Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mrdoubleb]

OK, so 2 interesting pieces of data for some perspective.

The Model S was the top selling luxury sedan in the US for 2015 by a significant margin. I know, i know, not really news to us, but I am quite sure this hasn't sunk in outside of TMC yet. In fact, the S was the only car in the segment which grew sales and it seems it did so at the expense of the others. Remember how in 2013 people were saying sales will fall off a cliff after the early adopters? Yeah...

Second, according to our ever amazing TMC Europe registration tally (seriously impressive work guys how you diligently collect this from the official sources month after month!), 2016 January deliveries outpaced 2015 January. Yes, the UK is an estimate and yes, Switzerland is still missing, but at the very least it does not appear to be behind 2015. So much for demand pulled forward to meet 2015 YE targets and January being lackluster.

I hope Tesla will be smart about the ER and highlight te strong fundamentals.

 

[AudubonB]

Mod note:
Yes, this is the weekend and we do allow for a little slack but -

* there are lots of nice threads for discussing customer rudeness and lawnmowers and other minutiae. I'm not going to spend the time porting the above threads over but I <very mild-mannerly> implore all such discussion find those appropriate venues </not so very mild-mannerly>

Thank you.....

 

[dalalsid]

Such fantasy of Tesla making a lawn mower is very late to the market. They're also battery powered and network accessible. Do a search with Google "lawn mower automatic" and it won't make any sense to enter such market. I would also assume low profit margins too.

All of them have drawbacks. They are in roomba territory, not Neato territory. Tesla can easily compete in this market. I would get one. I pay 100$/month * 9 months for lawn service. I'd be willing to pay 3 years worth of service for a robot that would take care of things hassle free (one time setup, no blade replacements needed, no battery replacements needed).

 

[dmunjal]

There is a reason that 'financial advisors' always leave themselves an out by saying you should only invest what you can afford to lose 100%. Of course, their very next statement will be that you should be 100% invested or you are a loser. LOL.

I think this thread is simply too fixated on all the 'mistakes' that Tesla has made. It seems to me that the biggest mistake that Tesla has made as far as this thread is concerned is that TSLA is getting spanked, and spanked hard. If TSLA was still holding its own above 220, what would Tesla's mistakes be them?

Overall, this has little to do with Tesla or even TSLA. This has to do with an overvalued stock market, asset inflation and a possible (probable?) transition to an equities bear market. The speculative (yes TSLA is a speculative stock) stocks in such an environment are ALWAYS hit the hardest. 50% is a pretty common haircut. Sometimes that happens to stocks overnight (see LNKD). 80% happens. And if the company is caught with its pants down when the SHTF then 100% is not uncommon.

Sectors and even financials do not even matter anymore. We have market leaders in the solar industry that are growing 40 to 80 percent yoy, are profitable and are trading for single digit PE. They are getting obliterated (of course, there may be other reasons for this, but let's not talk politics).

I think Tesla is executing pretty well. My biggest problem with the X is that they should have made it a foot longer, 200 mile range be damned. 180 would have worker fine with the current supercharger network. But there are other high priced CUV out there with the exact same and more issues - yet they sell. The Model X drives spectacularly, is ultracool and will sell very well. Tesla got a gigafactory coming on line and a whole new revenue source from the powerwalls about to ramp. Model 3 reveal is around the corner. AND they got the secret weapon lawnmower they are about to launch. You have no idea what happens when the grass meets the blades!

If Tesla keeps this up, TSLA might even come around. I'm betting they will.

I feel the same way. Tesla has always had some bad news but usually fought that with execution and the SP was rewarded. The current issues aren't THAT bad in comparison but the macro environment is totally different.

Will the Fed continue to tighten monetary policy while the rest of the world is loosening it? The problem is that they will lose some credibility after just raising rates last December.

 

[maoing]

to meet 2015 YE target, TM mainly pulled forward US orders.

OK, so 2 interesting pieces of data for some perspective.

The Model S was the top selling luxury sedan in the US for 2015 by a significant margin. I know, i know, not really news to us, but I am quite sure this hasn't sunk in outside of TMC yet. In fact, the S was the only car in the segment which grew sales and it seems it did so at the expense of the others. Remember how in 2013 people were saying sales will fall off a cliff after the early adopters? Yeah...

Second, according to our ever amazing TMC Europe registration tally (seriously impressive work guys how you diligently collect this from the official sources month after month!), 2016 January deliveries outpaced 2015 January. Yes, the UK is an estimate and yes, Switzerland is still missing, but at the very least it does not appear to be behind 2015. So much for demand pulled forward to meet 2015 YE targets and January being lackluster.

I hope Tesla will be smart about the ER and highlight te strong fundamentals.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

特斯拉：今年3月将仅å‘布一款Model 3_IT与交通_cnBeta.COM

Interesting situation of semantics. This article says the Tesla contact, Alexis Georgeson said the rumor that Tesla will release 2 vehicles, one sedan and one SUV is untrue, but said Tesla will be releasing two versions of the Model 3. Perhaps a sedan and a truck (Model Y)?

 

[madodel]

IMO if it is a sensor calibration issue that requires overpaid engineer's time to calibrate each car. It is unrampable. This should've been done by machines and will increase the cost while reducing demand which brings about failure. We are supposed to be switching to Model 3 now and cash running out is becoming a question on everyone's mind. It's true that nothing is unrampable in engineering terms. But you can ramp something into bankruptcy due to cost. (There are plenty of dead corpses in silicon startup valley as examples)

Right now I am thinking, the current line produces 80k cars per year. A model 3 line can get to 500k car capacity at year 2023 at a ramp of 60k per year for 8 years. About 1.5x of the total current capex per year. (worst case. I know I onow Modelx is more complex)

What I was told is that the sensors are fine, it is the adhesive they used to attach them inside the doors. If it comes loose the sensing is then off and the doors have problems. They are using a new adhesive on new builds. Anyone know when that started?

 

[McMuggets]

What I was told is that the sensors are fine, it is the adhesive they used to attach them inside the doors. If it comes loose the sensing is then off and the doors have problems. They are using a new adhesive on new builds. Anyone know when that started?

Yes this is what I've been reading as well. Simple adhesive issue. The calibration and software is all a-ok. Sometimes it's the simple things that nobody thinks about (and definitely no software engineer would think about) like "will the glue we use work?". Thankfully it sounds like the issues reported by first-run Model X owners have been non-fatal and non-"death of the car" type issues. By the way, let's not forget many times before that new models of cars from established car manufacturers are usually fraught with many issues as well, but just don't get much press time. Millions of cars can get recalled and it gets a small 20 second news-snippet.... but if Tesla's falcon door closes funny or gets a garage door scraping up against it, or Elon cancels one douchey guys order... oh boy look out news! Front page material no doubt.

 

[mrdoubleb]

to meet 2015 YE target, TM mainly pulled forward US orders.

And you know this how?

 

[McMuggets]

Can You Guess 2015's Top-Selling Large Luxury Car in 2015 in the U.S.? -- The Motley Fool


Let's look at the luxury sedan market:

Seeing as how Model S pretty much trumps luxury sedan segment in the US... let's look at the luxury SUV market:

It doesn't take an Einstein to notice that the luxury SUV segment is way way larger than the sedan segment. Now, if Model X can hold it's own in the market you'll see that the potential is far greater than with Model S. If the X ends up becoming king of it's segment just like it's brother S... Tesla will have a ton of revenue. They just need to ramp things up with production.

 

[lango]

They are producing 1200 Model S per week and the delivery times now are months, so 1200 a week is the current rate. This is about 60000 a year. 85000 yearly rate will not be a problem at all once X gets to 500 a month. I think before this year they may need to take a decision how to improve the manufacturing. Demand is there for 100k units a year, imo the only risk for that would be a recession that would cause people to postpone their purchase of an expensive car.

 

[McMuggets]

They are producing 1200 Model S per week and the delivery times now are months, so 1200 a week is the current rate. This is about 60000 a year. 85000 yearly rate will not be a problem at all once X gets to 500 a month. I think before this year they may need to take a decision how to improve the manufacturing. Demand is there for 100k units a year, imo the only risk for that would be a recession that would cause people to postpone their purchase of an expensive car.

I thought the USA just reported the lowest unemployment rate in almost 8 years? Outside of China, the USA is the most important market for cars by far. I think that there may be a sympathetic feeling of recession because of stock market jitters, but overall it seems the US economy is quite resilient and could stand to grow substantially with cheap energy currently. I've detailed many pages back on US recessions correlated with high oil price shocks. Every time the US economy went into recession, oil was spiking in price about 6-9 months earlier, except for the dot-com bust. Every time oil was dirt cheap, the US economy expanded greatly and unemployment was low. Consuming nations like the USA get a net benefit from cheap energy prices.

 

[mrdoubleb]

They are producing 1200 Model S per week and the delivery times now are months, so 1200 a week is the current rate. This is about 60000 a year. 85000 yearly rate will not be a problem at all once X gets to 500 a month. I think before this year they may need to take a decision how to improve the manufacturing. Demand is there for 100k units a year, imo the only risk for that would be a recession that would cause people to postpone their purchase of an expensive car.

I'm sorry, I'd love to see 1200 Model S, but Elon's Paris video from about a week ago was linked a few posts back, where he said they are producing "about 1000" Model S a week.

Mind you, something that kind of went unnoticed, is that while Elon used to temper expectations by saying 2000 cars combined was the theoretical limit and realistically it would be 1600-1800, in this video he is talking about 1k S and 1k X. I think they are shooting for pushing production up to the max.

Wonder how the bears will try and spin that into "falling demand".

 

[lango]

I thought the USA just reported the lowest unemployment rate in almost 8 years? Outside of China, the USA is the most important market for cars by far. I think that there may be a sympathetic feeling of recession because of stock market jitters, but overall it seems the US economy is quite resilient and could stand to grow substantially with cheap energy currently. I've detailed many pages back on US recessions correlated with high oil price shocks. Every time the US economy went into recession, oil was spiking in price about 6-9 months earlier, except for the dot-com bust. Every time oil was dirt cheap, the US economy expanded greatly and unemployment was low. Consuming nations like the USA get a net benefit from cheap energy prices.

Yes, and also EU is recovering especially the south (Italy, France, Spain). And China could also still be growing, but at a low rate.

 

[optimus]

In my opinion, the current macro environment may have some benefits for Tesla. Given the significant decrease in share price, a secondary offering at this price point would not go over well given the amount of dilution necessary. For Tesla to grow and pay for large Cap-ex items such as the gigafactory and tooling for Model III, it will need to rely on profits from sales. Moreover, because money is no longer easy to come by, I expect they will be much more careful with expenditures. If they are able to pull off a 2K per week run rate as noted in the Paris video, this will result in yearly revenues of 10 Billion ignoring TE. Growth will occur instrinsically, dilution will be minimized, and shareholder value will be maximized. I would love to hear Dave T's or Curt's take on the current situation.

 

[Causalien]

To clarify, I did not mean to imply that the door sensors are currently calibrated by hand. Just say it'd be an example of over priced ramping.

This thiught came about from reading reports of many service calls that includes recalibrating door sensors.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

In my opinion, the current macro environment may have some benefits for Tesla. Given the significant decrease in share price, a secondary offering at this price point would not go over well given the amount of dilution necessary. For Tesla to grow and pay for large Cap-ex items such as the gigafactory and tooling for Model III, it will need to rely on profits from sales. Moreover, because money is no longer easy to come by, I expect they will be much more careful with expenditures. If they are able to pull off a 2K per week run rate as noted in the Paris video, this will result in yearly revenues of 10 Billion ignoring TE. Growth will occur instrinsically, dilution will be minimized, and shareholder value will be maximized. I would love to hear Dave T's or Curt's take on the current situation.

I don't expect Tesla to even try raising any additional equity until the SP is over the previous offering price of $242. A general goal that managers try to aim for, mainly with private firms but also applicable here, is for each financing round to have a higher valuation the previous round. I know Elon certainly has that goal with SpaceX and most-likely with Tesla. To some, $242 may seem almost out of reach, but with short interest at its highest level since 2013, the stock has a lot of quick growth potential. They also aren't in need of the funds immediately and are in a position where they can be a little patient. Also, even if Tesla achieves 2K weekly deliveries at some point this year, it won't reflect on the entire 52-week period. I think 75k-80k total deliveries is much more realistic, with 2016 revenues of ~$8.5-$9B when factoring in energy and servicing revenues.

 

[Causalien]

Alsop's is a public figure who has a history with Elon Musk. Alsop is bitter about missing out on X.com (PayPal).


The letter Alsop wrote about the Model X launch event was very public and went beyond being critical of Tesla. He basically called Elon was a fool, incapable of organizing a launch event or a quality product. As a wealthy public figure, this was in very poor taste. Imagine the CEO of a major company complaining about a CEO of another company inviting him to dinner, and only taking him to a medium quality restaurant, then saying his company must be poorly run if it's anything like the CEO's judgement when choosing which restaurant to take him to.


1. It was bad form for Alsop to write that letter.
2. It is likely Elon and Alsop have other history that goes beyond this letter.
3. Alsop is clearly holds a grudge against Elon for not getting in on PayPal.

I recommend everyone read this article from 2005.

So You Want To Be a Venture Capitalist


A noteworthy Tweet, without any context from Alsop.

View attachment 110564


Here is another good one :

Someone said this guy is a CeO? We should all try their product and the. publicly shame him while asking for refund.

 

[postpast]

Can You Guess 2015's Top-Selling Large Luxury Car in 2015 in the U.S.? -- The Motley Fool


Let's look at the luxury sedan market:
View attachment 110591

Seeing as how Model S pretty much trumps luxury sedan segment in the US... let's look at the luxury SUV market:

View attachment 110592


It doesn't take an Einstein to notice that the luxury SUV segment is way way larger than the sedan segment. Now, if Model X can hold it's own in the market you'll see that the potential is far greater than with Model S. If the X ends up becoming king of it's segment just like it's brother S... Tesla will have a ton of revenue. They just need to ramp things up with production.

Those charts aren't comparable at all, the Cuv/Suv chart includes smaller and lower end models. In fact the first eleven CUV's start at around half the price of the average large sedan listed. The only Suv/Cuv's on that list that are anywhere near the sales price of the Large Sedan Segment or the Model X are the Escalate, MB - GL, Cayenne and the Ranges. you can't compare a Model X the a RX the same way you cannot compare a Model S to a 3 series. The market appears about the same size, and some could argue that Escalade and GL buyers are not likely to move to a CUV, in which case the market would be much smaller.

 

[everman]

Just want to put in my two cents. I was an X production holder that was on waiting list for signature and was put on about 6 months ago. Was told last week by DS that it was on its way then a few days later was told it had arrived. So we are picking it up this coming Friday, could not do it earlier due to work. I believe I am one of the last sigs 774 vin because I am on the east coast. So I think the ramp is starting in earnest. We should see production deliveries soon. Elon will give is color on call. I am hoping that we get positive guidance on TE, giga, m3 and X/S numbers. Long time stock holder, waited over 1.5 years for my S, after 73k miles still love it even though it has no autopilot and it's a 60. The X is going to be the hottest SUV to own once reviews and people see it around.
World of hurt due to stock price but I am still confident in Elon to see his vision come to fruition.
And I will say it again the m3 is going to have huge reservations based on the people I know that are waiting to put down a deposit.
And for what's it worth I still think the m3 is going to come earlier than everyone thinks. Elon has learned to temper his predictions publicly especially now that such scrutiny is placed on every word he says and every little thing that happens to Tesla. They are even reporting little fires in the factory, trespassing on giga property etc. insane!

This is discouraging. Original signature reservation (now four years old) VIN #42x to Colorado Springs still no word on delivery. Last I checked Colorado was quite a bit closer to California than the east coast. :frown: