Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[optimus]

Agreed. Although technically this is the quiet period before earnings, Lutz's accusation does provide Musk the opportunity to speak out to correct misinformation as he has done in the past. Obviously, Musk does not think the Model X is unbuildable if he plans to build 1000 per week by next quarter.

It should be noted that a search of this site using the keywords "misalignment", "malaligment", "door malalignment" doesn't return much. If this were truly a problem, I would have expected to see more evidence by now. Can someone provide evidence for this? Otherwise, its time to figure out what's for breakfast.

 

[Drax7]

My view on Necessary conditions to arrest downtrend during ER and restore confidence.
1. Model X ramp is now fine and going exponential
2. Positive fcf in q1 or at tail end of q1.
3. 50% sales growth in 2016 over 2015.
4. A decent q4 , with a decent cash balance on the books .
5. No mention of Mars


these might not be sufficient conditions anyways to arrest the negative sentiment.

 

[jhm]

Tesla Mowers

Saturday speculation...

Consider the opportunity for Tesla to develop an autonomous electric lawnmower. Yes, it's every suburban homeowner's dream, just sit back while the lawnmower does the yard all by itself. But I think there is a much bigger opportunity than that.

What is needed is a professional grade lawnmower that can operate 2000 hours per year with minimal human oversight. Such a product would offset about $30k/yr in lawn service labor. (If minimum wage is increased to $15/hour, then total labors savings could be even more.) Moreover, this mower would be cheaper to operate and maintain for the same reasons that favor an electric vehicle over a gas vehicle. Operations would be quieter and could be overnight. This adds value to certain client. Imagine for example that you are Walt Disney World. You already pay a premium to mower park lawns after closing hours which requires substantial lighting, and you definitely want to keep the noise down at the resorts. So a client like Disney would find enormous value in owning a fleet of Tesla Mowers.

Full autonomy implies very high tech capabilities. Mowing patterns can be systematically varied to avoid creation of ruts and other damage to lawns. Monitoring the uptake of clipping can be conveyed as geographical information to the lawn service provider. This data can be used to check for watering issues and to optimize the mowing schedule. Other sensors can be added to the mower to sample and map out the health of the lawn.

Gas mowers are in fact significant sources of pollution, emitting as much pollution in one hour as gas auto does in 100 miles of travel. So in 2000 hours of operation, the Tesla Mower could offset about 200,000 mile of auto emmissions.

So one Tesla Mower designed to operate for 10k hours or more would save over $150k in labor plus saving in fuel and maintenance, offset 1 million miles of auto pollution, and offer quiet and overnight solutions to clients. I figure that this mower could easily command a price in range of $50k to $100k.

So this opportunity leverages Tesla's capabilities in EVs, robotics, and autopilot software. Autonomous vehicles may encounter regulatory obstacles for years, but robotic lawncare technology can be deployed with much fewer safety and legal obstacles. So the uptake fully autonomous Tesla Mowers could be rapid and years ahead of fully autonomous autos.

And if you like this idea, the opportunities in agriculture and construction for fully autonomous tractors are even larger.

For now, enjoy a leisurely winter Saturday. No need to mower that lawn today.

 

[hoang51]

Such fantasy of Tesla making a lawn mower is very late to the market. They're also battery powered and network accessible. Do a search with Google "lawn mower automatic" and it won't make any sense to enter such market. I would also assume low profit margins too.

 

[JRP3]

I think Musk already has enough distractions. http://www.autoblog.com/2016/02/04/it-sure-looks-like-elon-musk-is-now-doing-security-in-brazil/

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Saturday speculation...

Consider the opportunity for Tesla to develop an autonomous electric lawnmower. Yes, it's every suburban homeowner's dream, just sit back while the lawnmower does the yard all by itself. But I think there is a much bigger opportunity than that.

Sorry, what?!?!?!?!

 

[Krugerrand]

IMO if it is a sensor calibration issue that requires overpaid engineer's time...

It's been widely publicized and discussed that Tesla generally pays less to their engineers than competitors. Or do you have some information that sensor engineers get paid more at Tesla than other engineers or those at other companies in The Valley?

- - - Updated - - -

I think Musk already has enough distractions. http://www.autoblog.com/2016/02/04/it-sure-looks-like-elon-musk-is-now-doing-security-in-brazil/

LOL! How long until that gets added to the bear arguments...4...3...2...

 

[ev-enthusiast]

IMO this is currently a perfect setup for the shorts, it's that simple. Everybody here (including me) should have seen this coming. We failed. This cost people here thousands of $, paper losses or real losses, I do not care. I am just thinking again about this Eds bashing here some time ago, this was ridiculous!!! This is no open discussion culture, this is not good.
The Model X is late, there was some trouble with suppliers, after some initial deliveries ramp has not been accelerating, lots of Xs at SCs for issues, potential FWD issues is a great story everybody admitting it sounds plausible Can't blame shorts playing this card!

My plan is to hold on to my protective puts till ER, will think about what to do with the puts right before the ER.
BTW my long position down again big time

Either fundamentals or TA, I do not know what might put in a short term bottom soon. What do Fib numbers currently tell us? Thank's in advance!

 

[30seconds]

It's been widely publicized and discussed that Tesla generally pays less to their engineers than competitors. Or do you have some information that sensor engineers get paid more at Tesla than other engineers or those at other companies in The Valley?

- - - Updated - - -



LOL! How long until that gets added to the bear arguments...4...3...2...

he is launching robot security services driving Teslas and controlled by the low earth orbit satellite network that SpaceX is putting up.

 

[traxila]

IMO this is currently a perfect setup for the shorts, it's that simple. Everybody here (including me) should have seen this coming. We failed. This cost people here thousands of $, paper losses or real losses, I do not care. I am just thinking again about this Eds bashing here some time ago, this was ridiculous!!! This is no open discussion culture, this is not good.
The Model X is late, there was some trouble with suppliers, after some initial deliveries ramp has not been accelerating, lots of Xs at SCs for issues, potential FWD issues is a great story everybody admitting it sounds plausible Can't blame shorts playing this card!

My plan is to hold on to my protective puts till ER, will think about what to do with the puts right before the ER.
BTW my long position down again big time

There is a reason that 'financial advisors' always leave themselves an out by saying you should only invest what you can afford to lose 100%. Of course, their very next statement will be that you should be 100% invested or you are a loser. LOL.

I think this thread is simply too fixated on all the 'mistakes' that Tesla has made. It seems to me that the biggest mistake that Tesla has made as far as this thread is concerned is that TSLA is getting spanked, and spanked hard. If TSLA was still holding its own above 220, what would Tesla's mistakes be them?

Overall, this has little to do with Tesla or even TSLA. This has to do with an overvalued stock market, asset inflation and a possible (probable?) transition to an equities bear market. The speculative (yes TSLA is a speculative stock) stocks in such an environment are ALWAYS hit the hardest. 50% is a pretty common haircut. Sometimes that happens to stocks overnight (see LNKD). 80% happens. And if the company is caught with its pants down when the SHTF then 100% is not uncommon.

Sectors and even financials do not even matter anymore. We have market leaders in the solar industry that are growing 40 to 80 percent yoy, are profitable and are trading for single digit PE. They are getting obliterated (of course, there may be other reasons for this, but let's not talk politics).

I think Tesla is executing pretty well. My biggest problem with the X is that they should have made it a foot longer, 200 mile range be damned. 180 would have worker fine with the current supercharger network. But there are other high priced CUV out there with the exact same and more issues - yet they sell. The Model X drives spectacularly, is ultracool and will sell very well. Tesla got a gigafactory coming on line and a whole new revenue source from the powerwalls about to ramp. Model 3 reveal is around the corner. AND they got the secret weapon lawnmower they are about to launch. You have no idea what happens when the grass meets the blades!

If Tesla keeps this up, TSLA might even come around. I'm betting they will.

 

[Spidy]

Saturday speculation...

Consider the opportunity for Tesla to develop an autonomous electric lawnmower. Yes, it's every suburban homeowner's dream, just sit back while the lawnmower does the yard all by itself. But I think there is a much bigger opportunity than that.

I already have one of those in my garden

 

[McMuggets]

There is a reason that 'financial advisors' always leave themselves an out by saying you should only invest what you can afford to lose 100%. Of course, their very next statement will be that you should be 100% invested or you are a loser. LOL.

I think this thread is simply too fixated on all the 'mistakes' that Tesla has made. It seems to me that the biggest mistake that Tesla has made as far as this thread is concerned is that TSLA is getting spanked, and spanked hard. If TSLA was still holding its own above 220, what would Tesla's mistakes be them?

Overall, this has little to do with Tesla or even TSLA. This has to do with an overvalued stock market, asset inflation and a possible (probable?) transition to an equities bear market. The speculative (yes TSLA is a speculative stock) stocks in such an environment are ALWAYS hit the hardest. 50% is a pretty common haircut. Sometimes that happens to stocks overnight (see LNKD). 80% happens. And if the company is caught with its pants down when the SHTF then 100% is not uncommon.

Sectors and even financials do not even matter anymore. We have market leaders in the solar industry that are growing 40 to 80 percent yoy, are profitable and are trading for single digit PE. They are getting obliterated (of course, there may be other reasons for this, but let's not talk politics).

I think Tesla is executing pretty well. My biggest problem with the X is that they should have made it a foot longer, 200 mile range be damned. 180 would have worker fine with the current supercharger network. But there are other high priced CUV out there with the exact same and more issues - yet they sell. The Model X drives spectacularly, is ultracool and will sell very well. Tesla got a gigafactory coming on line and a whole new revenue source from the powerwalls about to ramp. Model 3 reveal is around the corner. AND they got the secret weapon lawnmower they are about to launch. You have no idea what happens when the grass meets the blades!

If Tesla keeps this up, TSLA might even come around. I'm betting they will.

I see Porsche Cayenne and Macan SUV's daily. There are so many of these purchased for about $130-160K when optioned fully. Pretty trophy wives driving around the family etc. I really think when it is known the Model X is the safest production car you can shuttle your kids around in, we are going to see explosive demand for it. Production speed to satisfy demand will be the issue. However, the Model X growing pains and ramp-up seem to be very similar to the Model S back in the day. It is just getting way more press right now. The build quality of the first X's coming out are arguably better than the first S's that arrived, and those who own the X's say the interior exceeds even the high-end Model S interior seats. I am seriously going to trade in my Model S P85D for a Model X once the production ramp get's going and I have a confirmed reservation for the Model 3. No need for two sedans in one household.

Here are some great owner videos on their supposed "unbuildable" Model X's:

Tesla Signature Model X - YouTube

Tesla Model X Signature Edition Full Walkthrough and Review - YouTube

Model X hands-on - its News from the Frunk episode 55! (repost) - YouTube

What Its Like To Drive The Tesla Model X - YouTube


Also, I am being told amongst Chinese circles (mainland Chinese people who are here for work in Alberta due to oil industry... mostly from the takeover of several of our oil companies) that they think the Model X is going to be a big hit in China. Many of their family are religiously following the Model X news, because it is so technologically advanced, useful for high-end shuttling, and flashier (falcon doors). The executive shuttling feel vs. the Model S is worth the extra $5000USD or so difference and thus the Model X is probably going to do better than S in China. The main reason why the Model S did not do as well in China is because, for a car priced in that range, Chinese executives are far more concerned with luxurious feel of the second row where they usually ride while they are driven around. This is evidenced by ridiculous (by western standards) designs, some concepts with actual aquariums in the back row etc. Also, if you remember the "executive rear seats" option was added on shortly after news broke that Tesla had a problem with China sales of the Model S. This time around, Tesla has it right for the huge Chinese market.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Alsop's is a public figure who has a history with Elon Musk. Alsop is bitter about missing out on X.com (PayPal).


The letter Alsop wrote about the Model X launch event was very public and went beyond being critical of Tesla. He basically called Elon was a fool, incapable of organizing a launch event or a quality product. As a wealthy public figure, this was in very poor taste. Imagine the CEO of a major company complaining about a CEO of another company inviting him to dinner, and only taking him to a medium quality restaurant, then saying his company must be poorly run if it's anything like the CEO's judgement when choosing which restaurant to take him to.


1. It was bad form for Alsop to write that letter.
2. It is likely Elon and Alsop have other history that goes beyond this letter.
3. Alsop is clearly holds a grudge against Elon for not getting in on PayPal.

I recommend everyone read this article from 2005.

So You Want To Be a Venture Capitalist


A noteworthy Tweet, without any context from Alsop.

Here is another good one :

Back in 1991, famed computer pundit Stewart Alsop claimed that the last mainframe would be unplugged inside of 5 years (TechRepublic)

 

[colettimj]

IMO if it is a sensor calibration issue that requires overpaid engineer's time to calibrate each car. It is unrampable.

If this is true, why wouldn't they manually calibrate now while working to develop the automation as they ramp. Better to get cars out as they can, no?

 

[McMuggets]

He missed out on X.com? And now he's missing out on another X product from Musk? The irony of it all.

Alsop's is a public figure who has a history with Elon Musk. Alsop is bitter about missing out on X.com (PayPal).


The letter Alsop wrote about the Model X launch event was very public and went beyond being critical of Tesla. He basically called Elon was a fool, incapable of organizing a launch event or a quality product. As a wealthy public figure, this was in very poor taste. Imagine the CEO of a major company complaining about a CEO of another company inviting him to dinner, and only taking him to a medium quality restaurant, then saying his company must be poorly run if it's anything like the CEO's judgement when choosing which restaurant to take him to.


1. It was bad form for Alsop to write that letter.
2. It is likely Elon and Alsop have other history that goes beyond this letter.
3. Alsop is clearly holds a grudge against Elon for not getting in on PayPal.

I recommend everyone read this article from 2005.

So You Want To Be a Venture Capitalist

 

[optimus]

another good read...

What is it like to work with Elon Musk? - Quora

This part was particularly interesting:

"So for those who ask the question, this is in my opinion the true character of Elon Musk. Undeterred in the face of all odds, undaunted by the fear of failure, and forged in the battlefields of some of the most terrifyingly technical, and capital intensive challenges that any human being could choose to take on. Somehow he comes out alive, every time - with the other guy's head on a platter."

I'm not saying that has anything to do with Tesla or the Model X ramp. Model X ramp is much tougher than launching a 14 story 1st stage booster, deploying 13 satellites into orbit, landing back on Cape Canaveral. Much tougher...Perhaps I'll sell.

 

[sundaymorning]

Elon Musk in Paris 2016 - YouTube

Fastforward to 4:20

Video is from Jan 29, 2016. In my opinion, it is very unlikely that there will be some material change in Elon's assessment of the situation between this video and earnings. My belief is that he will reiterate this guidance on the CC. Just a heads up...

Can anyone else confirm that if this video is in fact what Elon has stated on Jan 29th? It appears he is planning on ramping up X by 1,000 units a week and S by the same comparable number during the 2nd Quarter. If this is in fact true, it is very good news for longs!

 

[jhm]

Such fantasy of Tesla making a lawn mower is very late to the market. They're also battery powered and network accessible. Do a search with Google "lawn mower automatic" and it won't make any sense to enter such market. I would also assume low profit margins too.

Yeah, that's what they said when Apple introduced the iPhone. Alot of landscaper are still paying workers just to push lawnmower. Yes, there are little robotic mowers for homeowners, but there's plenty of room for a real professional solutions. This critical question is whether Musk could get excited by the challenge.

 

[demetri]

Just want to put in my two cents. I was an X production holder that was on waiting list for signature and was put on about 6 months ago. Was told last week by DS that it was on its way then a few days later was told it had arrived. So we are picking it up this coming Friday, could not do it earlier due to work. I believe I am one of the last sigs 774 vin because I am on the east coast. So I think the ramp is starting in earnest. We should see production deliveries soon. Elon will give is color on call. I am hoping that we get positive guidance on TE, giga, m3 and X/S numbers. Long time stock holder, waited over 1.5 years for my S, after 73k miles still love it even though it has no autopilot and it's a 60. The X is going to be the hottest SUV to own once reviews and people see it around.
World of hurt due to stock price but I am still confident in Elon to see his vision come to fruition.
And I will say it again the m3 is going to have huge reservations based on the people I know that are waiting to put down a deposit.
And for what's it worth I still think the m3 is going to come earlier than everyone thinks. Elon has learned to temper his predictions publicly especially now that such scrutiny is placed on every word he says and every little thing that happens to Tesla. They are even reporting little fires in the factory, trespassing on giga property etc. insane!

 

[CatB]

Yeah, that's what they said when Apple introduced the iPhone. Alot of landscaper are still paying workers just to push lawnmower. Yes, there are little robotic mowers for homeowners, but there's plenty of room for a real professional solutions. This critical question is whether Musk could get excited by the challenge.

Maybe he'll get interested if we tell him we want it to:
- use AI to detect and extricate weeds without the use of herbicides
- network with and send instructions to a follow-on aerator machine for precision targeting of problem areas
- sense other environmental indicators (can it detect prevalence of acid rain?) and forward it with geospatial data to build a world-wide climate monitoring control center