Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Noble Ninja]

1/29/16 short interest is now released. As I and many others have projected, short interest increased 1,178,261.

Granted, this is for 1/29/16 and we have seen a huge drop since then that could have led to some covering. I suspect we have many more shorts now though and not less.

New short interest 30,287,107 unbelievable.

So short interest went up as the PPS went down, and likely more short interest afterwards and the PPS went down even more, along with no sign of short covering? These shorts may be so extreme in their thinking that they run the risk of being burned on any decently positive news. Yes, I know some are currently sitting on large paper profits but unless the newer shorts (less profits) cover quickly on good news, the earlier shorts (larger profits) may cash out and raise the PPS for the newer shorts to lose out on.

 

[Intl Professor]

Musk

When I first started buying TSLA I hoped Musk would be the next Henry Ford. Bloomberg seems to agree. In the depths of our current despair, watch the video clip from today's page; it means nothing but it is cheerful:

Will the Tesla Model 3 Really Sell for $25,000? - Bloomberg Business

 

[maoing]

SCTY dropped 22% AH. Market has no mercy for any miss of MoMo stock.

 

[FredTMC]

- - - Updated - - -

SCTY dropped 22% AH. Market has no mercy for any miss of MoMo stock.

Yep. Weak guidance is killer

 

[Drax7]

SCTY dropped 22% AH. Market has no mercy for any miss of MoMo stock.

Scty beat fourth qtr eps and revenues, guided growth of 40% for 2016.
Missed nothing though apparently lower growth guidance.
Algos pick on this and destroy the stock.

 

[jesselivenomore]

SCTY dropped 22% AH. Market has no mercy for any miss of MoMo stock.

Any hint of slowdown in growth and you will be get crushed, especially for any company dependent on raising capital in this environment. 80k for 2016 is a necessity right now. Anything less and things could get ugly(ier).

 

[Drax7]

Any hint of slowdown in growth and you will be get crushed, especially for any company dependent on raising capital in this environment. 80k for 2016 is a necessity right now. Anything less and things could get ugly(ier).

Disney just had a massive quarter and the stock is getting hit.
Crazed environment

 

[ibcs]

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Yep. Weak guidance is killer

3 year low for Solar City stock price!

 

[anon]

Scty beat fourth qtr eps and revenues, guided growth of 40% for 2016.
Missed nothing though apparently lower growth guidance.
Algos pick on this and destroy the stock.

They already guided for only 40% growth in the last ER. I think it is impressive that they are maintaining that, given that the ITC now will not expire at the end of this year and hence there will be no rush to install solar at that time after all. So I don't understand the price collapse! Perhaps because they didn't provide firm increased guidance for 2017 and beyond, in light of the ITC.

 

[Drax7]

They already guided for only 40% growth in the last ER. I think it is impressive that they are maintaining that, given that the ITC now will not expire at the end of this year and hence there will be no rush to install solar at that time after all. So I don't understand the price collapse! Perhaps because they didn't provide firm increased guidance for 2017 and beyond, in light of the ITC.

Nobody is thinking anything, the algos pick up the word lower and
start selling in a void .

 

[jesselivenomore]

In a bull market environment stocks are rewarded for even "not that bad" news. In a bear market environment stocks are punished for news that is simply "not that great".

 

[dalalsid]

Disney just had a massive quarter and the stock is getting hit.
Crazed environment

I'll take the blame for that. I bought some at 100 and it has been downhill since.

 

[Noble Ninja]

They already guided for only 40% growth in the last ER. I think it is impressive that they are maintaining that, given that the ITC now will not expire at the end of this year and hence there will be no rush to install solar at that time after all. So I don't understand the price collapse! Perhaps because they didn't provide firm increased guidance for 2017 and beyond, in light of the ITC.

The market acts as if the ITC news back in December never happened. SCTY went up to about $58 shortly after the news, and after this 2016 downturn plus this ER is now at $20 (in AH). About 65% down in a month and a half.

 

[FredTMC]

Scty beat fourth qtr eps and revenues, guided growth of 40% for 2016.
Missed nothing though apparently lower growth guidance.
Algos pick on this and destroy the stock.

I don't follow SCTY. Did they lower their 2016 guidance or not?

 

[anon]

I don't follow SCTY. Did they lower their 2016 guidance or not?

No - 2016 guidance 1.25GW was reiterated from Q3.

 

[Drax7]

I don't follow SCTY. Did they lower their 2016 guidance or not?

They guided the same as before apparently, 40 % growth.
I don't follow them, just now since it affects tesla stock .

 

[esk8mw]

In this environment, is it even possible for Tesla to have a positive response to its earnings outside of a major unexpected event like Q4 CF positive (yes, I know this is basically impossible)?

- deliveries are baked in for Q4
- cash spend will be high, as promised, which freaks people out right now
- FCF positive Q1 is expected at this point, any deviation will punish the stock
- Guidance has to be super high, 50%+, or there will be a 20% kick in the face
- if super high guidance is given, it may not be believed based on history of downward revisions
- I don't think reassurance on X ramp will help much

Basically, the market right now wants super high growth but spending money to foster such growth is frowned upon. There is no such thing as a relief rally right now. The market does not appear to care how much a stock has already been hit or the extent to which bad news for tech stocks is already "priced in." I don't see how we win here.

Disclosure - I'm still super long with no protection - shares, short short-term puts and J17/J18 calls. I'm thinking of exiting all options positions at MASSIVE losses tomorrow, even as SCTY drags down TSLA to sub-$140 prior to earnings. I won't go short, though.

 

[MitchJi]

Ok, this is another bad news which isn't discussed. So now even TE is in a set-back mode?

Depends on who you listen to:

It just dawned on me that I believe that TE production is probably enough by itself to boost the SP after the ERCC. No idea how much or how long but I believe its almost a slam dunk we get a boost from this. Warning please don't trade with money that you can't afford to lose.

TSLA stated in the last ER, that TE production had been pushed from Q4 2015 to Q1 2016 because they shifted production from hand production in Fremont to an automated production line at the GF. Check the date of the article below :biggrin::

I believe it's a safe assumption that the automated production line is setup to produce at least as many packs as their existing car packs production line. The fact that it was rolling in mid December means two months of production before the ERCC. I also believe they don't need to be concerned with deliveries vs sales, as they do with cars. The only thing that I can think of that could mess this up is lack of cell availability.

Tesla battery system fires up in Irvine Co. office tower - The Orange County Register
Tesla battery system fires up in Irvine Co. office tower
Dec. 17, 2015

Doug Holte, president of Irvine Company Office Properties speaks to a small gathering before a crane was used to install 16 Tesla PowerPack battery systems that weigh 4,000 pounds each at an Irvine office tower Thursday. Irvine Company and Advanced Microgrid Solutions (AMS) teamed with SCE to install the batteries completing the first in what will be a fleet of Irvine Company Hybrid-Electric Buildings that will be used for grid support by Southern California Edison.

A 100-foot crane slowly maneuvered a white, 3,475-pound box around a palm tree and parking lot lamppost before gingerly setting the heavy case alongside four others behind a 15-story office tower in Irvine.

The Irvine Company, Southern California Edison and San Francisco-based Advanced Microgrid Solutions, an energy-storage systems provider, on Thursday launched a pilot project that company executives said will permanently change Southern California’s energy grid.

The real estate giant recently struck an agreement with the storage system provider to install Tesla Powerpack battery systems at more than 20 of the company’s Irvine office buildings, starting with the tower at 20 Pacifica.

Once complete, the “hybrid-electric” buildings will pull power from the grid when it is least expensive and, as demand peaks, draw from the energy stored in the batteries. The system will cut use of peak power by 25 percent, according to Rich Bluth, Irvine Co.’s vice president of energy management.

Eventually Irvine Co. plans to have batteries installed at its buildings portfolio-wide. The company has more than 500 office buildings in California.

AMS Chief Executive Officer Susan Kennedy credited tech darling Telsa, known primarily as a car company, for developing technology to create a “cleaner, more efficient, smarter, more sophisticated world.”

Tesla’s PowerPack batteries use the same technology the company uses for its electric cars.

Kennedy also gave kudos to the Irvine Co. for being a first adopter of the storage systems, which together are expected to store up to 10 megawatts of energy – enough to power 10,000 homes.

Southern California Edison signed on to the project after the San Onofre nuclear power plant closed.

“You usually don’t think of the words innovative, revolutionary and creative when you’re talking about an electric utility,” Kennedy said.

But its decision has spurred other utility companies to also consider out-of-the-box thinking, she said.

At times of peak energy demand, Edison will access the buildings’ 10-megawatt capacity to alleviate some of the pressure on the grid, company executives said. The system works by pushing stored power into the buildings where the batteries are installed.

“They’re going to use this whole fleet of batteries as a virtual power plant,” Bluth said.

 

[maoing]

Agreed.

Any hint of slowdown in growth and you will be get crushed, especially for any company dependent on raising capital in this environment. 80k for 2016 is a necessity right now. Anything less and things could get ugly(ier).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Sad to see the SolarCity SP move down post ER on not so bad news.
IMO this planet needs companies like SolarCity as much as Tesla Motors for a good future.
Tomorrow regular trading will be very interesting to see if the SolarCity drop during AH trading will be reversed or continued.