roughly at 1800 cars per week , at $100,000 per car, they cover all expenses.
That is sum of cost of goods sold, plus depreciation, plus R&D , plus interest cost. Not model 3.
That run rate is crucial in my mind, if and only if my calculations are accurate. Its crucial
because at that rate the firm is self sustaining.
Self sustaining basically means no solvency issues.
That is sum of cost of goods sold, plus depreciation, plus R&D , plus interest cost. Not model 3.
That run rate is crucial in my mind, if and only if my calculations are accurate. Its crucial
because at that rate the firm is self sustaining.
Self sustaining basically means no solvency issues.
doggusfluffy
Closed
This is a bit anecdotal to the ST price...but in this video clip Tesla has some innovative marketing seemingly all over the Code conference.
Amazon's Bezos: A.I.'s impact is 'gigantic'
Amazon's Bezos: A.I.'s impact is 'gigantic'
We should be talking about the point where Tesla is free cash flow positive at this point, since the pieces are all in place to start making those projections.
Elon - Surprise! The Gigafactory will produce three times as many batteries than previously revealed.
Surprise! Fremont can easily build 1,000,000 cars per year with better use of space and manufacturing.
Surprise! TE will be bigger and make more money than previously revealed.
WallStreet - Sell!
Surprise! Fremont can easily build 1,000,000 cars per year with better use of space and manufacturing.
Surprise! TE will be bigger and make more money than previously revealed.
WallStreet - Sell!
Although this has sort of been known for a while, does anyone else find it interesting Tesla's robots are called Titans? Perhaps something to do with Project Titan?
I also found it interesting that Elon didn't affirmatively say that Tesla isn't interested in putting Solar Panels on Tesla vehicles, and almost seemed to pause to think before answering. Maybe the roof of the Model 3 includes transparent Solar Panels?
This fully transparent solar cell could make every window and screen a power source (updated) | ExtremeTech
I also found it interesting that Elon didn't affirmatively say that Tesla isn't interested in putting Solar Panels on Tesla vehicles, and almost seemed to pause to think before answering. Maybe the roof of the Model 3 includes transparent Solar Panels?
This fully transparent solar cell could make every window and screen a power source (updated) | ExtremeTech
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Elon said they hope to end the year with an annualized run rate of between 1600 and 2000 per week. Anyone who counts on Tesla already being at an average 2000 run rate today (and maintaining that pace for the rest of the year) is fooling themselves. Interpreting current guidance in the most favorable way possible, the maximum production Tesla will achieve this year is 85 500 vehicles.
No, other posters here are misinterpreting Elon. Listen to the conference call again (at the 2h17'45" mark). He is very clearly saying that it is the annualized rate, not total production.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
We'll. I think you may be foolish to dismiss the very high likelihood that they are at 2000k/week right now. (16 MMCPPS)
dc_h
Active Member
I am interpreting this as early downward signaling for full year production. If they plan to exit 2016 at 80-100k, that would seem to imply they are growing into that rate in Q2 and Q3, or he would have said we plan to hit 80K annual rate in Q2 or Q3. I think positive catalysts are TE, GF production and Model 3, but that all seems very 2017. Hope I am wrong, but this seems like short term straddles is the most likely profitable short term option. If I'm wrong and Q2 S ~ 13k and X~9k, which I see as about 30-40% possible, we could have some fireworks on July 5th.
On what do you base that very high likelihood? Less than a month ago they reaffirmed production guidance for this quarter to be 20 000 or a weekly rate of a sliver above 1500/week.
Just some food for thought... first Gigafactory phase coming online at 20 GWh of capacity, starting at end of this year. Assume gradual ramp for 6 months to hit that mark, so say 8 GWh of cell production at that point. Then, in the 2nd half of 2017, we're talking the Fremont factory trying to make 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3's. That's 13 GWh of battery packs, assuming all are upper end 65 kWh. But assume they actually hit 150,000 Model 3's. That's 9.75 GWh. That means Tesla Energy has about 8 GWh of cell supply in 2017. At $250/kWh (assuming pricing drops down to original pricing), we're talking $2 billion in revenue for TE in 2017. That's $200 million in gross profit at 10% gross margin, $300 million at 15% gross profit.
This is all assuming that Panasonic's Osaka plants are not making any Tesla Energy cells and their output is all directed to the Model S and X.
This is all assuming that Panasonic's Osaka plants are not making any Tesla Energy cells and their output is all directed to the Model S and X.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
The fact that they upheld previously given full year guidance yesterday.
Do you assume they're lying or misleading investors on purpose?
I agree.. a high level of production for the year is likely around 85,000 vehicles, but certainly not the cap... they can probably push for another 2,000 to 3,000 vehicles if need be. Deliveries, however, can be higher than that. There are about 5,000 vehicles in the current delivery pipeline. If the factory is at a steady state in terms of production in the last 6 months, it should be much easier for Tesla to allocate regionally to allow for a drop in the finished goods inventory and therefore able to deliver more vehicles than produced.
How does that lead to them being at an annualized rate of 2000 today?!? Guidance calls for barely 1650 cars/week in the last three quarters of this year.
Again. Their guidance for this quarter is that they will produce 20k cars or 1540 cars/week. Was that a lie or intentially misleiding investors according to you then?
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