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Nope. This is what Tesla/Elon has ALWAYS communicated. No change there. Literally part of every single Elon answer about Model 3 for the past 2-3 years.
jesselivenomore
Member
One last thing:
If the credit markets are indeed the driving force of this move, the ER should be mostly if not completely positive. Because that would mean there are no major company specific issues, and there's no way they would mention potential capital raises until it is absolutely necessary, and that isn't for at least another couple of quarters. In fact they have every incentive to reassure the markets of its company fundamentals to boost share price in case of a need to raise capital in the future. The markets may not believe this in the medium term if credit markets continue to deteriorate, but at least in the short term for ER alone it should be positive.
This would also make sense why Elon exercised those options last week.
If the credit markets are indeed the driving force of this move, the ER should be mostly if not completely positive. Because that would mean there are no major company specific issues, and there's no way they would mention potential capital raises until it is absolutely necessary, and that isn't for at least another couple of quarters. In fact they have every incentive to reassure the markets of its company fundamentals to boost share price in case of a need to raise capital in the future. The markets may not believe this in the medium term if credit markets continue to deteriorate, but at least in the short term for ER alone it should be positive.
This would also make sense why Elon exercised those options last week.
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They still have to spend a lot of R&D on the Model 3, build prototypes and the production line.
Runarbt
Active Member
Don't count on the 25k price for the 3. Tesla has already used up 100k of their 200k quota for the EV incentive before the start of this year. If they are doing well this year, there will be another 80k+ gone for the quota, leaving under 20k cars starting 2017 able to get the incentive, which would be gone in the first quarter. Then the phase out kicks in. If they keep their words on the Model 3 and really starts delivery by the end of 2017, only the first few k of the Model 3 might get half or a quarter of the $7.5k incentive. That's why Tesla never use the after incentive price (like GM does), because it's just not gonna happen for the vast majority of Model 3 buyers.
Update: as many corrected me below, I forgot the 200k quota is for US deliveries only. Model 3 buyers in the US have a good chance to have the full incentive until end of 2018.
Update: as many corrected me below, I forgot the 200k quota is for US deliveries only. Model 3 buyers in the US have a good chance to have the full incentive until end of 2018.
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Kind of like the Dos Equis ads....I don't often agree with mmd, but when I do, it is likely going to be about a conspiracy theory.
Ask LNKD investors about the "conspiracy" against their stock....or is there a huge anti-technologist shorting conspiracy? Shorts have an investment theory regarding Tesla that is radically different than most of the perspectives here. Shorts would look at my trading history and be scandalized by how I've made money on long calls the past 3 years and somewhat smug about the butt kicking they've given most of us the last month and a half. Both theories are valid and neither will likely be 100% true.
I think Tesla continues to innovate, disrupt and solves its execution/over promising issues. David Stockman, Bob Lutz, Paolo, et al thinks the world is a better place without Tesla. Just because they are wrong, doesn't mean they are leading a cadre of followers. Most people wouldn't follow any of them out of a burning building, much less into a trade. Let us agree to disagree.
The quota is US deliveries. So they have only used up 50k. And it phases out over 2 quarters. But, your point generally stands by the end of 2018 assuming it starts end of 2017 there will be no federal tax credit on the Model 3.
I'm thinking that GM and Nissan have incentives to change the rules... as the rules currently stand, they punish the pioneers and rewards the laggards. I think the credit should phase out whenever any auto manufacturer hits the number, not just the first ones. Set that to 500,000 or so.
Tesla has not sold 100k vehicles in the US. The federal tax credit is only for vehicles sold in the US, so there will still be tax credit when the Model 3 shows up, if it shows up sometime near it's scheduled release. First Model 3 deliveries should get the full tax credit by most estimations.
Alpha and Beta are just points in the whole R&D timeline.
And you don't just build one prototype. Chevy Bolt had 50, other manufacturers and platforms have several hundred.
Tesla can't afford those Model S and Model X kind of ramps. With a lower margin car and higher volume you don't have the same luxury for errors.
It's also generally assumed that the lower priced model 3 will at the earliest arrive at least 6 months after it's loaded brothers. It's very possible no entry model 3 will qualify for the federal US tax credit (unless the rules change in the meantime)
I agree the cutoff should be at the same time for every car maker. But it would be better to give the incentive to the first 5 million EVs. Or like we have here in Norway, have incentives for every EV sold through 2017, then start ramping down the incentives.
What would make sense - and also for the EU - would be to tie incentives to EVs reaching a % of the overall fleet. Preferably a high percent, like 25% or 50%.
jhm
Well-Known Member
The World Is Not Running Out Of Storage Space For Oil | OilPrice.com
This article address this issue. Storage is being added all over the globe, about 230 million barrels of capacity, half in China, and including 32 million in Texas. So the world should be in good shape to hold 3.3 billion by end of 2016. Essentially, the glut and the steepness of the futures curve is paying for the creation of new capacity. I estimate that it is paying over $40/b for incremental capacity. If that is sufficient to build out the capacity, then in theory there is no real risk that the world could run out of capacity. It would just keep building more. Where this theory breaks down is if the futures curve flattens out, then the stored oil starts flooding the market. This all depends on future demand expectations.
So to put this back around to producers. They are essentially paying the market to store their product until it it is needed. They are accepting a low price today to avoid shutting in their wells. But in the ground is the perfect place to store oil. So a producer can make a rational choice to shut in an oil well today. Leave the oil there for 3 to 10 years, and when the price is right drill the well a second time to resume production. So is it better to store oil in a facility for a few years or to redrill a well in a few years. One can do an NPV analysis on both options to aid in making the choice. So for now we have to conclude that storage is cheap enough that it beats the shut in option. But it could also be that many oil producers still believe that prices will recover quickly enough that storage beats shut in. So it may well be that producers just don't believe the futures curve that says $49/b won't come until 2023! I think too many are betting against the futures market. But as the inventory increases, that becomes a really bad bet.
dreamingof3
Member
1/29/16 short interest is now released. As I and many others have projected, short interest increased 1,178,261.
Granted, this is for 1/29/16 and we have seen a huge drop since then that could have led to some covering. I suspect we have many more shorts now though and not less.
New short interest 30,287,107 unbelievable.
Granted, this is for 1/29/16 and we have seen a huge drop since then that could have led to some covering. I suspect we have many more shorts now though and not less.
New short interest 30,287,107 unbelievable.
hockeythug
Active Member
Alpha and beta were still deemed "probable of achievement" as of 3Q15. We will still if that changes for the year end statement.
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