Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I don't have anything negative to say about Tesla stock. Likely an opportunity to accumulate if holding for 3-5. That being said, I think this decline is the real deal - at least a 20% correction across the board.

 

[eloder]

That being said, I think this decline is the real deal - at least a 20% correction across the board.

It happened last summer but worse because Greece was also a big thing.

If last summer didn't put a bear on the US markets, this one certainly won't. The dollar and US economy itself has been extremely resilient. A 20% correction in US markets, even if it happened, doesn't even matter to anyone holding medium-long in TSLA because normal volatility in this stock is taking out much larger swings than that.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

It happened last summer but worse because Greece was also a big thing.

If last summer didn't put a bear on the US markets, this one certainly won't. The dollar and US economy itself has been extremely resilient. A 20% correction in US markets, even if it happened, doesn't even matter to anyone holding medium-long in TSLA because normal volatility in this stock is taking out much larger swings than that.

I completely agree.

 

[Spidy]

Those that are familiar with Elon's communications style would entirely disagree that he is prone to "overexited hyperbole".

I would strongly disagree with that statement. Elon goes to extraordinary lengths to speak with accuracy, including upon topics that are determinable deep into the future. Those he typically couches in the appropriate statistical language. As far as I am aware he as never yet issued a materially misleading statement among a great many material statements that have proven accurate by the passage of events. Speaking of the future is often considered to be the definition of hype by those wired to believe the future is by definition indeterminable. That is not Elon's problem.

On the subject of Model 3 there is a great deal more that is knowable than 'BMW 3 Series killer'. It would take a side of A4 to explain and this is not the place for it. The end result is that battery cost, energy density, scaling of 2D surfaces and 3D load-bearing structures, scaling of motor and inverter power handling, design for automated assembly and parts commonality for things like brake system, wheels, wipers, lights, glass and suspension components with very mass market cars all conspire to deliver a 80% scale Model S 70 type vehicle with performance and range to match at $35K. Which I think anyone would agree would be a worthy BMW 3 series competitor (and nothing like a GM Bolt). Recall the Q3 conference call - the GM managed to publish LG's $145 per KWh and an analyst asked if that price was a competitive concern to Tesla - to which the answer was essentially 'no and good luck getting close to Tesla's battery cost reductions'.

Whether they will include Super Charging in the $35K base model I don't know but I can guess. Looking at the Model S 60 experience vs the Model S 70 I think they will aim for it and cost-wise I think it is possible. With a smaller battery that is further optimized for fast charging both the total energy use and the time required to occupy a Supercharging stall will drop considerably compared with the Model S and X. Straubel was talking about getting Supercharging down to under ten minutes for the Model 3 and aiming for five - as you say it makes a huge difference to the value proposition. It is also likely to be the case that Model X and Model S is more likely to be purchased by people with leisure time and attending meetings that require lengthy Supercharger trips where the Model 3 demographic is probably younger and more centered around home, centralized work and family life. Certainly the average car driver uses the Interstate less than the average Model S owner assuming the 10% Super Charger stats is suggestive (if not conclusive) of a lower per vehicle Super Charger demand of a more averagely priced vehicle.

It is also a thing that come 2017 and beyond Solar City will be up and running with its own solar panel manufacturing facility in Buffalo NY likely benefiting Tesla with a reduced energy installation cost and Tesla will be producing storage batteries of its own. Finally on these musings I think that providing customers with Supercharging is a way more effective use of an auto makers advertising budget than buying TV spots. Together IMO this adds up to a 65% chance of Tesla including Supercharging in the base Model 3 (and being able to do so within the base price).

"Look at how much you can fit in a Model X" is all I say to Elon and accurate statements. And that was when they already had a prototype.

How is a 80% scale Model going to reach that price? There simply also have to be further compromises. Cheaper interior. More options. A base Model 3 is going to be the same as a base BMW 3-Series. A CAR THAT NOBODY WANTS!

Also the Model 3 will probably spend more time at supercharger, because it has less range and it's faster to charge to something like 80% which is more range on a Model S with a larger battery.

 

[FluxCap]

They just closed the market completely. If this isn't the beginning of a ultra bear market I don't know what is. Hope is not a strategy. Plan accordingly.

Do as you wish, but selling when the herd is screaming sell has very often historically been a losing strategy. When TV pundits start saying "Is it time to sell the FANGs?!" without a thesis other than "they were up a lot," I like to take a step back, develop a contra-thesis, and put it into action. For example, I believe that investment dollars chase yield. We are still near the zero lower bound on US interest rates and "the dovish raise" means we won't see rates above 1% for quite a while. This means saving cash makes investors almost nothing, so there is no yield there. Emerging markets (and yes China is still emerging) are volatile and precarious, so while their may be fits of yield, there is great risk. Yield comes from growing companies that have big runways and defensible competitive advantages in mature, relatively stable markets. The US the only such market in the world right now.

And to paraphrase the Ghostbusters, "Who you gonna own?"

Personally, I like the TANGs.

Tesla

Amazon

Netflix

Google

Why? Because over the next decade, I see them continuing to grow from positions of strength, with solid managers at the helm who have lived through two ACTUAL bear markets and survived, while disrupting ancient and dying industries, creating new avenues of prosperity, generating revenues, profits...and yield.

This is not dot-com. This is not credit default swaps and inflated real estate. This is a boring, flattish market in which only a few good companies will win. But that's fine with me, as long as I own the good ones.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Do as you wish, but selling when the herd is screaming sell has very often historically been a losing strategy. When TV pundits start saying "Is it time to sell the FANGs?!" without a thesis other than "they were up a lot," I like to take a step back, develop a contra-thesis, and put it into action. For example, I believe that investment dollars chase yield. We are still near the zero lower bound on US interest rates and "the dovish raise" means we won't see rates above 1% for quite a while. This means saving cash makes investors almost nothing, so there is no yield there. Emerging markets (and yes China is still emerging) are volatile and precarious, so while their may be fits of yield, there is great risk. Yield comes from growing companies that have big runways and defensible competitive advantages in mature, relatively stable markets. The US the only such market in the world right now.

And to paraphrase the Ghostbusters, "Who you gonna own?"

Personally, I like the TANGs.

Tesla

Amazon

Netflix

Google

Why? Because over the next decade, I see them continuing to grow from positions of strength, with solid managers at the helm who have lived through two ACTUAL bear markets and survived, while disrupting ancient and dying industries, creating new avenues of prosperity, generating revenues, profits...and yield.

This is not dot-com. This is not credit default swaps and inflated real estate. This is a boring, flattish market in which only a few good companies will win. But that's fine with me, as long as I own the good ones.

Those are pretty much the best long term plays for sure. Not 100% sure about Netflix. Stay the course. Good luck.

 

[sundaymorning]

The CSI 300 crashed last summer and settled around 3000 in late September (from a high of around 5300). Yes U.S. markets got a bit jittery around that time but cooler heads ultimately prevailed while people shouted gloom and doom from the rooftops.

Chinese markets seem to be re-testing those lows from last year. Almost there...

It's the market, anything could happen. If it's not the China gloom then it's the Russian doom, or Cremia apacolypse, or oil disaster, let's not forget FX and Feds, etc. sitting pat and enjoying the ride here. China is starting to shift from manufacturing to a service economy. Although production is contracting, their service sector shows expansion, although it's down compared to last month..

 

[dc_h]

Agreed. China sentiment will hurt market, but affect US indirectly with impact to energy and commodities and related support industries. Continue China crash could push oil down to $30. Seems like oil Tesla connection perception has largely been broken, but China and energy situation does present general market risk.

It's the market, anything could happen. If it's not the China gloom then it's the Russian doom, or Cremia apacolypse, or oil disaster, let's not forget FX and Feds, etc. sitting pat and enjoying the ride here. China is starting to shift from manufacturing to a service economy. Although production is contracting, their service sector shows expansion, although it's down compared to last month..

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

I've cleaned out a lot of items from the thread, parceling posts out to Tesla BEV Competition Developments , Faraday Future and Snippiness as appropriate. Apologies for incomplete or overzealous moderation.

Two pleas for the new year:

1. Be courteous. Post about ideas, not about your fellow TMC members.
2. Post in the correct thread. While anything might, in principle, affect TSLA price, please try to keep conversations that have their own threads (e.g. BEV competitors) there rather than here. We get QUITE enough posts here already. Putting everything here makes anything older than about 2 days unfindable.

 

[Intl Professor]

I am confused by anyone who looks only to the growth rate in China. Economists here and there have been talking about the need for China to change from an export-driven economy to one which is more consumer-oriented like us. That it is finally happening should be no surprise. Going from a 7.1 to a 6.9 percent growth rate is not the end of the world.

As someone said earlier, there are problems controlling the economy. The one that stands out is the drive for local governments to use land at their disposal for corrupt or thoughtless purposes. The overall management is still powerful and much more transparent than it used to be, although I think some of the knee-jerk reactions to assist the securities markets are ill conceived.

 

[esk8mw]

I'm dumbfounded that a tesla owner would make such a statement. Musk isn't selling EV's as being just better for the environment. He made the claim that EV's are just plain better than ICE's. The bolt will accelerate faster than the sonic, ride smoother, handle better, and cost less to own and operate. It will simply be a better car than the sonic.

someone compared 100k versa sales to 17k leaf sales in another thread, but failed to recognize that the leaf sold despite having such a crippled range. The Bolt won't be viewed as being crippled and should fair better - setting 17k as the floor for their sales.

How is this relevant to Tesla's short-term price? I'm saying that the "cheerleaders" are wrong to pooh-pooh the Bolt, but right that it won't affect the model 3's future. Some in the market will recognize the Bolt's positives attributes and incorrectly see it as beating the model 3 to market. So no net gain/loss.

I think we are largely in agreement, actually. Evs obviously can do all those things better. I'm a gear head coming from bmw m3s to tesla because the model s is better in almost every way.

the problem for the bolt, imo, is that I don't think it will not do many things better than a car half its price, as I've stated. This makes taking sales from former ice guys like myself very difficult. I don't understand your leaf argument. I never said it will sell literally 0 units. As I've stated, there's always a market for green things, even at a large premium, so they will have some lackluster sales. If they built something compelling then their potential customer pool would be much larger.

 

[jeewee3000]

The after hours stock value of 221 dropped to 213$ instantly on premarket. Buying opportunity or further drop today?

 

[justthateasy]

The after hours stock value of 221 dropped to 213$ instantly on premarket. Buying opportunity or further drop today?

Just when I thought we'd be able to catch just a small break I check the pre-market numbers and see TSLA and every other stock getting slammed. It's such a great feeling starting off the first week of the year with this much of a loss.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

The after hours stock value of 221 dropped to 213$ instantly on premarket. Buying opportunity or further drop today?

Chinese stock exchange fell apart today after less than 30 mins of trading.
This is setting a new record for the Chinese stock exchange.
A possible explanation for that might be that at the end of this week big funds are allowed to sell some of their stock holdings they have not been allowed to sell during the last months.
What we see right now in advance of that event might be retail investors selling in advance of the big funds.
Will be interesting what the big funds will do end of this week/early next week.

The calls I purchased in anticipation of good Q4 delivery numbers crashed and are worthless.

BTW Sorros talking about a financial crisis like 2008 does not worry me.
What bothers me is that he might have taken a position accordingly an market participants might agree to bet the same way.

Looking for a day with more than 10% down for TSLA during the next two weeks.

Company is still great, but the company is not the stock.

Anybody buying short term calls or holding short term calls?

Update:
Now TSLA down more than 4% in Europe.

Update2:
Fossil fuels at it's best again in California.

 

[Scott Ales]

If I hadn't taken such a heavy pounding after the MX launch I would be excited about acquiring some LEAPS should this downtrend continue. My wounds are mostly healed now and the amount of red for me is limited! For those of you who have the liquidity this could be a fantastic opportunity. Picking an entry point you're satisfied with might be tricky but the stars seem to be falling out of place right now for TSLA. There seems to be more of a likelihood of a short term collapse of general marketplace confidence which we all know will continue to hammer companies like TSLA. Given a continuation of world events like the last few months there doesn't seem to be a floor either. I have just a little stomach and liquidity that I will put at risk but not until it drops to the mid-$100s. We have 14 exotic and collector cars going to an auction next Saturday which may produce some play money that I would throw at it too!

Good luck everyone!

Totally in love with my AP MS by the way! One week old and so much better than our 2013 version. I still look for reasons to drive it too!

 

[AlMc]

Do as you wish, but selling when the herd is screaming sell has very often historically been a losing strategy. When TV pundits start saying "Is it time to sell the FANGs?!" without a thesis other than "they were up a lot," I like to take a step back, develop a contra-thesis, and put it into action. For example, I believe that investment dollars chase yield. We are still near the zero lower bound on US interest rates and "the dovish raise" means we won't see rates above 1% for quite a while. This means saving cash makes investors almost nothing, so there is no yield there. Emerging markets (and yes China is still emerging) are volatile and precarious, so while their may be fits of yield, there is great risk. Yield comes from growing companies that have big runways and defensible competitive advantages in mature, relatively stable markets. The US the only such market in the world right now.

And to paraphrase the Ghostbusters, "Who you gonna own?"

Personally, I like the TANGs.

Tesla

Amazon

Netflix

Google

Why? Because over the next decade, I see them continuing to grow from positions of strength, with solid managers at the helm who have lived through two ACTUAL bear markets and survived, while disrupting ancient and dying industries, creating new avenues of prosperity, generating revenues, profits...and yield.

This is not dot-com. This is not credit default swaps and inflated real estate. This is a boring, flattish market in which only a few good companies will win. But that's fine with me, as long as I own the good ones.

I like FAT MAN:

Facebook
Apple
Tesla

Microsoft
Alphabet
Netflix

 

[ZachShahan]

Wow, lots of acrimony today, but today's action is pretty much par for the course with TSLA.

In the current plateau, TSLA has had a high of around 290 and a low of around 180. The midpoint: 230. Shares traded close to 240 last week, now down to 223... looking at the big picture not much to see here.

The surprise macro event in China (lower industrial output reported) undoubtedly had some influence and the headlines were swamped with "China panic" news this morning as Asian markets took a pounding. At this point I still believe that short term trading in shares and options of TSLA is foolhardy, given the unpredictability of Tesla Motors' timeline on accomplishing goals. They get stuff done. When they get stuff done is really difficult to pinpoint (Model X, Dual Motor torque sleep, Autopilot...).

I basically never feel safe selling TSLA (don't remember last time I did). Maybe if it shoots up to 310 and hits a wall. But have been waiting to see if things fall apart in some way and it crashes, or the market acts crazy (this week) and provides a good buying opportunity (I added to my holdings yesterday and now that I've sold some other stock, may even get more today or tomorrow).

Buying opportunities, but would have to get pretty high or I'd have to find out about a *huge* problem in order to sell.

 

[ZachShahan]

One near term catalyst you didn't mention specifically mention is positive free cash flow. In the last earnings call, when asked about FCF, Deepak said we'd update during the next earnings call, then Elon interjected saying their 'aspiration' is for FCF in Q1. Just logically thinking about this, if they don't quite make FCF in Q1, I would think their chances are very high they will be in Q2. Does anyone think positive FCF could be the fiercest force for a surge to towards and potentially past ATH's this year? Don't the bears know this is a real possibility?

On the last call, Deepak mentioned that expenses will definitely be less in 2016 compared to 2015. Deepak mentioned they are spending a good amount of money in Q4 relating to the X tooling/ramping up. He also mentioned a couple earnings calls ago that positive FCF will coincide with volume production of X.

Yes, I think that could likely be the instrumental spark.

- - - Updated - - -

Anecdotally, I'm at 100% of Leaf owners I've talked to who eventually will buy a Model 3 to replace their Leaf. The Bolt will probably get some sales in due to it likely releasing before the Model 3. Past that, they may very well be dead in the water at that price point and no fast charging network. Same with all the other providers, Bolt/Gen2 Leaf owners will be in for a horrible surprise when their 50 kw chademo / combo CCS chargers take over an hour to hit 80% of their vehicle's charge on road trips, assuming they live in one of the two US corridors with acceptable chademo infrastructure. I'm sure that hour charge will be fun in the dealer parking lot, too. Gen II Leaf owners will be in for a horrible surprise when their air-cooled batteries drop tens of miles of range per year. Oh, and hope that they don't run into another single charging owner at those stations either as the vast majority of chademo / combo CCS chargers are a single stall only.

The dealership model is reason enough to stretch for a Model 3 even if the vehicles are equivalent otherwise. I can't wait to get rid of my Leaf even though I love it more than any ICE I've ever owned.

Just since I love you guys & gals so much: yeah, we polled >2000 EV owners and EV enthusiasts looking to go electric soon. The results won't surprise you, but they will back up your argument. Report should be published this weekend (if we can get everything tied up in time).

- - - Updated - - -

The Bolt price is promoted as $30K after the federal tax credit. So the real price will be $37.5K. This is also clearly a starting price, which already is 2.5K higher than the projected Model 3 price.

I am not negative at all. This is just purely practical question - knowing what we know about the two manufacturers and their products, I just do not see anybody buying Chevy Bolt over Model 3, leave along planned maximum yearly production of 30K Chevy Bolts making any dent in Tesla's Model 3 sales. This line of thinking has zero credibility and no historical precedence as far as I am concerned.

There are a number of people who will buy the Bolt (based on our research, at least), but a lot more who are waiting for the Model 3. Of course, most sensible people who get a taste of the Bolt without a super-fast charging network will soon be thinking about the Model 3.

It's unclear why GM has a 30,000/yr production target. A fairly highly ranked GM person I talked to said it definitely wasn't due to battery supply constraints (I'm still not sure she knew the reason, though). I'm guessing GM is being conservative and knows as well as us that many are going to wait for the Model 3. I hope GM is prepared to at least produce 50,000 if demand is there, but we'll see.

 

[ZachShahan]

I think the small uptick is due to this - Tesla confirms the Model 3 is on track and reaffirms unveiling in March | Electrek

I think the uptick is people correcting for a steep drop in price that obviously went too far.

The Model 3 has been on track for a long time. We got several comments about this in the 2nd half of last year. Nothing new here. Would be surprised if the uptick was due to yet another reiteration of the obvious.

- - - Updated - - -

Just when I thought we'd be able to catch just a small break I check the pre-market numbers and see TSLA and every other stock getting slammed. It's such a great feeling starting off the first week of the year with this much of a loss.

I'm loving it. I was expecting a bigger problem getting X production going, and a bigger drop. Still getting the opportunity to buy in at a low (imho) price, and feel confident about Tesla as a whole. Sold a decent bit of stock from another company last night after buying more TSLA, and wouldn't be too disappointed in an opportunity to get TSLA at an even lower price today than yesterday.

 

[FluxCap]

I like FAT MAN:

Facebook
Apple
Tesla

Microsoft
Alphabet
Netflix

I love that, Al. Unless it portends doom .

So the first week of January looked like market panic, which happens. Question is, do I have the cojones to continue to DCA? I'll let you know.

Right now I'm feeling like this gnashing of teeth will not be reflected once earnings season kicks up, because US consumers don't really care whether some traders lose 5 or 10% on their stocks. But they do like cheap gas.