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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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There is no reason to not use tech they already developed that would have a big gross margin. I think a fully optioned 3 sec 0-60 s model 3 will happen but it will be expensive.

And that's exactly the flagship M3 needs. It will be a very high GM niche product that will also provide a nice halo to the entire M3 line. This will be the car you'll see most often reviewed, the car many young guys will dream about before they order that sweet deal of a mid-range model. Think P90DL reviews turning into maxed out 70D orders.

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Did this thread become the general Gen 3 vehicle discussion thread?
Where did the short term TSLA price movements thread go?

Believe me TSLA entered into a phase when pretty soon it is all going to be about M3. That launch will be pivotal... So since it's less than 2 months out, the discussion is perfectly justified. Mods will have the final say on that though.
 
Will the smaller battery allow that same kind of performance?

Depends on the battery. That's the thing with electric vehicles. If they got confidence with cell lifecycle and they got chemistry down that can handle occasional high C rage discharge, it's not going to cost that much to have fairly stupid acceleration numbers. They now have statistics from Model S and will have from X so they can find a sweet spot fairly well. Not everyone is racing full speed off of every stoplight so enabling higher draw might produce good reviews and not much downside.
 
Picking up our sigX today! I believe Elon on production problems aliviated and ramp up beginning. Have some June 200's so hoping m3 reservations are through the roof. Getting the word out at work. Many young people at work will put deposit down. At least 10 of about 200. Trying to convince more of them. And yes they want a fast version, that will beat others in class.
I think we will also get a bump in price when we get reviews of X and the world will seek how great it is. Same happened when S came out. Also hoping X will be at the stores on m3 day with the fwd up for display to the world.
We need some hedge funds to start buying anticipating 200-300 price by eoy which will give them a good return any way you look at it. Just need execution, Elon not making idle predictions anymore, very cautious on call, not giving out details. Just a thought first production line does around 1k cars I believe. The second line with many more robots should do 1.5k at least so the 1600-1800 with bursting to 2k+ at times should be achieved and therefore hit the 90k level. Especially second half of year. I'll post pic of our X later today with fwd up and hopefully the stock also!!!
 
Picking up our sigX today! I believe Elon on production problems aliviated and ramp up beginning. Have some June 200's so hoping m3 reservations are through the roof. Getting the word out at work. Many young people at work will put deposit down. At least 10 of about 200. Trying to convince more of them. And yes they want a fast version, that will beat others in class.
I think we will also get a bump in price when we get reviews of X and the world will seek how great it is. Same happened when S came out. Also hoping X will be at the stores on m3 day with the fwd up for display to the world.
We need some hedge funds to start buying anticipating 200-300 price by eoy which will give them a good return any way you look at it. Just need execution, Elon not making idle predictions anymore, very cautious on call, not giving out details. Just a thought first production line does around 1k cars I believe. The second line with many more robots should do 1.5k at least so the 1600-1800 with bursting to 2k+ at times should be achieved and therefore hit the 90k level. Especially second half of year. I'll post pic of our X later today with fwd up and hopefully the stock also!!!

Congrats! Try to get some information about the hold-up :)

As for the lines: There is two body/stamping/wielding lines: the old S line with capacity of 1200 a week and then the new line that is currently only stamping X (capacity of the new line is vague, numbers range from 2000 a week to 3300 a week). Assembly thereafter is shared.

The idea as communicated before by Tesla is to shut down the old S line and have it also move to the new line, but that has currently not happened. This question was also dodged on the CC.
I think they need to invest already this year to extend to more than 2000 a week next year. it can also be as simple as adding another shift. Some factory tour people might have this info?
 
There will be a truly huge number of reservations. I'm predicting 200,000 in the first 24 hours. Remember, Tesla is taking reservations from the global market. 1 Million reservations before the first delivery is highly likely. They will use this money to expand production capacity and may hit 500,000/year before 2020.

TSLA will be over 250 by the end of April.
Being a realist here for a moment.
Bears will be bears regardless.
So even if there are 500K reservations by summer, the bears will start highlighting all of the "Tesla Killers" that will appear in greater numbers as press releases from the other big names.
There will always be some reason, somewhere to hold that position.
 
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maxpain

Interesting 'Max Pain' graph starting tomorrow. Very little difference from about 115 to 135

Thanks for posting. What impact is this likely to have on SP today? I might put in a "hail Mary" buy order to see if I can accumulate some more shares on sale. So maybe $130 would execute? or if it doesn't, I'll have a look at "diversifying" with SCTY :)
 
Thanks for posting. What impact is this likely to have on SP today? I might put in a "hail Mary" buy order to see if I can accumulate some more shares on sale. So maybe $130 would execute? or if it doesn't, I'll have a look at "diversifying" with SCTY :)

On high volume days as we have had the last couple days it has less effect than low volume days. Reason: Market makers have better chance of manipulating price to their benefit.

It is a reference point that I like to look at but I do not use it as a sole reason to buy or sell.

The US stock futures would appear to 'trump' the ability of the market makers to move the price for their maximum benefit this week.
 
Yeah, I agree ! I don't know why they are doing this ? Maybe to get 5 PC of those wanting a Model 3 to be impatient and make an impulse decision to order an S or an X immediately? That's the only thing that could make sense. And, perhaps get media to cover the launch with throngs of people waiting in line like for Apple launches? Which would also make sense...get a lot of free media for the brand and the launch ?

Looks as if you have a pretty good idea why they are doing this :wink:
 
I am sure there will be people what want to make more than one reservation. Both genuine and those who hope to make a quick profit using early reservations.
The number of reservations could explode if they allow that. However I assume Tesla does not want "another China"

Europe turning greener and greener after the bloodbath of yesterday. Now +2%. Dax on its way to 9.000
 
Thought it would be fun to start thinking of what options I would get on the 3 and how much it would cost. Here is what my config would look like and what I think the options will cost

Option Price
Model 3 $ 35,000.00
paintsolid black No Charge
roofPano $ 1,500.00
battery75kwh No Charge
DriveRear No Charge
Wheels17"4 season No Charge
AutopilotEnable $ 2,500.00
Seats Leather Ngen $ 2,500.00
$ 41,500.00
 
dreaming - Fun idea, I think the base battery will be between 50 and 60 kWh though. Recently for Model S, it cost $3,000 to add 5 kWh from 85-90 or $600/kWh and right now it's $13K to add 20 kWh, or $650/kWh. My guess is that in 2 years you might see $3-500/kWh as the retail price to increase pack size. Hopefully less.
 
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