larmor
Active Member
I think if we can hold on till Model X configuration is available to public, and MX in tesla stores, then i predict TM website will break...
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Strange SP movements today. All the big volume movements seem to be to the upside, then we drift downwards on low volume.
If this trend continues, I'd expect a strong close on the day when volume picks up. You would think we would start to see some covering in advance of earnings as well for derisking and profit taking from the shorts. Maybe they will double down though, who knows. All bets are off in this environment.
If this trend continues, I'd expect a strong close on the day when volume picks up. You would think we would start to see some covering in advance of earnings as well for derisking and profit taking from the shorts. Maybe they will double down though, who knows. All bets are off in this environment.
jesselivenomore
Member
Yes, I've been talking about growth stocks repricing for a few days now. That is definitely a contributing factor and not totally unrelated to problems in the credit markets(it affects everyone, but even moreso for those who need to borrow to grow).
I think most people here see the stock down 40% in a few weeks after analyst downgrades and Model X ramp fears and conclude that the move is nowhere near warranted. If those were the only reasons, I would agree with a high degree of confidence. However, if the reason is because Tesla's ability to raise capital is being questioned due to a tightening credit environment, the situation gets a lot more cloudy and dependent on how the credit markets play out. A lot of ultra bulls, some no longer with us, were so focused on Tesla-specific catalysts that they weren't even capable of conceptualizing these macro risks. Which is what made their "200 bottom" calls so dangerous.
Hopefully the dust settles and credit markets thaw. TSLA would bounce back in that case, and plenty of people will say I told you Tesla would solve the Model X issues, or that I told you the shorts were manipulating SP. When in reality they would be completely oblivious to the root causes of this drop and the risks that were at hand.
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dreamingof3
Member
My theory is shorts have been loading up through the first 6 weeks of this year. They think Tesla is going to fail in a low oil price environment. They dedicate their lives to FUD with multiple users/id's on this forum & ANY other one where they can get people to listen. I will be shocked and I do mean totally shocked if short interest declines. I think we may see 40 million shares short by the 2/15 number. Why are big automakers so worried about Tesla? Why is NDA obsessed with blocking direct Tesla sales? Is it because Tesla offers a superior product?
larmor
Active Member
Do they need to raise capital-- if they just fill orders on 25k MX vehicles and get reservations for M3. Instead of relying on credit, they can point to their vehicles which they can sell or M3 which they plan on selling. Question: will individuals buy M3 or will some large company, uber, etc just reserve 100k of these...
stealthology
Member
dreamingof3
Member
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Tomorrow's short interest figures coupled with the next one will be of extreme significance going forward.
I'm going to assume unchanged or increased short interest unveiled tomorrow. It will show short interest on Jan26, where intraday low was $188. What's interesting is what happened after that. Did a lot of shorts close out after that until today? If so: bye bye future short squeeze. Did short interest increase (shorts piling on during these times of extremely negative sentiment)? If so: the short squeeze spring just got even more compressed/loaded. All this of course assuming TSLA is currently oversold/undervalued.
I'm going to assume unchanged or increased short interest unveiled tomorrow. It will show short interest on Jan26, where intraday low was $188. What's interesting is what happened after that. Did a lot of shorts close out after that until today? If so: bye bye future short squeeze. Did short interest increase (shorts piling on during these times of extremely negative sentiment)? If so: the short squeeze spring just got even more compressed/loaded. All this of course assuming TSLA is currently oversold/undervalued.
mmd
Active Member
Can we please stop whining about shorts and the joke of "whole world is Tesla's enemy" stuff? After a while, it gets extremely annoying.
Focus on the macro and the company financials & execution. That will do everyone a favor. There are some claimed longs who always seem to be posting the negatives, but in a different tone. Could very well be wolves in lambs' clothing.
Focus on the macro and the company financials & execution. That will do everyone a favor. There are some claimed longs who always seem to be posting the negatives, but in a different tone. Could very well be wolves in lambs' clothing.
I know must of us know this, but it's nice to see being published more now.
Tesla Model 3 pricing - Tech Insider
Will the Tesla Model 3 Really Sell for $25,000? - Bloomberg Business
Tesla Model 3 pricing - Tech Insider
Will the Tesla Model 3 Really Sell for $25,000? - Bloomberg Business
jesselivenomore
Member
It is not a guarantee that they would need to raise capital, but certainly a risk of it(which the market will price in) especially if they want to be on time with Model 3 production. And if the only way they avoid raising capital is to push back grow targets, well, take a look at SCTY for how the markets would react to that(badly).
Tesla's valuation for the past 2 years have been based on some assumptions. That it will grow to 500k in 2020, and that the credit markets will be more than happy to fund this growth. If that assumption changes, so will its valuation.
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dc_h
Active Member
We may not know the low until storage is full in Cushing Oklahoma. If that happens the frackers won't have any place to deliver their output. Refiners will pick up spot oil and have it shipped by train for some number, probably south of $20 a barrel. Either frackers start capping wells for a rainy day and Russia and Venezuela agree to cuts on Saudi Arabia's terms, or Cushing fills up. I don't know the day, but it was 60% a year ago and over 80% full now.
I think TSLA will or has broken with oil prices. Looking forward to earnings and hoping the call goes well enough to break the cycle.
I think TSLA will or has broken with oil prices. Looking forward to earnings and hoping the call goes well enough to break the cycle.
Once again I would like to point out the insanity of some of the discussion going on here. If there is any psych major reading these threads, this is your thesis subject, bookmark the pages!
- The "Model 3 will only be a digital render" myth: this all started from Elon's recent comments in Paris. A Tesla owner/reservation holder asked him "when can we see the first pictures of Model 3"? Elon answered, that this would be at the end of the month. This got reported by a TMCer in the forum as "Tesla will show the first pictures of M3 at the end of March", which quickly escalated to the myth of a Model 3 made of ones and zeros only. Granted, Elon also said they will not reveal everything about the car until close to production.
Tesla has stated for a while now the Model 3 will be "unveiled" at the end of March 2016. While they never committed to showing a physical prototype, both the S and the X prototype presentations happened with an actual car being displayed. There is NOTHING indicating the 3 will only be a render. We have already seen design prototypes and clay models under cover, so roughly 18 months before production why wouldn't Tesla show the real thing? More importantly, when did they say they wouldn't? It is quite normal they won't reveal every technical detail or hidden feature for competitive reasons. We didn't know about the new nose, the air filter or the 90kwh battery until the X launch either.
- "Door-gate": sure, it sounds dramatic, but there is no evidence supporting there are FWD issues holding up production. We heard one TMCer talking about a Service Center mentioning a redesign of the hinges, which may or may not have happened late in development or early in production, but in any case, nothing suggest X production has been halted because of this. If it was, i would expect a very large break as such a key component is not trivial to redesign, needs lots of testing and may need new crash tests as well. The only reason this myth is gaining momentum is because it is shamelessly being mixed up with the actual hydraulics redesign/supplier change that happened about a year ago.
- "doors are impossible/expensive to calibrate + sensors are faulty": this has already been debunked, Tesla had to change the adhesive on some of the sensors inside the FWD and has already pushed out a new firmware which took care of calibration. Good God, stop the press!
- The "Model 3 will only be a digital render" myth: this all started from Elon's recent comments in Paris. A Tesla owner/reservation holder asked him "when can we see the first pictures of Model 3"? Elon answered, that this would be at the end of the month. This got reported by a TMCer in the forum as "Tesla will show the first pictures of M3 at the end of March", which quickly escalated to the myth of a Model 3 made of ones and zeros only. Granted, Elon also said they will not reveal everything about the car until close to production.
Tesla has stated for a while now the Model 3 will be "unveiled" at the end of March 2016. While they never committed to showing a physical prototype, both the S and the X prototype presentations happened with an actual car being displayed. There is NOTHING indicating the 3 will only be a render. We have already seen design prototypes and clay models under cover, so roughly 18 months before production why wouldn't Tesla show the real thing? More importantly, when did they say they wouldn't? It is quite normal they won't reveal every technical detail or hidden feature for competitive reasons. We didn't know about the new nose, the air filter or the 90kwh battery until the X launch either.
- "Door-gate": sure, it sounds dramatic, but there is no evidence supporting there are FWD issues holding up production. We heard one TMCer talking about a Service Center mentioning a redesign of the hinges, which may or may not have happened late in development or early in production, but in any case, nothing suggest X production has been halted because of this. If it was, i would expect a very large break as such a key component is not trivial to redesign, needs lots of testing and may need new crash tests as well. The only reason this myth is gaining momentum is because it is shamelessly being mixed up with the actual hydraulics redesign/supplier change that happened about a year ago.
- "doors are impossible/expensive to calibrate + sensors are faulty": this has already been debunked, Tesla had to change the adhesive on some of the sensors inside the FWD and has already pushed out a new firmware which took care of calibration. Good God, stop the press!
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